Piracy - Reality vs Perception

[capn_billl]

Just to get a little perspective.

Odds of being struck by lightening on land : 1 / 280,000
Odds of being struck by lightening at sea : 1 / 1000

Odds of being attacked by pirates worldwide : 1 / 1,200,000
Odds of being attacked by pirates gulf of Aden : 1/50
Odds of dying when playing russian roulet : 1 /6


I have been struck by lightening at sea, spend anough time on the water everyone will. Average 1 storm per week, 50 storms per year, 50 / 1000 = 20. So in 20 years of boating, it's not will you be struck, it's when you will be struck. Same as russian roulet play it once or twice, bad enough play it 6 times the odds approach 99% death.
So seeing as it can take several days to weeks to cross danger zone that now extends across indian ocean, The odds are more when not iff you will be approached by a pirate ship. The last yacht that was captured had an armed escourt ship, (what I would think is a reasonable defense).

The priates are as bold and as well armed, and active as they have ever been in history. I expect this issue to come to a head soon. You probably will not want to be there when it does, as there will be collateral damage. I can't see this as being the new status quo, ...Somethings got to give. The entire world will only stand by so long before demanding action, political futures will hang as this issue gains visibility and traction. When it breaks loose it will be ugly, but when it is over the oceans will be safe to sail once more, (at least as safe as they ever were).