Hurricane Florence

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Sept 9, midday, Florence very active and gaining more energy, tracking due towards the continent. Roughly towards the Carolinas. Brace.

Every update from the NHC has Florence’s track inching further northward. I’m still not confident about the reliability of the ridge that will supposedly keep her coming ashore in NC. Most of the hurricanes that hit the Chesapeake are forecast to hit the Carolinas and then make the turn, barreling right up the throat of the Bay. Or going right up to Long Island.

And don’t forget that 30-40% of hurricanes end up tracking outside of the five day track. That’s a huge percentage and I think the cone visualization gives those outside of it a false sense of security.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m9iXlOHtzV4

[a64pilot]

Just about every Hurricane forecasted to hit Ga, ends up in NC. I think NC is to hurricanes like a trailer park is to tornados

[steamgoat]

At present in the Champlain canal,planning to restep mast on wed,I will hide in theHudson for a while! Then southbound for nine months.

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Just about every Hurricane forecasted to hit Ga, ends up in NC. I think NC is to hurricanes like a trailer park is to tornados

The yard in Oriental where I did my refit this past year started taking reservations for haulouts a week ago. Reservations were $200, and that was just to hold a place, was not a deposit or applied to the haulout fee. They sold out in like four days.

Almost every building in Oriental has a metal roof and no gutters. Why put gutters on when you’ll just have to replace them every November? Lol

[Saleen411]

Still a bit early, but Myrtle Beach seems to be a popular possibility for landfall.

Wherever this storm winds up it looks like it could be a doozy.....heavy rain maker at a minimum.

What's a bit surprising is the current sea temperature where Florence is located....WARM!...85F, which is 5F warmer than what's needed to feed a hurricane.

[Willie11b]

Originally Posted by steamgoat

At present in the Champlain canal,planning to restep mast on wed,I will hide in theHudson for a while! Then southbound for nine months.

Was supposed to be there myself but boat needed a few things and is at Gaines marina (Rouses Point). I'll be leaving in a couple of weeks so hopefully the follow on storms GO AWAY!!!! How is the canal transit? Also, where are you going to get your mast stepped?

[Argyle38]

Detailed analysis from Chris Parker's group put on on the MWC facebook page last night (Saturday 8th).


http://www.facebook.com/plugins/vide...8271416388%2F&




Audio isn't great but it's interesting to see all of the models and what is going in to their conclusions.



GFS (US) model has it going ashore around Beaufort, then going north along the coast, right up the Chesapeake.


European model has it going ashore around Cape Fear and going inland.



Hoping the Europeans are right on this one and Florence is nothing more than a rainy day in the Tennessee valley by next Saturday.

[Clamdigger]

Originally Posted by Suijin

Gene thanks again for the offer, most appreciated!

I’m single handing, as usual. I’ve been through there a bunch of times and have in fact stopped at AH a few times to pick up and drop off guests.

At this point I’m still evaluating options. Proceeding further SW for the sake of saving a few bucks is on the face of it penny wise and pound foolish. That said, AH would be the most logistically convenient for my plans through the end of September.

I’m going to wait for the wind to blow through tomorrow then make my move on Tuesday based on what Florence is doing. Should be pretty clear by then. If it’s to AH should be pretty straightforward at that point although start of the ebb at Hell Gate won’t be until @ noon.

Suijin, if you decide to transit Hell Gate, which you probably know as well as I do, start early because there will be heavier traffic and more water moving through due to the Southerly swell that is developing IMOE. Also, Sheepshead Bay near 'toys r us' has been my go to spot when caught out over there in years past. Sheltered from most wind and surge, and good holding seabed w o alot of entanglement debris for your ground tackle to snag on. It was cleaned out by a corps after sandy. Lots of cargo traffic holds there, but you would be closer in than them.

Now you have my ph #, so I expect to get your call when you arrive in ah, if nothing more than drive down to give you a handshake and welcome you to my town. Plus I know where all the good places to eat are and local events!

For those not familiar with NJ s coastline it s like California s very few inlets, places to get off the Atlantic Ocean, and the majority of those inlets are treacherous at best. Even Atlantic City looks benign, but I ve watch inbound 50ft yachts roll their guts out on an Easterly swell from my 20th story hotel room too many times to consider it an easy inlet!

[Clamdigger]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Just about every Hurricane forecasted to hit Ga, ends up in NC. I think NC is to hurricanes like a trailer park is to tornados

A64, lol! Sounds about right, was stationed on St Simons Island for a year and never got hit while there. Back then going into Brunswick was like going to NYC lol!

Had lots of adventures over to Jekyll Island and the causeways shark tooth hunting back in the day. Unfortunately during one of my many moves my record collection and sharks tooth colletion ' fell off the truck'. Note to self, never label a box with the actual contents, as the movers will cherry pick the best as their MUCH undeserved ' tip', and good luck getting it back.

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by Clamdigger

Suijin, if you decide to transit Hell Gate, which you probably know as well as I do, start early because there will be heavier traffic and more water moving through due to the Southerly swell that is developing IMOE. Also, Sheepshead Bay near 'toys r us' has been my go to spot when caught out over there in years past. Sheltered from most wind and surge, and good holding seabed w o alot of entanglement debris for your ground tackle to snag on. It was cleaned out by a corps after sandy. Lots of cargo traffic holds there, but you would be closer in than them.



Now you have my ph #, so I expect to get your call when you arrive in ah, if nothing more than drive down to give you a handshake and welcome you to my town. Plus I know where all the good places to eat are and local events!



For those not familiar with NJ s coastline it s like California s very few inlets, places to get off the Atlantic Ocean, and the majority of those inlets are treacherous at best. Even Atlantic City looks benign, but I ve watch inbound 50ft yachts roll their guts out on an Easterly swell from my 20th story hotel room too many times to consider it an easy inlet!

Gene I will definite call if I get to AH. and thanks for the advice regarding the gate. I would have thought if anything that a southerly swell would push the slack a bit later but no harm in getting there early.

I detest going down the Jersey coast. If I can I go from Cape May straight to Block (had an amazing sail this last time...peeled off a 185 mile day which is a record for my boat). But with the prevailing sou’westerlies I did not want to wait for a window, and doing it for 30 hours solo through often heavy traffic can be exhausting.

Barnegat is the worst. Used to vacation on LBI at my in laws house there and run my 21’ Parker in and out. It does not take much wind against current to make it a nightmare, and you can’t see the standing waves until you’re almost on top of them. The rest of them are a bit better but I always avoid the whole lot of them if I can.

[Steadman Uhlich]

Recent satellite photo showing Florence and following storms.

[atoll]

some in depth analysis from a pro forcaster

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veS6KNrCsYo

[Clamdigger]

Originally Posted by Suijin

Gene I will definite call if I get to AH. and thanks for the advice regarding the gate. I would have thought if anything that a southerly swell would push the slack a bit later but no harm in getting there early.

I detest going down the Jersey coast. If I can I go from Cape May straight to Block (had an amazing sail this last time...peeled off a 185 mile day which is a record for my boat). But with the prevailing sou’westerlies I did not want to wait for a window, and doing it for 30 hours solo through often heavy traffic can be exhausting.

Barnegat is the worst. Used to vacation on LBI at my in laws house there and run my 21’ Parker in and out. It does not take much wind against current to make it a nightmare, and you can’t see the standing waves until you’re almost on top of them. The rest of them are a bit better but I always avoid the whole lot of them if I can.

Suijin, the problem waiting for full slack at the Gate coming Southbound is that you will then have 'the flotilla' racing you through. It can lead to a panicked newbie causing an issue, and potentially cause you issues to avoid them. I am either first or last but never in the flotilla going through there. Ymmv

Sweet sleigh ride from Cape May to Block! Wished I was aboard for that one! LBI been there done that in the old grady white. The standing waves I could see from up 20 stories in the hotel room near the lighthouse in Atlantic City had to be a good 7-10 ft! But cruisers inbound could not see them and were probably cursing nj at the top of their lungs about then. If anybody gets the chance to visit AC in the Fall or Spring I suggest they book a high room ocean side near the lighthouse to witness this. It will help you as a cruiser entering inlets anywhere. I sat for hours in the morning and evening watching this.

Weather is dreary outside today going for a grocery run, no frozen food, I know better than to fill a non working freezer or fridge right before a storm barrels through! I have extra 75ft dock lines I can break out if you need them too.

[jimbunyard]

Anyone north of South Carolina and south of Massachusetts needs to take this seriously. The best case scenario is if it makes landfall in the southern range and continues well inland, but everywhere north of there is in the dangerous semicircle, at least until it gets far enough in to not matter on the coast.


That leaves out the possibility of what happens if it turns north and parallels the coast, either slightly offshore or on, subjecting the entire stretch to sustained cat 2 or better onshore winds...

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by Clamdigger

Suijin, the problem waiting for full slack at the Gate coming Southbound is that you will then have 'the flotilla' racing you through. It can lead to a panicked newbie causing an issue, and potentially cause you issues to avoid them. I am either first or last but never in the flotilla going through there. Ymmv

Ah ha! I’ve never gone down it during the fall migration. Has always been odd times of the year. Last time was June s few years ago, in the morning and did not see s single other boat until being buzzed by the Brooklyn ferries. I thought I had missed some CG advisory that the river was closed lol.