Running From Weather

[neilpride]

Originally Posted by Four Coconuts

Forum,

The situation in the Virgin Islands, St. Martin/Marteen, Barbuda, Antigua, etc. is horrific. I spent several years sailing among these islands and truly feel for their predicament. The purpose of this post is that I am struggling to understand why many boats that had crews on board and could theoretically sail on an instance would choose to see the storm through instead of sailing south out of harms way. I understand that 20/20 applies, but why not get out of Dodge?

The knee jerk reaction is to say that conditions degenerate to fast to take action, but Grenada is only 400 miles south, and you really only need to get 300 miles south (36-48 hours) to avoid the serious waves and wind. Having watched the intervening winds and waves between Irma and Jose there appears to be a nice beam reach with moderate seas opportunity to get out of harms way. Why are not the boats with crews taking advantage of it? Please help me understand what I'm missing....

85 to 90% of the boats in the box are stored ashore for the season , the rest are charter boats and the few who live and work in the islands with some few exceptions , before Luis lots of cruisers opt for the Cane partys at the islands in hurricane season, after Luis , Hugo , Lenny etc,, cruisers feel some kind of respect for the Cane season and choose to sail south of the box,saying that i doubt in sept and in the trail of a CAT 5 monster anyone with a healty brain can opt for a 24 to 36 hours run to the south, its not imposible, but Heroes are out of the box in Cane season...

[mikedefieslife]

I've always wonder when people say oh there's a storm coming, I'd better go this way or that way to get away from it.

A sailboat travels at a brisk walking pace. Seldom do I hear people in the street say, oh it's starting to snow if I walk in this direction I can get away from it into milder weather.

👍

[TJ D]

It feels a little distasteful to be talking about this so soon, but Ken, Unciv, etc. are right on this one, at least when it comes to cruising boats that are crewed.

First, cruising/summering in the E. Caribbean north of Trinidad/maybe Grenada during hurricane season is simply inviting this kind of thing. It happens again and again-anybody who decides to stay on board over the summer in a place like the Leewards, for whatever reason, has to be aware that they are risking getting clobbered.

Second, I also think that for a crewed, ready to sail boat, high-tailing it to the south at about 4 days out would have been easily achievable. Even if there turned out to be no need to do so, write it off as a little summer cruise. Cyclone tracks rarely take a big, unexpected dive toward the equator, as has been previously noted.

I would say that the additional risk is pretty small. In the unlikely event that a southerly track change did happen, you'd probably be no worse off holing up at one of the southern islands.

Anyway, I get why somebody would be hesitant to put to sea, but this one was pretty solid on the track forecast all along. It does seem that taking a shot at avoidance would have been a hell of a lot better choice. It's very possible that many of the active cruisers did exactly that, but we haven't heard much about them with all the other developments.

Boats stored ashore/charter boats? Too bad for them, for sure, but as noted before, if you keep your boat in a very active hurricane zone, losing the boat should not be something that comes as a shock to anyone.

Anyway, at this point, the loss of boats is really trivial compared to the human tragedy that's still unfolding. It's important to remember that. Boats, no matter how much we love them, are just things, after all.

TJ

[danielamartindm]

At the time a hurricane rears its head and takes aim at where we are, how many boat owners have a bluewater-capable crew and boat that has been safety inspected, rigged, and stocked for a circumnavigation? To me, heading for blue water to escape a hurricane would seem to demand the same level of preparation and safety considerations as at least an oceanic crossing. And even given that level of preparedness, is your vessel really worth risking your life in a major way?

[TJ D]

Originally Posted by danielamartindm

At the time a hurricane rears its head and takes aim at where we are, how many boat owners have a bluewater-capable crew and boat that has been safety inspected, rigged, and stocked for a circumnavigation? To me, heading for blue water to escape a hurricane would seem to demand the same level of preparation and safety considerations as at least an oceanic crossing. And even given that level of preparedness, is your vessel really worth risking your life in a major way?

Well, the thing is that this isn't really accurate. A few hundred miles (or less, depending on where you were) down island would have solved it all in this case. Nobody's talking about setting sail while the storm's imminent (I hope). In this case, the forecast track was quite stable through a lot of consecutive model runs, and the call to sail south could have been made at 72-96 hours out. Later than that would have been indeed pushing it.

Remember that it's only about 200NM from the BVI's to Martinique. This would have made the difference between being holed up somewhere safe and being in the middle of a catastrophe.

Hindsight's 20/20, and it would have been a terrible decision to grapple with.

All the more reason not to be on board during the hurricane season in these places if there's not an overwhelming need to do so.

[danielamartindm]

Originally Posted by TJ D

Well, the thing is that this isn't really accurate. A few hundred miles (or less, depending on where you were) down island would have solved it all in this case. Nobody's talking about setting sail while the storm's imminent (I hope). In this case, the forecast track was quite stable through a lot of consecutive model runs, and the call to sail south could have been made at 72-96 hours out. Later than that would have been indeed pushing it.

Remember that it's only about 200NM from the BVI's to Martinique. This would have made the difference between being holed up somewhere safe and being in the middle of a catastrophe.

Hindsight's 20/20, and it would have been a terrible decision to grapple with.

All the more reason not to be on board during the hurricane season in these places if there's not an overwhelming need to do so.

In THIS case, the forecast track was fairly stable. That is not always the case, and the storm could have made the same decision to track further south that your hypothetical sailor did. Everyone has a personal comfort factor when it comes to risking their lives.

[Steadman Uhlich]

This image shows the path of the 1906 Florida Keys Hurricane, that killed hundreds of people (most were on boats) and was very destructive at the time.

This hurricane started near Nicaragua and then looped, going across Florida twice.

My point?
Not all Hurricanes track in a straight line or gentle curve or are predictable in their course.

[Kenomac]

Here's actual video footage of two cruisers "running from weather" in Croatia. Had they remained 150 miles south five days ago staring into the headlights, it was pretty much guaranteed that they'd be hit by 40-60mph winds over a two day period beginning Sunday. The boat is traveling at the breakneck speed of 6.5 knots, no equipment failures or lives placed in jeopardy today, but last evening, a seagull landed on the wind indicator and bent it. So when a safe anchorage is reached, the cruiser who shot the video will need to go up the mast and make a repair.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ_givDWIGY

[Taichungman]

Originally Posted by SV Windrush II

I do not think there is a right or wrong answer to this. For me it is my own decision and calculated risk. If i believe i can get out of the way of a storm i will pull anchor and get the hell out of there. If it looks to risky i may secure the boat the best i can and run. But this piticular storm is on the same track as predicted for over a week now on my weather charts. If i was there i would be sitting on a beach somewhere in the Grenadines by now watching the chaos on the news, instead of trying to find all the pieces of my boat.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I agree that it's a calculated risk but that is what skippers have to do. And knowing this hurricane was huge and it's predicted track, the best risk would have been to sail South. There was time but decisions have to be made quickly.

Last year, Sept. 28th while anchored near Stocking Is, as crew on a SF50, I was sitting in the cockpit drinking a beer when the skipper said there's a tropical depression near Barbados, "let's leave." Our destination was Annapolis Md. for the boat show so we took off on a heading directly for Cape Hatteras.

By the 29th the tropical storm was named Hurricane Matthew. By the 30th it was a Category 5 hurricane. Of course we left in enough time and were safe in Annapolis as Matthew made it way up the East Coast.

We had left Cape Town in July knowing it would be hurricane season in the Caribbean when we got there. The skippers strategy was always either to outrun it or get out of its way and he knew this when he left CT.

I don't think you have to be a victim to these hurricanes if you are on your boat, your have weather info and your boat is prepared to sail.

[sandy stone]

For a good example of a sailboat going to sea to avoid a hurricane, look at the story of the Fantome. To the rest of you suggesting moving the boat, do you live in a hurricane zone? Have you actually experienced one, as opposed to watching YouTube videos? Have you watched the predicted track of a storm shift all over the place over the course of a week? And you would still take that kind of chance, to save a boat? Well, it's your choice, let us all know how it works out. I think it's pretty irresponsible to criticize somebody in the actual situation, not behind a keyboard, who has made a difficult but sensible decision.
To Kenomac, your comparison of a 50-knot storm to a 150-knot hurricane leaves me speechless.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by sandy stone

For a good example of a sailboat going to sea to avoid a hurricane, look at the story of the Fantome. To the rest of you suggesting moving the boat, do you live in a hurricane zone? Yes, been hit by three.Have you actually experienced one, as opposed to watching YouTube videos?Yes, been hit by three including Bob who's eyeball went directly over us. Have you watched the predicted track of a storm shift all over the place over the course of a week? yes, many times.And you would still take that kind of chance, to save a boat? Yes, doing it today for 40-60 knot winds.Well, it's your choice, let us all know how it works out. So far, so good.I think it's pretty irresponsible to criticize somebody in the actual situation, not behind a keyboard, who has made a difficult but sensible decision.
To Kenomac, your comparison of a 50-knot storm to a 150-knot hurricane leaves me speechlessThe eye of the hurricane (a very small area) is what packs the most punch, most only experience the tropical storm winds in the 30-60mph range. You should know that. Maybe you should watch my video to see what "running from weather" actually looks like when done properly..

The chance of being caught in the eye of a hurricane while "running from the weather" is about as remote as being struck by lightning, unless I do something stupid like head directly into it.

Watch and learn....

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ_givDWIGY

[a64pilot]

I actually ran from this thing almost two weeks ago.
I was in Stuart Fl waiting for a weather window to head North to Brunswick Ga, which calls itself a "Hurricane Hole".
Now of course it was not much back then, but looked like it could become a storm and I was really, really nervous about being in S Fl this time of the year. I was nervous enough that we went offshore in one leg as opposed to meandering up here.

Moral of the story is that 24 hours ago, I was in ground zero, storm was forecasted to pass just offshore of Brunswick which would give us the worst storm surge possible, and I don't think this place could take much storm surge, it appeared that I had jumped from the frying pan into the fire.

However, hopefully if the new track is what actually happens, we may survive.

Oftentimes when it becomes apparent that you need to run, it's too late, most of us don't travel any faster than a quick walk.

[TJ D]

Originally Posted by sandy stone

For a good example of a sailboat going to sea to avoid a hurricane, look at the story of the Fantome. To the rest of you suggesting moving the boat, do you live in a hurricane zone? Have you actually experienced one, as opposed to watching YouTube videos? Have you watched the predicted track of a storm shift all over the place over the course of a week? And you would still take that kind of chance, to save a boat? Well, it's your choice, let us all know how it works out. I think it's pretty irresponsible to criticize somebody in the actual situation, not behind a keyboard, who has made a difficult but sensible decision.
To Kenomac, your comparison of a 50-knot storm to a 150-knot hurricane leaves me speechless.

I think that this discussion is, or at least was, about getting out of the way of this hurricane, specifically.

Further, the context, at least as I took it, was the decision to sail from one of the E. Caribbean islands.

In this case, with the stability of the models, I think that it would have been an easy call to make. Go S at least a couple hundred miles, and life is much, much better. Hunkering down right in front of a cat 5 storm seems too be a drastically worse option than moving toward safety while the storm is over 72 hours out.

Hey, to each their own. For my part, had I been there, I would have sailed south, quickly and early.

But, I wouldn't have been there in the first place. I've been on board full time for over 20 years, and have always found a way to not be in a hurricane area for hurricane season, with the exception of using Puerto Vallarta as my summer berth for many years. That place is extremely well protected, however, far different than the Caribbean.

That said, nobody here has made a blanket statement that it's ALWAYS or even OFTEN the proper course of action to go to sea in a hurricane. But in this case, sitting around one of the affected islands was probably a poor choice, if one had the ability to leave.

Certainly, the Fantome disaster has no similarities to this situation.

[john61ct]

**Most** boat owners are barely sailors as we understand it here.

Most boats are not maintained well enough with a ready crew standing by.

Most owners would not dream of intentionally risking their lives to save their boat, many are wealthy or at least have insurance after all.

Most **people** are not equipped to make major decisions quickly, and 'twas ever thus.

Darwin just doesn't thin the herd so much anymore, so the less fit remain among us.

[TJ D]

And, as Neil Pride said earlier, there are very few cruisers in the hurricane zone these days. Most of what we're seeing destroyed are stored boats or charter boats. I just noticed his post.

I believe that he's a resident of St. Martin or somewhere nearby, so I believe that he's speaking the truth.

Fact is, there may not have been many occupied cruising boats there in the first place.