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Old 18-08-2010, 01:50   #166
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I've edited stuff to cut to the important details and BOLDED some I think are relevant

Quote:
set sail for Niue, about 250 nm away to the ENE. The winds were from the E and the SE so that we had to beat into them and tack a few times. The winds were fairly constant, ranging from about 12 to about 20 knots,…we put the first reef in the main but used the full jib. We also used the lee daggerboard.

. The skies were still cloudy but some time after 1400 we noticed that a portion of the cloud cover to the East was especially dark. I turned on the radar at the 12-nm range and it showed rain clouds almost all around with rain clouds to our NE, E, SE, and NW, but the radar displayed no apparent difference or special intensity in the dark cloud. Nevertheless we were somewhat wary of the dark cloud and paid extra attention to our monitoring of the weather. The barometer had dropped only from 1000 mb to 998 mb over the last few hours, which was no cause for alarm, and I hoped that the dark cloud held intense rain that would wash the boat and knock down the seas so that we could shake out the reef in the main and speed up.

Suddenly just after 1500, while observing the anemometer (wind speed and direction indicator), which was displaying apparent and not true wind since we were beating, I noticed that the wind was backing to the S so that rather than beating into the wind, suddenly we were on a beam reach. I began turning the autopilot so that we would remain heading up. Then the wind speed jumped from 18 knots to 25, then to 30, then to 35 in the blink of an eye, both Glen and I yelled "let's reef" and we bounded out into the cockpit. When I saw the anemometer in the cockpit a couple of seconds later, the wind speed showed 45 knots, so I moved to the autopilot and again tried to head the boat up into the wind, while Glen tried to reef the jib. The wind was ferocious, however, and Glen could not control the jib outhaul line so that it started flapping wildly. I was afraid we would rip the sail (which I did last year because of my own operator error) and so shouted at him, "What are you doing?", then reached over and closed the jammer cleat that prevented more line from getting loose. Realizing finally that the wind was overpowering us to a perilous extent, I next moved towards the mainsheet to release it, but in a flash we were up in the air, flying a hull as if we were on a Hobie Cat, and I lost my balance and started tumbling to port. We hung at that position -- roughly 45 deg. -- for a second then over we went. I used the S word. Loudly.
 

Final Thoughts
Glen and I were unlucky that such an intense wind hit us,

I have now had the following disaster experiences at sea:
  • Was on a catamaran that sunk to deck level due to a maintenance oversight in False Bay, South Africa, 2001, and was rescued by the SA Navy.
  • Was on a catamaran (the same as above) that was breaking up and the hulls separating from the bridgedeck, on a voyage planned to be from South Africa to Portugal, about 2007, and we barely made it into port in Namibia.
  • Was alone on a motorcat in Labrador that lost both engines and was floating among icebergs and was rescued by local fishermen.
  • Was on a catamaran that lost both headstays.
  • Was on a catamaran that ripped its jib.
  • Was knocked overboard by the boom in an accidental jibe.
  • Was on a catamaran that had a trampoline track torn away.
  • Was on a catamaran that had three stanchions knocked over when deploying a sea anchor.
  • Was on a catamaran that lost its hydraulic steering.
  • Was on a catamaran that lost its cable steering.
  • Was on a catamaran on which a radial drive (quadrant) came loose from the rudder post.
  • And now, was on the largest known cruising catamaran to capsize, saved by NZ rescue aircraft and a passing freighter.
I don't blame anyone who is reluctant to go sailing with me.

Anna - Anna lost at sea -- Kelly OK
Perhaps he could consider giving up sailing before he kills someone.

Most stupid quote of the century: "Realizing finally that the wind was overpowering us to a perilous extent, I next moved towards the mainsheet to release it,"

He saw the wind pick up incrimentally and change to a beam reach and yet he played with the jib instead of dumping the mainsheet.
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Old 18-08-2010, 05:00   #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkJ View Post
I've edited stuff to cut to the important details and BOLDED some I think are relevant

Perhaps he could consider giving up sailing before he kills someone.

Most stupid quote of the century: "Realizing finally that the wind was overpowering us to a perilous extent, I next moved towards the mainsheet to release it,"

He saw the wind pick up incrimentally and change to a beam reach and yet he played with the jib instead of dumping the mainsheet.
What happened to the 60 plus knots reported in earlier posts. Then again 45 is certainly enough to knock this vessel over with only one reef.

Am I reading this right "the sheets are in jammers"?
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Old 18-08-2010, 05:32   #168
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I'm really glad they both survived with relatively minor injuries. It's always difficult (for me) to ascribe fault but if Kelly's recollections are to be relied upon, lack of situational awareness and a fundamental failure to comprehend the forces operating on the boat have to be a major part in this disaster.
I don't think the wreck can be ascribed to the boat being a cat, though perhaps a monohull may have been a bit more forgiving.

P.
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Old 18-08-2010, 05:35   #169
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What happened to the 60 plus knots reported in earlier posts. Then again 45 is certainly enough to knock this vessel over with only one reef.

Am I reading this right "the sheets are in jammers"?
If the full report was posted I believe he said the last wind speed they saw was 62 knots but they believe the wind had grown stronger by the time they capsized.
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Old 18-08-2010, 06:22   #170
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Yes, this is a quote from the owner's account of the incident...

Quote:
Later Glen said that the highest wind speed he thinks he saw (he is not entirely certain) was 62 knots, and that was some moments before we were blown over so the wind speed was likely much higher.
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Old 18-08-2010, 06:34   #171
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Yes. I should have left that in.
The point being when you see the wind going "18 knots to 25, then to 30, then to 35" you dump the main before it gets to 45 let alone above...

As for Paige's thoughts: I agree Good to have them both well and alive. But with his previous experience of incidents perhaps some people would begin to ascribing fault, or at least a pattern of failures that could deserve significant retraining.


I was thinking about another thread about outboards and remembering one guy 'fixed' his outboard so it would go much faster than the manufaturer designed. The engine finally failed. A few months later he sank his boat. I wonder if there is a correlation?




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Old 18-08-2010, 06:56   #172
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I wonder if he had insurance. You would think if he did he would try to paint a picture that didn't make operator error so obvious.

Fishwifes use of the term "situational awareness" is astute. I don't care if its sailing, driving a car, mountain climbing, skiing, or whatever, for most people they feel impending danger approaching and respond to decrease risk. This sailor must feel it but the need to push the envelope higher overrides his fear.
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Old 18-08-2010, 07:29   #173
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Mark, as I asked in a previous post.

"Where do you find more worthy sailors?"

I'll ask another question. How do you prevent lazyness, ignorance, suprise, bravado, or simply going to the can while on watch from bringing about another accident?

My last question. Have you ever "dipped the spreaders"?


Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkJ View Post
I've edited stuff to cut to the important details and BOLDED some I think are relevant

Perhaps he could consider giving up sailing before he kills someone.

Most stupid quote of the century: "Realizing finally that the wind was overpowering us to a perilous extent, I next moved towards the mainsheet to release it,"

He saw the wind pick up incrimentally and change to a beam reach and yet he played with the jib instead of dumping the mainsheet.
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Old 18-08-2010, 07:57   #174
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Originally Posted by Joli View Post
Mark, as I asked in a previous post.

"Where do you find more worthy sailors?"
With people who have a track record that does not include breaking so many boats over a decade or more.


I'll ask another question. How do you prevent lazyness, ignorance, suprise, bravado, or simply going to the can while on watch from bringing about another accident?


By sailing more conservativly, more within the capacities of the boat I'm sailing and with a larger margin of error.



My last question. Have you ever "dipped the spreaders"?

No I have not. And I will ensure I will not
Now, one thing I will never say is that I am a better sailor than others. Maybe its this that gives me an edge: As Clint Eastwood said as Dirty Harry: 'A mans gotta know his limitations'. I try to sail within mine and, hopefully, the boats'.
We had a thunderstorm just a few weeks ago that I thought was over 60 knots for more than an hour. We were sailing close hauled to it as I was trying like all hell to get around the edge of it. I saw the thing coming too, as these people did, and I had my deep second reef in the main and the bearest snippet of genoa out. When the winid vastly outperformed the wind meter I was able to keep the main depowered.
I was already on deck. I already had woken Nicolle up, I was already in wet weather geer and that included sneekers which I dont normamly wear. I was already clipped on. I had already checked the decks for stray lines so I could use the engine. Nic was on stand-by in her wet weather geer sitting on the floor of the saloon.

The boat overpowered the autopilot and I was hand steering. Thats good too because on my boat when that happens theres something else that helps as a safety factor: she rounds up.

When we were in the Pacific we got knocked around by some of these sort of squalls too and we had an instant reaction: Lets the sheets fly!
The noise and flogging doesnt matter. Just depower the boat then fix up the sails as quick as can be.

Other people obviously sail in a far different way than me. I do the 'softly, softly catchee monkey" as I just can't afford all the repairs this chap has had and I can afford the time. Because my time is free

Now, let me *Touch wood* as I don't like talking about heavy weather.



Now to cap it off I have attached todays weather for here. We are anchored in a bay open to the SSE to SSW. What would you have done? Stayed on the boat, or gone to Monaco for the day?
Well, it was a no brainer for me. Stay right on the boat cos if they are predicting 28kts at 1600 it may just come through at 1000 just after we have gotten on the train. Now whats the problem with that? - Apart from the fact its 1600 and there ain't a breath of wind, sunny skies and would have been a perfect day at the beach!! LOL

And the latest weather report shows is diminishing rapidly.


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Old 18-08-2010, 08:06   #175
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I find it hard to believe you've never gone Chinese, you raced a bit haven't you?

So are you saying that unless you've been sailing and racing for 35 years like you and I it's not prudent to go cruising?



Congrats on being in the Med, we are very jealous.
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Old 18-08-2010, 08:16   #176
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Someone mentioned complacency - I think there may be a factor here but not the whole story.. Having read Kelly's personal account three times now, I'm still unable to find any indication that he comprehends the causes of the boat flipping. He knew a storm was coming. He didn't see any need to reef further than the one reef he had in the main. He left the jib unfurled. I don't see any thoughts about 'what could happen?' and I don't get the impression that he's asking 'how did that happen?'
Like Mark, I could never say that I'm a better sailor than someone else - but I did learn the hard way during my dinghy sailing days. Reduce sail before you really need to, if you fail in that and are caught unawares, let go the sheets.

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Old 18-08-2010, 08:16   #177
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So are you saying that unless you've been sailing and racing for 35 years like you and I it's not prudent to go cruising?

No, I'm saying if one has had 12 dangerous incidents like he has detailed in 10 years then he should give it up beofre he kills someone because he is like a cow bell. A ding-a-ling with no brain.

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Congrats on being in the Med, we are very jealous.
Man, you'd love it here
Its really been fun These French are a pretty civilized mob.


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Old 18-08-2010, 08:25   #178
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I don't want to impugn the skills of these sailors, but I will say that one of the disadvantages of a cat offshore is that they do take more hand-holding by the crew. The crew needs to be extra vigilant and skilled. On my cat my rule was always to reef way early, even to the point of taking in sail at sunset if I didn't have a sure forecast for the night. That made a cat more tiring offshore. The sails were always going up and down. You couldn't hang onto sail through a squall like you can in a mono. The rule has got to be that if you're remotely thinking about taking in a reef or easing off the time to do it is now. I have been hit by sudden squalls offshore that came from nowhere and caught us with sails aback, preventers tied down, and everything in a horrible tangle. Once, on our mono, this knocked us right down with the boat pinned because the sails were completely aback and tied off. Of course, in the midst of trying to release the jib sheet rapidly I got my hand caught inbetween the sheet and winch, which further delayed releasing things (and hurt like H***). It would have been a nasty moment on a multi, but was not really dangerous for a heavy mono.
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Old 18-08-2010, 08:33   #179
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But......there's always a but isn't there.

They reported sailing in the same soup for the past 24 hours, they saw a dark spot but when they looked at the radar they saw nothing different. So the question begs why would they sail any differently then the previous 24 hours? It sounds like the gust that took them over happened in less time it took to get out the door.

Honestly, I expect my wife and I would have been sailing the boat the exact same way and would have "not" enjoyed the "come to Jesus" moment that ensued.

Quote:
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Someone mentioned complacency - I think there may be a factor here but not the whole story.. Having read Kelly's personal account three times now, I'm still unable to find any indication that he comprehends the causes of the boat flipping. He knew a storm was coming. He didn't see any need to reef further than the one reef he had in the main. He left the jib unfurled. I don't see any thoughts about 'what could happen?' and I don't get the impression that he's asking 'how did that happen?'
Like Mark, I could never say that I'm a better sailor than someone else - but I did learn the hard way during my dinghy sailing days. Reduce sail before you really need to, if you fail in that and are caught unawares, let go the sheets.

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Old 18-08-2010, 08:48   #180
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But......there's always a but isn't there.
snip.....

Honestly, I expect my wife and I would have been sailing the boat the exact same way and would have "not" enjoyed the "come to Jesus" moment that ensued.
I suspect that as the wind started increasing you may have been thinking of the potential risk and easing sheets.

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