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Old 27-02-2018, 12:35   #76
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
back in the old days they measured sea ice extent by reports from shipping and fishing fleets. Also there are some buoys that give data as well .
The danish have records for the eastern arctic going back several centuries.

if you wish to brave the arctic ice I would recommend doing it this year .
Looking at the historical records it would appear that we are looking to see record of near record sea ice volumes within the next few years. ( time will tell lets see where we are come September.)
I got this message from the folks who maintain the database on NWP transits.

Quote:
Your observation is correct; the record of Northwest Passages maintained in SPRI uses an Atlantic to Pacific ocean definition, or vice-versa, to be historically comparable. About ten circum-Arctic Ocean voyages have been made by small craft but only those which passed through Bering Strait to the Pacific Ocean are included. A similar situation does not prevail on the Greenland side as Kap Farvel is about 60<deg> N.

The currently increasing number of transits is making the record substantially more difficult to maintain and of decreasing interest and importance. Next navigation season it will probably pass 300 so efforts will mainly be made to ensure older records are complete and correct.
BTW - Can you share the basis of your prediction? NSIDC reports record low Arctic sea ice extent.

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Old 27-02-2018, 12:40   #77
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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On a positive note sea ice is within normal range for this time of year
Really?




Polar Science Center » PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reanalysis
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Old 27-02-2018, 12:57   #78
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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I would rather trust the people that have been keeping records the longest piomas only go to 1979 one of the coldest years with rather more sea ice than was normally there for the previous 50 years.
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Old 27-02-2018, 13:24   #79
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Oh, you want that data extended forward?
From NSIDC

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Old 27-02-2018, 13:26   #80
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
or how would he like these ones.
If you would like to notice the first-year which connects directly with my prior
Graph is directly from the ipcc 1990 ant second is ipcc 1995
The definition of ice extent has changed from 10% coverage to 15% coverage.
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Old 27-02-2018, 13:30   #81
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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Wait about two years and you will see. IMO James Hansen was correct in 1974.
When he said according to his models we will be at the beginning of an ice age in 30 to 50 years. Fifty years will be 2024.
Citation please.

If you are thinking about the programming that Hansen apparently did for Rasool in 1971, that was predicated on the assumption that industrial aerosol emissions would continue. Hansen has no role in writing the paper.
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Old 27-02-2018, 13:31   #82
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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I would rather trust the people that have been keeping records the longest piomas only go to 1979 one of the coldest years with rather more sea ice than was normally there for the previous 50 years.
What is the source of your graph?
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Old 27-02-2018, 14:23   #83
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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What is the source of your graph?
which graph I have posted graphs from the ipcc , the dmi, the us department of energy, and NOAA ( before mann made altering of datum) .
Please be more specific.
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Old 27-02-2018, 14:28   #84
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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From NSIDC

this chart is from after mann made data altering .
Kinda funny it doesn't match any other documents from prior to 1990.
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Old 27-02-2018, 14:31   #85
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

Ok I think I figured out what you can't seem to see I posted the link to the dmi back on page 4 or 5. Here it is again just for you.
DMI Modelled ice thickness
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Old 27-02-2018, 14:50   #86
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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Ok I think I figured out what you can't seem to see I posted the link to the dmi back on page 4 or 5. Here it is again just for you.
DMI Modelled ice thickness
Current ice volume is more than -1 SD which means that at least 85% of the records are higher than that. That is not within a normal range.
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Old 27-02-2018, 15:22   #87
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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Current ice volume is more than -1 SD which means that at least 85% of the records are higher than that. That is not within a normal range.
I call em as I see em.
Looks within ranges to me. Lets revisit this in one month to see what's happening with sea ice . Btw this is my opinion based upon all of the data that is available to me at this time.
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Old 27-02-2018, 15:56   #88
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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I call em as I see em.
Looks within ranges to me.
You need glasses and some knowledge of statistics.
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Old 27-02-2018, 16:05   #89
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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You need glasses and some knowledge of statistics.
no need to get personal . ( just got my new glasses last month).
I am well versed in statistical analysis
Well back to my astrophysics conference reports.
See you next week.
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Old 27-02-2018, 17:27   #90
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Re: The NorthEAST Passage Over Siberia Norway to the Pacific

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How did they accurately measure sea ice extent before satellites?

When is the ice going to melt? I want to sail to north pole! I figure by the time I make it, they will already have moorings (for a fee) and anchoring prohibited.
I doubt that they will bother to prohibit anchoring, and setting up a mooring may be a bit of a problem. It's about 4000 metres deep at the North Pole.
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