Hurricane or TS: Florida W & E coast, East coast USA to NYC

[Tayana42]

Further proof that wives are smarter😀.


S/V B'Shert

[four winds]

In this time lapse a well defined eye has formed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...o-animated.gif

[ErBrown]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I'm aboard, family is in Albany Ga.
I feel that I could impact what happens to the boat, but I wouldn't want them aboard. I don't think this will be that bad, Storm will go ashore a few miles to the East of me, so I'm on the best side to be on.
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Wishing you luck and sending you positive vibes man. I think if I was in your shoes I'd be doing the same thing. I bet you're glad you upsized that Rocna now. Looks like you went even bigger than us (73lbs here).

Stay safe man!

-EB

[EmeraldCoastSailor]

What bayou are you in?

[a64pilot]

Called Pearl Bayou, right by the Airforce base, and near I believe DuPont bridge, but not sure of the bridge name, east end of the bay, 50' clearance


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[EmeraldCoastSailor]

Pearl Bayou is pretty neat; been in there a few times during nice weather and it seems quite snug. It is in strong consideration for me when a big one comes in and I need to leave marina. Easy to kayak to the park for extraction. Glad to hear that it isn't crowded. Stay safe!

[capngeo]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Just been called a hurricane!




I dont wanna be stupid with advice, but i was on a mooring as one went directly overhead a few years ago... And I can tell you their ain't nothing you can do in a hurricane. Its much safer to get the hell off the boat and find a bar.

So if you are in that landfall area please tie it up best you can and get off.


Its not being a coward to run screaming for the hills

I've weathered 4 direct hits (one being Andrew).... Mark nailed it: ANY bar is better than being afloat in a hurricane! I rode out Andrew in the mangroves WAAAAY up Shark River in a 28'boat... it was so rough that the only way to move about the boat was to scoot on your arse along the sole!

[dgz3]

Wellllll.... I think this storm is being way over sold. I'll bet you can't find a parking spot in any Walmart or home Depot from Panama City to Pamlico Sound!
Now don't go betting your life on what I say. To my knowledge, there have been NO fatalities among gullible morons caught out following my advice. But YOU could be the first!

We will see tomorrow if I am right or wrong. But I think this will be little more than some windy rainy weather for a few hours for most people. I wouldn't want to be out sailing around in it. Or anchored somewhere exposed to wave action. But those who have taken reasonable precaution should be fine.
The "sustained" winds are wind speeds recorded over a ONE minute period. And 33 feet AGL, if memory serves. Most of the winds are going to be closer to 20 or 30 with occasional gusts to 50 or so. And since high tide has come and gone for most of that region, I don't think the surge will be anything near the 6 to 8 feet they are predicting. I just saw that some beaches are under water. OMG! THE PICNIC TABLES ARE DROWNING!!!!!

The storm tide presents the biggest threat to boats in marinas. As the water level rises, dock lines tighten up. I have seen cleats pulled out, lines chafed through by pressure over gunnels and sharp edged fairleads, and even pilings pulled out of soft bottoms by heavy lines on big boats. Once the boat gets loose, or a neighboring boat secured by rotten shoe strings breaks loose, the banging and crashing starts.

In 2004 I moved my boat from a mooring ball into a slip up an adjacent creek for hurricane Jeanne when it hit Stuart, Fl. I did that because it was a cat 3 storm with 125 mph winds. And because 53 boats had been carried off those same moorings and wrecked three weeks earlier by Hurricane Frances.
A 40 foot trimaran moored upwind of me then came adrift and hung up on my lifelines and beat up my gunnels and rub rails before getting loose to drift off and sink. My Dufour Arpege killed it! HAHA!!! But I was convinced i wouldn't be so lucky twice.

So when the surge came up, I moved. Going in I power set my heaviest anchor in the channel and paid out 200 feet of line, just in case I had to kedge my way out. I turned 90 degrees and into the slip and put out eight heavy dock lines, four on each side. All to different pilings. With chafing protection.
And then I spent the night on board so I could adjust them as needed. When the eye went over me... I decided to turn the boat around because the back side winds might drive water through my wash boards and hit harder on the flat vertical surface presented by the back of the cabin. I barely got that done in time, too.

I went out frequently to check my lines during lulls and was caught on deck in wind gusts I estimate were 100+ mph. I had to lie flat on the foredeck and hold on to the forward stanchions or be blown overboard. I learned you are better off in shorts and T shirt than foul weather gear. Too much windage. And you're getting wet anyway.
I was also heeled 25 degrees (on my inclinometer) by wind gusts on the bare mast alone. I had removed the boom and sails to minimize windage for Frances. I believe my dock lines prevented more.
I don't tell too many people about that. I get three reactions:
1) "You're an idiot."
2) "You're just stoned crazy. Or both."
3) "You're a liar."

And depending on the season, day of the week, time of day, latest political news, whatever; all four may be accurate in any combination. I don't recommend it. It seemed like a dumb idea at the time. Don't know as i'd do it again. But it worked out well. And I probably did save my boat. But it was intense at times, to say the least.

A64Pilot did good getting out of his marina. So much damage is caused by people who do absolutely NOTHING to prepare! But I think The cape east of him (Cape San Blas?)will shield him from most of it. People in the northeast quadrant will get the worst of it. People everywhere else; much less. probably nothing will happen in his marina. But by the time you know that, it's too late, so better safe than sorry. Maybe he'll let us know tomorrow how he faired and what happened in his marina.

Steady Hand's comment about rainwater sinking boats is well taken and often overlooked. You don't want to leave any canvas covers on, as the wind will shred them. But a couple plastic cups or other trash in your cockpit drains could do it. Remember, if the shore power electricity goes out, you're bilge pumps are on battery power. Once they kill the batteries..... down she goes!

Good luck all!

[DDabs]

a64, hope alls well.

[keepondancin]

"according to The Weather Channel, we're all going to die." Good news doesn't sell. Cat one storms means they close the beach bars. Common sense should prevail, be prepared, be safe, but the end isn't near.

[knockabout]

2/9/2016----11:21 am

[jimbunyard]

GOES East - North Atlantic Water Vapor Imagery Loop (Flash) - Satellite Products and Services Division/Office of Satellite and Product Operations

Looks like Hermine came ashore as a minimal hurricane, with eye passing onshore over a relatively sparsely populated area. Hope everyone made out OK.

More threatening (except for flash flooding I guess) at this point, and maybe something for people on the Mid-Atlantic coast to keep an eye on, is a high pressure area centered over James Bay that is working it's way down to the southeast at what appears to be about the same rate as Hermine is heading up. Seems to me there may be some potential for a situation similar to what happened in 2012 brewing. Just in case...forewarned is forearmed...

[MarkJ]

Florida was lucky it didnt spin up to full hurricane.

Bizzare its going to stop for 4 days off Virginia, New Jersey.

Wave height below in METERS!

[zeehag]

yup just because it is silent doesnt mean it aint gonna regrow a la katrina and clobber ny and nj. be ready. be safe and .......

[SoundWave]

We're in Oriental NC, the predicted storm track takes it directly over our mast.
Going to look right up Hermine's skirt.

Doubled docklines, canvas down, expecting 40-50kt winds and 2-3 feet of surge max.
Sorry, Weather Channel, it will be concerning but probably not cataclysmic.