Piracy - Reality vs Perception

[goboatingnow]

f every nation that has commercial vessels transiting this area were to provide a warship to patrol these waters there would probably be enough coverage to deter all but the most determined pirates.

actually the vast majority of maritime nations DO have warships there, some have several, But the sea area is simply HUGE. policing it is not as simple as it seems

DAve

[perchance]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

actually the vast majority of maritime nations DO have warships there, some have several, But the sea area is simply HUGE. policing it is not as simple as it seems

DAve

I suppose we could try and beat them at their own game by using the warship as a base or "mothership" and send out small fast patrol boats to detect and track them.

[goboatingnow]

I suppose we could try and beat them at their own game by using the warship as a base or "mothership" and send out small fast patrol boats to detect and track them.

well most of the Navies are doing just that, but the area is so big that detecting boats is one thing, then actuallyu having assets reach them in time is another. Then lots of them just turn out to be fishermen etc. its not easy for modern navies, the sheer density of naval assets needed just aint built into naval thinking anymore. Using modern missile carriers to track pirates just aint useful. WHat we need are shedloads of frigates and destroyers. But they dont exist anymore.

Dave

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by perchance

I suppose we could try and beat them at their own game by using the warship as a base or "mothership" and send out small fast patrol boats to detect and track them.

Now we're getting somewhere... some nice big ribs would do the job nicely with helicoptor backups for fuel/ammo etc... running low radio in for a fuel drop...

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I would guess that in 'normal' years about 100 boats go up the Gulf and 50 come down.

This year there would have been far fewer, say 50, going up.

Of those 50 yachts most have 2 crew on board some obvious exceptions.
this year on 2 boats 4 have been killed and 7 captured.

so statsitcally thats 1:25 imho.

And as more cruisers avoid the place, the statistical risk for those transiting gets higher.

Like many others, the meditteranean is somewhere we'd like to go to. But the Gulf of Aden is now a place to avoid.

[perchance]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

well most of the Navies are doing just that, but the area is so big that detecting boats is one thing, then actuallyu having assets reach them in time is another. Then lots of them just turn out to be fishermen etc. its not easy for modern navies, the sheer density of naval assets needed just aint built into naval thinking anymore. Using modern missile carriers to track pirates just aint useful. WHat we need are shedloads of frigates and destroyers. But they dont exist anymore.

Dave

What about all those drug runner boats the DEA impounded? Now one of those would scare the hell out of a pirate.

[Pblais]

It's about right and wrong.

Not really. It's never about right and wrong. It might be about a chance for justice. A chance for justice is all there ever is or will be in our times.

Piracy historically is about "over whelming force". It was extended over time time to include the idea of if you were to pirate a ship other pirates would hang on and share in the percentage where the "senior partner" gets the boat.

In that respect there is no piracy left any place. It is now organized crime with armed robbery. This is a topic we all have a better understanding of ashore. Terrorism is for those with political goals. Stealing is a science even if a dark one. If you are to be attacked you should expect more than 10 people armed with automatic weapons. Most can't shoot well but a few are better than you. At that level "over whelming force" from the olden days comes into play.

[bbl]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

Just to get a little perspective.

Odds of being struck by lightening on land : 1 / 280,000
Odds of being struck by lightening at sea : 1 / 1000

Odds of being attacked by pirates worldwide : 1 / 1,200,000
Odds of being attacked by pirates gulf of Aden : 1/50
Odds of dying when playing russian roulet : 1 /6


I have been struck by lightening at sea, spend anough time on the water everyone will. Average 1 storm per week, 50 storms per year, 50 / 1000 = 20. So in 20 years of boating, it's not will you be struck, it's when you will be struck. Same as russian roulet play it once or twice, bad enough play it 6 times the odds approach 99% death.

Very effective laying out of odds there.

When I heard Cornell speak of cruising and a little bit about piracy a couple of months back, I think it was 4/200 cruisers attacked in the Aden in 2010, i.e. 1/50 (numbers were until november). 1 in 50 is an extremely high risk, and it seems difficult to reduce it significantly.

Going together with lots of other cruisers may seem safe since such a convoy has not been attacked, but we don't know if it's just not been attacked yet. It's certainly going to be around the Cape of Good Hope if I'm the skipper and have loved ones on board.


By the way, I'm not disagreeing with the meaning of your numbers, just being a nitpick: Playing russian roulette 6 times gives
1-(5/6)^6=66.5% chance of death. Play it 25 times and it's 99%. Same same with the lightning example.

[jglauds]

Hi:

Some references from a cruiser who now plans to go around South Africa to complete the circumnavigation:

At Noonsite, there's a notice of new piracy tracking/update service that seems rather authoritative: Piracy | Follow The Boat

I don't recall the original source, but the charts come from S/V BeBe, adn we excerpted data and stats re: decisions made by boats intending to cross the Indian Ocean in this posting from our blog: Sailing Vessel ile de Grace: A Word About The Pirate Situation ...

There are lots of posts on piracy, with data and experiences in the Indian Ocean and Red Sea section of this forum: Cruisers & Sailing Forums - Search Results

If this last link doesn't work, do a Search on the Indian Ocean and Red Sea portion of this forum.

Best,

/jon

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by Jon Hacking

Most pirates that are picked up are disarmed, fed & returned to their boats (which are repaired, if needed). Politicians don't have the balls to tell our navies to do the job they are trained to do, as it might not be ... politically correct.

Where'd you get this info?

Meanwhile, people are suffering. Hundreds of them. Somalia may not have a functioning government, but we are at war with the pirates, & it's time we treated the situation that way.

The hundreds you are referring to would be hostage seafarers or starving Somalies or both?

The reason I don't like to treat this statistically is that even one innocent death is too many, especially if it can be prevented.

If you are really this concerned about social issues what have you done in your own community to help victims of rape or drug violence? Or is it just this one injustice that touches you and raises your ire?

You seem to find people who have a dispassionate reaction to a tragedy cold. Is that correct?

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

Just to get a little perspective.

Odds of being struck by lightening on land : 1 / 280,000
Odds of being struck by lightening at sea : 1 / 1000

Odds of being attacked by pirates worldwide : 1 / 1,200,000
Odds of being attacked by pirates gulf of Aden : 1/50
Odds of dying when playing russian roulet : 1 /6
Only if you are playing with a revolver. With an auto the odds are a little worse.

Other than the russian roulette where did you get your statistics?

[Bash]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I was right.

Hey, MarkJ is back!

I'm assuming you've made it from Antiqua to Grenada. How was the passage?

Feel free to answer this in a different thread.

(And apologies to those who want to argue about pirates for the thread piracy.)

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by bbl

When I heard Cornell speak of cruising and a little bit about piracy a couple of months back, I think it was 4/200 cruisers attacked in the Aden in 2010, i.e. 1/50 (numbers were until november). 1 in 50 is an extremely high risk, and it seems difficult to reduce it significantly.

Was that 4 fatalities or hijackings of 4 boats?
Was the 200 people or boats?
Where did Cornell get his numbers?

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I would guess that in 'normal' years about 100 boats go up the Gulf and 50 come down.

This year there would have been far fewer, say 50, going up.

Of those 50 yachts most have 2 crew on board some obvious exceptions.
this year on 2 boats 4 have been killed and 7 captured.

Where'd the boat count come from?

[foggysail]

Originally Posted by genomic

Just to clarify, I don't find piracy punny, not rapes of 13 yr olds. How absurd. The reason why I kept the intro light is because it was introducing a highly contentious subject that often devolves into screaming matches. I was hoping people could keep their heads about them and provide some stats before it came to that.

The reason I posted this was because I, and I'm sure many others, had no idea of the actual figures involved - and this is often because threads become crapfights and not discussions of the issue.

I appreciate everyone who provided estimates of cruiser no's through the Gulf, and pirate attacks on those, this was very informative to me, moreso than a huge debate on how many 50 cal machine guns one can safely bolt to the deck.

If you have a true desire to get accurate piracy percentages, a cruiser's forum is probably not the right place to search out such data. But then again, probability is very low that you will sail your Triton 24 to the Somalia coast into harms way.

Foggy

[genomic]

Originally Posted by foggysail

If you have a true desire to get accurate piracy percentages, a cruiser's forum is probably not the right place to search out such data. But then again, probability is very low that you will sail your Triton 24 to the Somalia coast into harms way.

Foggy

LOL, true. But then the plan is to upgrade and see the world and like many here I've considered my options with regards to this issue. I'd rather be informed before I go though. Sailing around the Cape, as someone mentioned, seems to contain it's own risks which may or may not be greater than taking the vastly quicker route through the Gulf.