Hurricane Blanca

[Greg4cocokai]

Cocokai took a break in Santa Maria for 24 hours. NW winds are a tough fight right now. Heading out tomorrow morning and will fight to get NW. As Blanka goes bye the winds will go W and make it an easy trip to Turtle Bay. Please all pray it doesn't go west! Will make it a long and uncomfortable ride, but only a tropical storm. I'm glad we sent Flower north. Another friend on Destiny (another 64' schooner) is here and going to ride it out here. I prefer some sea room and will heave to if need be. I trust me more than my ground tackle!!!


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[zeehag]

when ye can please say hay to dawn n mike on destiny.
speakeasy is anchored in puerto sta magdalena...where blanca is aimed.
yes i hope tropical storm not cane by the time it gets there.
be well..
was good to meet you n your cool schooner.

[JPA Cate]

Zee,

It looks like you're gonna have some pretty strong winds at your location on Monday. Hope all stays well.

Thanks for posting the pix.

I will keep good thoughts for speakeasy. Yes, I think Morgan should be well north by now. Hope cocokai also is all good.

Thanks again.

[zeehag]

yes ann it is blowing strongly here, and we only under a coupla outer rings. we having no rain, which disappoints everyone, as we count on these to bring our annual water ....
i was perusing the path projected and speakeasy is anchored ........
he will have some righteous stories for us.

[zeehag]

lil black dot is speakasy, black x is me. the bitch is closer now to striking baja than me-- we enduring some winds and no rain, which we all were hoping would be arriving, as it is much needed. what do ye call a dry cane.....blow job...egads. we have been having winds all night--started about 6 pm and hoit with a thump, as if was a katabatic or down draft .. grew rapidly on us increasing to about 30 kts by midnite, now is constant with sun and some clouds over head and stillNO rain... gggrrrrrr. we so badly need the water to fall from sky for our water supplies.
is now cat 3 and growing...isnt near cold water yet..
the cat 4 possibility before hitting speakeasy is a scary concern.
i hope he will be ok in htis monsters strike zone from hell.
where the hell is scotty when ye need him to beam someone out of danger zones anymore, anyway.

[Wrong]

If there's shelter available OFF THE BOAT, hopefully Speakeasy will have the presence of mind to take shelter there. Dangerous enough up a mangrove, or anywhere a boat can be secured stern and bow with lines to trees... But, anchored in an open waterway?

No way.

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Wrong

If there's shelter available OFF THE BOAT, hopefully Speakeasy will have the presence of mind to take shelter there. Dangerous enough up a mangrove, or anywhere a boat can be secured stern and bow with lines to trees... But, anchored in an open waterway?

No way.

baja is a DESERT location with few nd far between locations and NO MANGROVES. he is tucked into a place that turns intyo a lee shore in the situation in which he will soon find himself.
i have notified schooner destiny, who shares the anchorage more north with cocokai, so hopefully someone can check upo after this is over, to make sure speakeasy is safe and sound.
mexico , especially baja sur, contain so few actual cane holes, as opposed to mainland mexico.
the only mangroves to hang out in are here in barra de navidad. i have found mangroves rare in mexico's desert areas, such as is baja.

the barrier island jon chose is without facilities.

greg, if you have ability, after this is done, please, is it possible to check on jon in the place in which he is anchored just in case... please. i dont know if he has ssb, bu ti know destiny does. can he be tag teamed by you and destiny, and please please update after this bad girl has passed .
i thankyou in advance.

[Annie in WA]

We're sitting in La Paz in a marina prepped for a hurricane but expecting a Tropical Storm. There's a little swell right now, no wind yet. I've been reading all the posts in this thread.

About Bahia Magdalena, I have no personal experience with it but the book "MexWX: Mexico Weather for Boaters" by Capt. Pat Rains lists it as one of the ports with some protection from hurricanes. On pages 58 through 60 they discuss successfully anchoring in No Name Cove, Mag Bay during Hurricane Nora with protection from winds from the E to WNW. Also, they mention another boat riding out the hurricane in Puerto Alcatraz in the S part of Mag Bay. They caution that safety in these areas depend upon the hurricane's direction and each particular boat.

Perhaps there are some areas to tuck into in Mag Bay if the conditions are right and there is no alternative.

[CAELESTIS]

Below is an email I just received from a friend in San Jose del Cabo Marina.

"We've spent most of today getting ready. There really isn't much else we can do. It's somewhat comforting to see so many boats from Cabo San Lucas moving up here where it might be "safer". The boats on both sides of us have also taken all possible precautions. The sailboat on our port side was in La Paz for Odile. They are quite matter of fact about it all and seeing their calm is helping me a lot. They were more protected from swell in La Paz, however and the last I saw for Blanca was waves to 21'. It's a bit of a dogleg into the marina but other than that and a moderate breakwater, we are somewhat exposed. We are all well tied. Genoa is down and everything loose brought inside. We turned the boat bow in so that we will be facing into any potential swell. It is starting to sprinkle a bit but other than that we are definitely in the calm before the storm period."

As long as they have electricity, they will update me.

[zeehag]

as both cabo and la paz are neither one in the eyeball strike zone , there is little worry or concern there. i have many friends in those areas and in sts rosalia, as well, and other places in soc. i do not do soc, as i consider it a boat trap.
bahia magdalena is a great place to weather a storm.
however, that is not where speakeasy is anchored.
mag bay IS where destiny and cocokai are nestled in and safer.
look on the predicted paths of blanca, who is now expected, per storm 2k, to be still a cat 4 when making landfall.
isla margherita, which is some south of mag bay, is a susceptible area with low lying barrier islands, over which 40+ ft seas can break, and which is exactly under the predicted landfall for the cat 3-4 storm.
la paz last year in odile thought that the storm was gonna be a tropical storm, when it slammed as a cat 3.
the winds hitting last year with odile were 130 kts, not the 70 they were told to expect. donot just listen to the numbers so casually, as destruction will occur, as the folks there were unprepared for the devastation that was brought onto the areas.
i would have hoped over hope the folks of la paz had opened their eyes.
as cabo san lucas is farther south than the eyeball, maybe la paz and cabo might be ok.
however, isla margherita, at puerto san carlos, baja sur, north of cabo san lucas, where the storm is scheduled to center punch with her eyeball, is not a well protected area.
right now the winds of blanca are 130 kts andf GROWING she is anticipated to hit pacific side, NORTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS as a cat 4 and mebbe 5, unless some very drastic weakening occurs, which has not been expected,as meteorologists are still talking cat5.

thereis still barely enough time for jon to make bahia magdalena, but i dont know if he is willing to leave his anchorage, as he feels pretty beat to hell... unfortunately, he will feel more beaten up after this storm hits.

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by Annie in WA

We're sitting in La Paz in a marina prepped for a hurricane but expecting a Tropical Storm. There's a little swell right now, no wind yet. I've been reading all the posts in this thread.

About Bahia Magdalena, I have no personal experience with it but the book "MexWX: Mexico Weather for Boaters" by Capt. Pat Rains lists it as one of the ports with some protection from hurricanes. On pages 58 through 60 they discuss successfully anchoring in No Name Cove, Mag Bay during Hurricane Nora with protection from winds from the E to WNW. Also, they mention another boat riding out the hurricane in Puerto Alcatraz in the S part of Mag Bay. They caution that safety in these areas depend upon the hurricane's direction and each particular boat.

Perhaps there are some areas to tuck into in Mag Bay if the conditions are right and there is no alternative.

Annie,

While you are waiting for Blanca, open up Open CPN and peruse Mag Bay. Given that the strongest winds are most likely to be from the NW and W, see where you think your boat might have the best chance. Later on, compare what you find out occurred with what your thoughts were. Write it all down so that it helps you remember. It is all grist for the *mind* mill.

And in the meantime, we hold the threatened people close and wish them strength to handle the situation well.

Ann

on Edit: the threat "novice question" by christiansailing, has some very interesting discussion now about heaving to, and surprisingly for me, monte, with a catamaran, has been able to heave to very effectively.

[Wrong]

Originally Posted by zeehag

baja is a DESERT location with few nd far between locations and NO MANGROVES. he is tucked into a place that turns intyo a lee shore in the situation in which he will soon find himself.
i have notified schooner destiny, who shares the anchorage more north with cocokai, so hopefully someone can check upo after this is over, to make sure speakeasy is safe and sound.
mexico , especially baja sur, contain so few actual cane holes, as opposed to mainland mexico.
the only mangroves to hang out in are here in barra de navidad. i have found mangroves rare in mexico's desert areas, such as is baja.

the barrier island jon chose is without facilities.

greg, if you have ability, after this is done, please, is it possible to check on jon in the place in which he is anchored just in case... please. i dont know if he has ssb, bu ti know destiny does. can he be tag teamed by you and destiny, and please please update after this bad girl has passed .
i thankyou in advance.

I don't believe 'pushing the button' is only justified when encountering life threatening circumstances while underway. Should Jon at minimum issue a pon pon, and ask if it's possible for a helicopter evacuation to safety?

And, are others in radio communication with him able to relay if necessary to make certain the request gets through?

[contrail]

Originally Posted by zeehag

as both cabo and la paz are neither one in the eyeball strike zone , there is little worry or concern there. i have many friends in those areas and in sts rosalia, as well, and other places in soc. i do not do soc, as i consider it a boat trap.
bahia magdalena is a great place to weather a storm.
however, that is not where speakeasy is anchored.
mag bay IS where destiny and cocokai are nestled in and safer.
look on the predicted paths of blanca, who is now expected, per storm 2k, to be still a cat 4 when making landfall.
isla margherita, which is some south of mag bay, is a susceptible area with low lying barrier islands, over which 40+ ft seas can break, and which is exactly under the predicted landfall for the cat 3-4 storm.
la paz last year in odile thought that the storm was gonna be a tropical storm, when it slammed as a cat 3.
the winds hitting last year with odile were 130 kts, not the 70 they were told to expect. donot just listen to the numbers so casually, as destruction will occur, as the folks there were unprepared for the devastation that was brought onto the areas.
i would have hoped over hope the folks of la paz had opened their eyes.
as cabo san lucas is farther south than the eyeball, maybe la paz and cabo might be ok.
however, isla margherita, at puerto san carlos, baja sur, north of cabo san lucas, where the storm is scheduled to center punch with her eyeball, is not a well protected area.
right now the winds of blanca are 130 kts andf GROWING she is anticipated to hit pacific side, NORTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS as a cat 4 and mebbe 5, unless some very drastic weakening occurs, which has not been expected,as meteorologists are still talking cat5.

thereis still barely enough time for jon to make bahia magdalena, but i dont know if he is willing to leave his anchorage, as he feels pretty beat to hell... unfortunately, he will feel more beaten up after this storm hits.

You are right about Mag Bay, and those who note there are different spots for different weather directions are also correct, although when you get to a certain wind speed, all bets are off no matter the direction. For what it is worth, when winds are south or southwest, Turtle Bay offers more protection than may be thought, when anchored on the southern part, not the regular part near town. Cedros (behind breakewater, not the anchorage) is also OK. Nobody really has time to move anymore if they haven't moved or aren't moving, already.

By the way, Turtle Bay has been hit hard in the past, and quite a few times, although maybe not in the past few years. But this is the time of the year that the water is cold, as several have pointed out, and most hurricanes head west well south of even Mag Bay until later in the summer, so Bianca is an outlier.

Cabo Marina, way back inside, is actually a pretty good place, but there isn't much if any guest berthing there. Went through several hurricanes there, including Juliette, which took three days. Some places in La Paz are good, too, and Marina Costa Baja is pretty tough. Did one hurricane in La Paz. Don't know about the marina in San Jose Del Cabo, wasn't built when I had left.

I spent about fourteen years in and around the Sea of Cortez, and there are actually a number of decent spots, once you really get to know the place. But the windspeeds are never certain, and if you are really near the track, neither is their direction. That's the nature of circular storms. If the eye goes over you, you can get winds from almost all directions, and very strong. Did Hurricane Marty in Puerto Escondido, and we had the eye go over us there. Never forget when the eyewall hit us after the eye. But it can be a very good place, depending upon preparation, and, most importantly, other people's prep.

Folks who have spent a lot of time in the Sea generally have it figured out. That's why you will see them calmly preparing, but EARLY. It's not easy at the end. Everyone develops their own favorites, based on their personal experiences. A number are well north in the Sea which may come into play this time. Best of wishes to all who are in danger, and use the lessons that will be learned, for future prep.

By the way, with regard to "professional" forecasters (and having spent many years helping do Ham weather for Mexico and managing a marina in Mexico) NOAA and the NHC has and pays for lots of 'em. Don't underestimate their forecasts, viewed over the long term, although individual private forecasters may get a particular storm more correctly. And the private forecasters usually bring a particular experience and perspective that is most helpful for similar folks and boats and locations. But they all base them on the official information, models, charts, etc, because it's the Government that has the money to make them, launch satellites, etc. etc. which is pretty obvious when you think about it!

[zeehag]

blanca has made more like an odile to include all of baja, so none is exactly safe at this time.
be ready for fun n games
hoping for weakening of this storm before landfall.

[zeehag]

"By the way, with regard to "professional" forecasters (and having spent many years helping do Ham weather for Mexico and managing a marina in Mexico) NOAA and the NHC has and pays for lots of 'em. Don't underestimate their forecasts, viewed over the long term, although individual private forecasters may get a particular storm more correctly. And the private forecasters usually bring a particular experience and perspective that is most helpful for similar folks and boats and locations. But they all base them on the official information, models, charts, etc, because it's the Government that has the money to make them, launch satellites, etc. etc. which is pretty obvious when you think about it!"

sorry i do no tpay attention to forecasters, but i do converse with scientists who ARE the weather writers. i porefer to attend to the sat fotos not used by noaa and nhc, and i prefer to follow the models used by the international scientists, and fly overs i read about when i read these scientists discussions and view th e pictures and graphics posted by them, as they are and have been mor eaccurate then those generaqted by usa organizations.
soc is all well and good. i have been around the place on land.
i refuse to take my boat up there.
to me it is still a boat trap.
having been into weather since i was 7 yrs old, same year i began sailing, i learned there are many more accurate sources of information found outside the usa than inside usa.
but, i do not listen nor watch the bubble headed baublehead spewing someone elses words on television. forecasters do nothing for me. i find them ignorant of reality and science.