Your government at work...

[Exile]

For most sailors and certainly for those in vulnerable areas such as the US gulf coast, I agree we should be thankful for the forecasters at NOAA and not be ridiculing them. And thanks is also due to JimB for posting this.

[WindwardPrinces]

I live on the Gulf Coast of FL, and I'm pretty happy that NOAA is on top of these weather patterns. A few days notice makes all the difference, and I'm OK being aware, even if it's only a 30% chance that a pattern is going to develop.

[redsky49]

Latest NOAA forecast is 80% chance of tropical storm development. GFS (the American weather program) predicts winds to 30, and substantial rain. European model is now predicting Cat. 1 hurricane. Best to start preparations, just in case.
By the way, the Euro program has had better success at storm development predictions than US.

[belizesailor]

NOAA f'casting 90% probability today. A good use of tax $'s I think...esp if you are on the N GOM coast!

[jimbunyard]

As of about 6:00 this morning, there is a closed 10-20 knot circulation centered about 70 miles due south of the Mississippi/Alabama state line, as confirmed by NDBC buoys.

We'll have a better idea what's might happen by the end of the day...though there doesn't seem to be much guidance from any of the pressure maps, which, perhaps, may not bode well.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

As of about 6:00 this morning, there is a closed 10-20 knot circulation centered about 70 miles due south of the Mississippi/Alabama state line, as confirmed by NDBC buoys.



We'll have a better idea what's might happen by the end of the day...though there doesn't seem to be much guidance from any of the pressure maps, which, perhaps, may not bode well.

Be interesting to run a few diff model ensembles against this and see if there is a concensus.

[AiniA]

Here is an interesting article about the impact this storm may have for New Orleans this weekend. The river is already very high because of the very wet weather in the Mississippi basin this spring so the storm surge may rise to within one foot of the top of the levees. Of course forecasts can be on the low side so there could be a serious threat of flooding.

https://slate.com/business/2019/07/n...s-weekend.html

[belizesailor]

https://youtu.be/emzih-d4Cs8

[belizesailor]

Wow, now this is f'cast to become a hurricane! One strange storm!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

[redsky49]

To show how quickly things can go downhill, New Orleans already flooding, tornadoes reported, winds already affecting much of Gulf Coast.

[redsky49]

Storm expected to worsen, path appears to be WNW(?)

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

https://youtu.be/emzih-d4Cs8

Same music that was played on the Titanic?

When it rains really hard, like it did earlier today, the storm water lift pumps in New Orleans can't keep up and localized flooding occurs. Today 118 of the 120 pumps are in working order which is a much improved operational status compared to recent past years status.

New Orleans seems like a good place for a house boat. "The average elevation of New Orleans is between 1 foot (0.3 m) and 2 feet (0.6 m) below sea level. Some parts of the city can reach higher elevations of up to 20 feet (6 m), but over half of the city is at or below sea level. This is the main reason why New Orleans is so susceptible to floods and natural disasters."

Of key issue is that the Mississippi river is running extremely high do to the rain runoff and flooding in the midwest and with a potential for a 3 foot storm related surge and a high tide the water level will get very close to topping the 20 to 22 foot tall levees, especially just south of the city.

As sea levels continue to rise and the ground continuing to subside southern Louisiana keeps losing coastline ground.

"The landscape of Southeast Louisiana was built upon a coastal delta created by the Mississippi River during the past 8,000 years as sea level rise due to glacial melting in the last ice age slowed. Before humans intervened, natural subsidence was offset by a combination of sediments deposited during Mississippi River floods and organic soil produced from the decay of wetland vegetation. Construction of flood control levees to protect the Gulf Coast economy and local populations interrupted the sediment supply, leading to a net increase in land subsidence."

A bit of a touch and go during the next few days. Let''s hope for not a repeat of Katrina.

[a64pilot]

New Orleans is an example of somewhere that ought to have already been abandoned, but wasn’t and likely won’t be either.
But it’s a matter of time, this storm may not even amount to much, but it’s enough to be a real threat, a real storm in these conditions would I guess wipe it out.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Same music that was played on the Titanic?



When it rains really hard, like it did earlier today, the storm water lift pumps in New Orleans can't keep up and localized flooding occurs. Today 118 of the 120 pumps are in working order which is a much improved operational status compared to recent past years status.



New Orleans seems like a good place for a house boat. "The average elevation of New Orleans is between 1 foot (0.3 m) and 2 feet (0.6 m) below sea level. Some parts of the city can reach higher elevations of up to 20 feet (6 m), but over half of the city is at or below sea level. This is the main reason why New Orleans is so susceptible to floods and natural disasters."



Of key issue is that the Mississippi river is running extremely high do to the rain runoff and flooding in the midwest and with a potential for a 3 foot storm related surge and a high tide the water level will get very close to topping the 20 to 22 foot tall levees, especially just south of the city.



As sea levels continue to rise and the ground continuing to subside southern Louisiana keeps losing coastline ground.



"The landscape of Southeast Louisiana was built upon a coastal delta created by the Mississippi River during the past 8,000 years as sea level rise due to glacial melting in the last ice age slowed. Before humans intervened, natural subsidence was offset by a combination of sediments deposited during Mississippi River floods and organic soil produced from the decay of wetland vegetation. Construction of flood control levees to protect the Gulf Coast economy and local populations interrupted the sediment supply, leading to a net increase in land subsidence."



A bit of a touch and go during the next few days. Let''s hope for not a repeat of Katrina.

What kind of instrument is that? I’ve never seen one before.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

New Orleans is an example of somewhere that ought to have already been abandoned, but wasn’t and likely won’t be either.
But it’s a matter of time, this storm may not even amount to much, but it’s enough to be a real threat, a real storm in these conditions would I guess wipe it out.

NOLA has survived an amazingly long time for such a vunerable location.