Frankenstorm!

[virginia boy]

Looks like it's going to be 40 mph at Herrington Harbor. I guess we can expect gust up around 60?

I saw a whole lot of canvas still up in the boatyard today. I hope those people are able to make it to their boats in time. I wish everyone well.

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

Nope, at least Beta if not whatever C stands for. 1938 mega storm damn near blew Long Island off the map. Then there was the "Perfect Storm" from the book & movie, forget what year.

Or, maybe only Halloween counts!

The "perfect storm" was fall of 1991.

[Blue Crab]

Maybe it's just me but I hate the term, "hunkered down."

We're all watching the weather. As an old salt to the young studs out there, I choose my weatherpersons by their attractiveness. The info is all the same. YMMV

It's 9ish here in Beaufort. Couple of bigass gusts but no worries yet.

Last year Irene went right over us. Me and Stephanie Abrams.

[Cruiser2B]

Originally Posted by RDW

I have limited experience but I would think a North or Northeast wind would blow water out of the bay not into the bay. Teach me something.
RDW

N-NE wind does not let water out of the bay. As tides come in the water builds. When the tide goes out the water is trapped in the bay, Elizabeth river and lynnehaven water shed by the NE wind instead of flowing out. Look at a chart and you see what I mean. this last tide was 2 ft above normal, this cycle will continue through Monday...

A SW-W breeze wind would help move water from the southern bay but cause higher than normal tides in the upper ches.

[mbianka]

So I'm looking at the Hurricane Center and it says the 50 Knot wind probabilities are only 20 to 30% for Long Island next 120 hours. Meanwhile local NOAA has a Hurricane Force wind warning posted for Monday into Tuesday. Starting to gust tonight though but, the fun really starts tomorrow night.

[s/v Beth]

How many of you are staying on your boat? Not what I would recommend- you can always get a new boat...

[VirtualVagabond]

Originally Posted by s/v Beth

How many of you are staying on your boat? Not what I would recommend- you can always get a new boat...

We're staying on the boat.
We managed to miss Ernesto by getting out of the Cayman Islands, and the next one, forget the name, by getting out of Key West, but it looks like we're going to cop this one big time.

We're at the top end of the Chesapeake, on the Sassafras River.
Our location is quite well protected by land masses on 3 sides.
We only have 3 feet of water under the keel, so unlikely to sink very far. From what we hear we shouldn't have any problems with waves or surges.

So, my main reason for staying is to pay lines out or take them in when abnormally high or low tides become an issue, and to keep an eye out for chaffing.

I've got double lines on 4 pylons, removed all loose stuff from the deck, lashed everything down, rope laced the outside of the stackpacks, topped up water tanks, bought 3 weeks diesel for the genny, have enough propane for 2 months, bought in groceries, and Sandy loaded up on comfort food.... yeah, can you believe it? This week I'll have TWO Sandies on board to contend with!

I guess we're as ready as we can be.

Vic

[Astrid]

Good luck Vic, hope all goes well.

[s/v Beth]

Vic be careful. You're much more important than the boat.

[chef2sail]

I am staying. Rock Creek on the Patapsco. In a large 72X16 ft slip with poles 12 ft over mean high water. Looks like surge only 3 ft plus high astronomical, then blowout when the wind turns NW later in the event. We are in a hurricane hole protected on all four sides . I am staying to play lines in and out till Wed as winds expected to clock 270 degrees.120 gallons of water and lots of food. Took down canvas, lashed sails, took of dinghy. Tonight predicted stead 25' tomorrow steady 35 to 45. Monday 55 then backing down. No worries for surge, looks like.

Dave

[Sandero]

I did a rough calculation for the wind pressure when by boat is bow to wind (on an anchor or mooring using a beam of 12' and a deck ht of 5' and a mast of 5'. I don't know how to account for the fairing and aerodynamic shape.. so the following chart is for a flat area...

28 mph wind = 2,229 # of pressure bow to wind
30 mph wind = 2,559 # of pressure bow to wind
35 mph wind = 3,484 # of pressure bow to wind
40 mph wind = 4,550 # of pressure bow to wind
45 mph wind = 5,759 # of pressure bow to wind
50 mph wind = 7,109 # of pressure bow to wind
55 mph wind = 8,602 # of pressure bow to wind

Obviously the boat will shear about and when beam to wind the number triple for my 36' boat. I had another number for the "windage" for 60mph which was considerable lower... less than half.

I think one could use 50% of the numbers in the above chart for the forces on the ground tackle, or working mooring / anchor line.

LINE
safe working load #, yield strength #

1" nylon braid on braid 6,200

CHAIN

1/2 galvanized chain 4,500
3/4 galvanized chain 9,750
1 galvanized chain

HARDWARE

1/2 SS Bow shackle 3,000
5/8 SS Bow shackle 4,000
3/4 SS Bow shackle 6,000

Wichard 2317 Mooring Hook 3400 11,250
Wichard 2327 Mooring Hook 3600 11,250

Bow Eye

Sea-Dog mod # 80085
28,000 Sea-Dog mod # 80095 42,000#

In my tackle the weakest link is the Wichard hook at 11,800# break strength.

The bow shackle breaking strength is 24,000#.

The ultimate yield strength (breaking strength) of the line is well within the expected loads.

The break strength is about 3 times the safe working load.

YIKES.

excel spreadsheet doesn't paste well.

[sailorboy1]

are you sure your cleats wouldn't pull out first?

[landonshaw]

Hey zeehag, or anyone else that would be in the know. Just got on Storm 2k, is there a good link to graphic forecasts of the different forecasting models on this site? If so I would appreciate the help. Hadn't seen this site before, thanks.

[landonshaw]

I just found all of the modeling that I wanted. Great. Thanks for the name on the web site.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by VirtualVagabond

We're staying on the boat.
We managed to miss Ernesto by getting out of the Cayman Islands, and the next one, forget the name, by getting out of Key West, but it looks like we're going to cop this one big time.

We're at the top end of the Chesapeake, on the Sassafras River.
Our location is quite well protected by land masses on 3 sides.
We only have 3 feet of water under the keel, so unlikely to sink very far. From what we hear we shouldn't have any problems with waves or surges.

So, my main reason for staying is to pay lines out or take them in when abnormally high or low tides become an issue, and to keep an eye out for chaffing.

I've got double lines on 4 pylons, removed all loose stuff from the deck, lashed everything down, rope laced the outside of the stackpacks, topped up water tanks, bought 3 weeks diesel for the genny, have enough propane for 2 months, bought in groceries, and Sandy loaded up on comfort food.... yeah, can you believe it? This week I'll have TWO Sandies on board to contend with!

I guess we're as ready as we can be.

Vic

we get 60 knot winds quite frequently here during the winter,with about a mile of fetch if it is from the east!,i check my lines but not much else

i have also sat out 50-60 knot blows in a lagoon on anchor,not nice,but survivable with good ground tackel.

chafe and tidal rise is what you need to watch out for,if you can get as many car tyres in sacks to use as fenders in an emergency.

also make sure you have dock lines that are TIED on low down to the plylons,as with extreme tidal rise ones that are looped round can come off over the top.

a long pole for pushing away debris is also useful.
and some spare lines and rags,bit of string to make chafe guards!
a mask and snorkel is good for seeing in horizontal rain.

you might want to think about some form of heating for the big freeze after wards that is anticipated!

good luck with sandy..........and sandy!