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MarkJ · 09-03-2009, 04:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

Can we choose? I like the USAF/USN one much better.

Yes, the thought of it coming back up here is positively not nice.

Quote:

Originally Posted by C--man

Mark J,

what was it like when it went past you guys?
just wet and windy? any big winds?

In our totally protected cyclone hole we had 6 hours of 30to 40 kts with gusts to 60+ as recorded by another boat in here. In the 60knot gusts the water was lifted to spray instantly and whipped over the surface. In the 3 hours that was most windy we had these gusts for 3 to 5 seconds every 2 to 3 minutes.
That was Southerly. It didnt clock around to be blocked by the hills in the west.

As the tide went out we were starting to lie ahull to the wind.. the full keelers first.

No one here dragged. 1 Pearling Lugger went back a bit but he said it was just his 100 meter(!) chain streaching out. My bearing on him went from 200 to 190 and I thought he dragged.

Rain was not a big event Hamilton Island recorded 25 mils (1 inch) in the 24 hours, I think.

During the gusts I had the engine engaged and driving slowly forward. I dont know if I needed to be or not, but it was good experience and quite good fun.

The fun factor definitly went up when I knew the cyclone was passing us! After that it was all good, even though we then had the 6 hours of wind etc

I can tell you I didn't like the idea of a Catagory 5 hitting us fair in the face and I had a plan as to where I was going to run the boat ashore if need be.

I learned a lot. I wouldnt trade the experience for anything because I what I learned, or clarified, even though we were missed. I am so glad we had the internet. The news services were total and utter crap and we didnt read them, but the weather services were excellent. It felt much more like we were in control with all the info.
I don't want to be at sea in one... especially not a cat 5.

Mark

Tempest245 · 09-03-2009, 04:47

Mark, Fantastic! Glad you guys are safe. It sounds like you did everything right.

So, you set two anchors...How much rode? 45 degrees apart? With the engine on did you just hold to wind, any movement forward? or did you go in and out of gear?

**Hud3** · 09-03-2009, 04:56

Interesting to see the two different scenarios. Will it track SE, out to sea, or will it stall and then track westward?

Here's a bit from an article in the Brisbane Times...

Quote:

March 9, 2009 - 12:36PM
Tropical cyclone Hamish continues to weaken and track away from the Queensland coastline, but authorities have warned residents not to become complacent.
Bureau of Meteorology deputy regional director Bruce Gunn said the warning centre had forecast a “downward trend in intensity from here on in” with cyclone Hamish expected to weaken to category three by 10pm tonight.
However a remnant of the menacing cyclone could cross the coast at Hervey Bay on Wednesday.
“It’s a better scenario than what we had at the weekend…but we’re not out of the woods yet,” Mr Gunn said.
According to the Bureau's Cyclone Warning Centre, Hamish is continuing to track away from the Queensland coastline as it dissipates 225 kilometres east northeast of Yeppoon and 310 kilometres north of Bundaberg.
Mr Gunn said winds in the upper atmosphere were pushing the cyclone east, while winds in the lower atmosphere were pushing the cell west.
“It’s tearing itself apart.”
The cyclone is expected to weaken further to a category two cell within 48 hours, but the outer reaches of the super storm cell could generate damaging winds and torrential rain over Lady Elliot Island and Heron Island and the Sandy Cape within the next 24 hours.

It looks like the wind shear that was predicted earlier is coming into play. If it's strong enough to actually tear the cyclone apart, the remnant surface Low could end up going west toward the coast, but in a much weakened condition.

MarkJ · 09-03-2009, 05:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tempest245

So, you set two anchors...How much rode? 45 degrees apart? With the engine on did you just hold to wind, any movement forward? or did you go in and out of gear?

Yes, in about 5 metres of water at high tide and 3 meters low tide. In mud. We had 43 meters of all 10 mm chain out and 40 meters rope not used in reserve.
Second anchor was at about 30 degrees(??) maybe a little less. Was about 20 meters of 10mm chain and 20 meters rope with 20 meters rope in reserve.
I set the second anchor when the tide changed and it turned the boat around, I went astern on engine and I was able to launch off the aft quarter from the cockpit in light wind. I dont think the angle was great enough.
I relied on the main anchor leaving the second in reserve as I don’t believe in the second anchor v much because of its type, weight and the shackle. The original was a bit rusted. I had bought a replacement shackle but forgotten to put it on so when I went to drag the anchor out of the lazarette I found the new shackle wouldn’t fit the bloody anchor shank! My fault entirely of course. So I didnt want to put full weight on it unless necessary.

When the wind came around to where it was coming up the inlet we put the enine on and left it on for about 6 hours (on and off) and in the gusts put it into forward in idle, or sometimes 1,200 rpm. I couldn’t tell it it did anything or not! The fin keel makes it jockey around at anchor without a riding sail (dunno how to make one with twin back stays) so engine helped with that.
Another boat said the 'bullets' of wind were 60kts on his hand held meter. The HamiltonIsland observations for the same time said gusts up to 50, so I don't know what we actually received, but it was some strong gusts, but nothing like what one would expect in the open except for katabolic effect. And the gusts were very short so the engine would be in gear for 5 to 10 seconds.

I also used the engine to push into waves if some big ripples came down the inlet as I don't like the bow jumping up on a wave and puling the anchor up.

I couldn’t tell if the boat moved forward on the engine or just took the preasure off the anchor. Its funny but the academic side to it all didnt work out much in that sort of thing.. how could I tell if I was moving forward? I would have liked to know.

I guess it was all about guessing and just being at the wheel and playing around that was good. I dont know if I needed to be there. But we sure learned a whole lot more being on deck than playing cards below

With the tide against wind without the engine I tried to back the rudder against (or with ) the tide to try to stop the boat shearing from side to side. I don't think this worked. Again I don't know if it did or not. I sure didnt want to spin around in a lull and twst the anchors.

It was just kinda a rehearsal. It was good to have, will make the next time better (but we hope for no next time!), will make me change some plans and get another shackle!

Still discussing the second anchor and didnt like all the lines off the bow (twin snubbers, cement block anchor weight line etc) with the thought of twisting or fouling. Discussed with another guy here about using 2 anchors on the one chain ------>------> Will think about that.

On the home front Nicolle was excellent, always there when I needed her, never showed fear or was discouraged, always went onto the foredeck etc
before I needed to ask etc.
She had all our personal gear layed out in the forward cabin incl life lines and life jackets etc.
She had a couple of home made pizzas pre cooked and we had a huge roast lamb for dinner the night before.

The weather was just bad enough to make the preparations all worthwhile without really stressing us or the boat. It was like the perfect training senario!

Nicolle definitly passed the test! I think I did OK and I know the mistakes I made and can improve for next test

Mark

Factor · 09-03-2009, 06:02

Excellent summary - and well worth following the story - no matter what we have experienced in the past, its always great to see what other people do in the emergency situation and how it works. Thank you for sharing it all with us.

As an aside I have never been convinced with the two anchors in line thing, but I would love to see other peoples experiments.

MarkJ · 09-03-2009, 06:08

It might be turning around and heading back!

rtbates · 09-03-2009, 07:12

good luck. I'd be interested in hearing your storm anchoring technique.

44'cruisingcat · 09-03-2009, 13:32

It may be a touch of wishful thinking, but my faith in the USAF/USN prognosis is increasing while my trust in our BOM has never been all that great.

The BOM predictions have been changing radically all along. The actual intensity of the cyclone has consistently been higher than their predictions too. On Friday night (IIRC) they predicted it would decrease from cat 4 to cat 3, where it actually increased to cat 5.

They originally had it heading in a straight line directly to Hervey bay, then they had it hooking west, then a u turn west to north west, now it's a u turn to the east. It's also still at cat 4 when they predicted 3 or 2 by now.

They were at one stage predicting winds in Hervey bay of 47 knots, Fraser island offshore 33 knots, at a time when they were positioning Hamish east of Fraser ????

I don't have a great deal of confidence in them.

By comparison the USAF/USN prognosis has remained pretty constant, and Hamish has been staying reasonably close to it. I hope they continue to get it right.

44'cruisingcat · 09-03-2009, 13:43

Sadly, it seems possible Hamish has taken lives.

Sky News: Three missing in cyclone

cagney · 09-03-2009, 13:53

Quote:

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO ADVERSELY EFFECT THE SYSTEM AND
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AS
THE STORM WEAKENS IT WILL SLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
TRANSFERS FROM THE DEEP LAYER RIGDING TO THE EAST, TO THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OF THE AVAILABLE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, TCLAPS DEPICTS THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR VERY
RAPIDLY AND WBAR DOES NOT AT ALL. THE OTHER MEMBERS ERRONEOUSLY
DRIVE THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD INTO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.

This quote from latest Us Navy forecast, dismisses the BOM track forecast. It is interesting to note that all US tracking of tropical systems , that I have seen, openly declare, and discusses the thinking behind the forecast. Is there, somewhere, a similar discussion from Aus BOM?

MarkJ · 09-03-2009, 14:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by cagney

Is there, somewhere, a similar discussion from Aus BOM?

Can you interpret the US quote? I can't understand it.

The only thing I can find for BOM is the technical detail which seems good.
On the Current Tropical Cyclones
look for
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin

I hope the american tracking is right too! It is so totally different from the BOM plot!

MarkJ · 09-03-2009, 14:15

Quote:

The Queensland Bureau of Meteorology director, Jim Davidson, said there was only a 5 per cent chance Hamish would now cross the coast. "As time goes on, we're increasingly confident that it will maintain a south-east track and not directly threaten the Queensland coast," Mr Davidson said.

Well, why doesn't the iddiot change the tracking map???

C--man · 09-03-2009, 15:15

Thanks Mark J for the reply.

where did you find the best updates as for weather?

I see today (tuesday) on the Radar but no current updates.

512 km composite Gympie (Mt Kanigan) Radar Loop

looks like it has just about cleared Fraiser Island, so no
more protection for us if it turns inland.