Hurricane Blanca

[Dockhead]

If you can't make miles upwind against 25 knots, you need a different boat. Trim the sails in hard and motorsail at 25 degrees or so -- works on most boats.

[zeehag]

latitude 38 :


Category 4 Blanca Moves North

June 3, 2015 – West Coast of Mexico

After the pounding that the Baja Peninsula took last fall thanks to Hurricane Odile, we can probably all agree that it's somewhere else's turn. Unfortunately, though, a powerful new threat is poised to pounce.


Although stalled roughly 450 miles south of Manzanillo, Hurricane Blanca is currently packing winds of 130 mph — making it a Category 4 — and is expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours.

NOAA computer models show Blanca passing far offshore of Puerto Vallarta Saturday, and making landfall on the outside of the Baja Peninsula Sunday or Monday. But there is no guarantee, of course, that it will follow the projected track shown above.

Although there are no official hurricane watches in effect today, needless to say, boaters in the Southern Baja region should be making preparations. It's worth noting that during Odile, the worst damage was to boats that were anchored out, rather than in marinas. You can follow Blanca's progress at the NOAA Hurricane Center website.

[CSailor]

Great advice all, glad I connected. As for the headway, the boat does fine under sail: only way it actually moves upwind in 25 knots IS under sail. The engine is tiny - 56 hp, the boat's 47 feet, go figure - I didn't design it.

Just to let you all know, I'm going to try thrashing my way to Turtle Bay, if there's cellular Internet access there, I'll check in with the forum when I arrive. As zeehag said, "go like hell or hunker down," and hunkering down in the advance of that storm scares me.

Sorry, I haven't seen or heard from "Rose of Shannon." There are no marinas in Maria Bay, in fact, there's absolutely nothing but a few shacks on a hill to the north. No other boats, at all. I didn't go into Mag bay, so I don't know if they are there. Let's hope they turn up, safe and sound.

Thanks again, everyone!

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Morgan Stone

Great advice all, glad I connected. As for the headway, the boat does fine under sail: only way it actually moves upwind in 25 knots IS under sail. The engine is tiny - 56 hp, the boat's 47 feet, go figure - I didn't design it.

Just to let you all know, I'm going to try thrashing my way to Turtle Bay, if there's cellular Internet access there, I'll check in with the forum when I arrive. As zeehag said, "go like hell or hunker down," and hunkering down in the advance of that storm scares me.

Sorry, I haven't seen or heard from "Rose of Shannon." There are no marinas in Maria Bay, in fact, there's absolutely nothing but a few shacks on a hill to the north. No other boats, at all. I didn't go into Mag bay, so I don't know if they are there. Let's hope they turn up, safe and sound.

Thanks again, everyone!

thankyou.
best thing you can do is just as you leave, recheck google wind or windyty sites for wind direction .. google isnt a predictor, just an actualizer. we see many models of weather so it is good to see what is here and now on occasion.

[JPA Cate]

Morgan,

Go for it. What Zeehag writes about the water temp sounds correct to me, seems like you need water temps around 27 C or 80+ F to sustain a cyclone.

Turtle Bay is wide open to the swell, Cedros might actually be better. Neither is well known for its holding qualities. The tropical storm that's out there will also be affected by the cooling of the water as you claw your way north.

I hope you did some cooking beforehand. The sea state will probably not be conducive to preparing hot meals, unless it's just warm-up food. Keep it simple, and let the boat truck to colder water.

Travel safely.

Ann

[CSailor]

Rounding Punta Hughes, north side of opening to Santa Maria Bay - wind is 19 kt from the NW, seas are choppy, breaking over the bow - it's like riding a mechanical bull! Just to let anyone coming this way know. It's not pretty! C U, all

[Mr Big]

Anyone know if these storms will be pushing anything up to Northern Baja? I'm scheduled to sail from Catalina Island to Ensenada this weekend and wondering If any big swells will be rolling up...


Happy Sailing!

[exMaggieDrum]

Morgan, I feel for you. The stress meter would be pegging right now. I just had friends who helped deliver a boat from San Diego to PV and we all were concerned about them running in to some weather. We tried to talk them out of it but the owner was insistent. They made it no problem last week. Would have been very different this week.

The latest this morning says Blanca will weaken and then strengthen before it gets to Cabo (or west of Cabo now). And, it should weaken steadily as it hits cooler and cooler water as it goes farther north. But even a TS can be a dream wrecker depending on where and how the boat lies when it hits.

Not sure why you decided to go this time of year but any others should seriously rethink it if they have plans to go between now and November. The storms this year could be stinkers. If you go plan for places to hide and have the gear to protect you and the boat as best possible. I may be wrong but I think I have heard that the waters well offshore of the Pacific side of Baja are relatively shallow and thus perhaps very dangerous compared to going offshore in deeper waters.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by exMaggieDrum

Morgan, I feel for you. The stress meter would be pegging right now. I just had friends who helped deliver a boat from San Diego to PV and we all were concerned about them running in to some weather. We tried to talk them out of it but the owner was insistent. They made it no problem last week. Would have been very different this week.

The latest this morning says Blanca will weaken and then strengthen before it gets to Cabo (or west of Cabo now). And, it should weaken steadily as it hits cooler and cooler water as it goes farther north. But even a TS can be a dream wrecker depending on where and how the boat lies when it hits.

Not sure why you decided to go this time of year but any others should seriously rethink it if they have plans to go between now and November. The storms this year could be stinkers. If you go plan for places to hide and have the gear to protect you and the boat as best possible. I may be wrong but I think I have heard that the waters well offshore of the Pacific side of Baja are relatively shallow and thus perhaps very dangerous compared to going offshore in deeper waters.

Remember the Bounty and DON'T go offshore to escape a hurricane.

Get the boat into a hurricane hole in some mangroves or up a river, and get yourself well inland. With decent preparation your boat will be fine, and the boat is secondary anyway. Main thing is get you and yours away from the sea. Going down with the ship is idiotic in this day and age.

[model 10]

Well it sounded like Morgan has chosen to hide in Turtle Bay. Very questionable. It's completly open and there is not a mangrove in 500 miles. I guess he is hoping that the storm peters out before it gets there.

[zeehag]

turtle bay is a safe place from cyclonic activities as the surrounding water is waaay toocold for tropical storms and they do no tnormally travel there. is why i suggested it after having watched so many years these storms form and try to kill me her ein mexico. yes i am in mexico. is how i know more about these things here in pacific than does an east coaster sitting on his beach with a cold drink or in his office watching as nhc predicts some action in oiur basin. they form as they slide by my location then slam cabo and baja. i have seen many of these in my 4 years here.
anyone moving boat in pacific ocean in summer should watch for a good weather window.
i would go to cedros island village and sit on the wharf beforei would hang in turtle bay, however, as direction of swella nd surge is deflected from inside the breakwall. isnt a normal cruiser venue, and therefore still a good place to go. i am not refering to the anchorage outside the breakwall, but inside the breakwall for the village.
the bets are for 26 weeks of storm season to have 26 named storms. so far, we down 2 weeks, as the first two weeks, may 15-30 was kinda fail for such a busy to be season.
i have found the only realistic predictions come via storm 2k. passage weather gives a general idea of upcoming weather, eebmike is a local guy in concepcion bay, geary. he is excellent. www.eebmike.com
often when nhc calls for a weakening, it is not correct. i would not count on blanca weakening significantly before cabo is hit. my storm watching guys have real bets on the development of blanca int0 cat 5 before landfall. they are usually pretty accurate.
these were same words that got the folks in la paz into fatal problems with odile.
instead of weakening, odile strengthened off cabo corrientes, aka near me.
blanca has chilled down our hot ocean from over 30 centigrade to under 28 centigrade. is good for us in subsequent storms, as they should be farther out to sea.
i would NOT count on her weakening before landfall, despite what nhc spews. storm 2k folks are true meteorologists who discuss these awesome formations and post current and model pix for folks to learn and grow in their experience. awesome forum with incredible information. they discuss the diffeering models and also discuss reliability of these asorted models, including those from nhc.
google wind is a good site for current wind patterns. look at the pretty formations on the west coast of mexico.
do not sail in em.
you should have a week between storms.

notmany mangroves inmexico--there are some in this lagoon , but most places inmexico are open ocean anchorages with minimal protection, EXCEPT cedros island village and barra de navidad.

[zeehag]

dear mr big:
i presume you donot follow the tracks of canes on a normal basis.
if you look up a sst chart, you will find the water in north baja to be bludi COLD,and wetsuit needed for swimming. just like california--you wont drown before hypothermia sets in. is COLD. named storms want temps that are WARM, therefore, the one only storm that in history of the world part one hit cali(1938? 1888 or something??)--was enormously RARE, and not gonna happen this year or any other year soon.
conditions are not good for canes in north baja. aint gonna happen
now, if you speak of sea of cortez, that lil boat trap gets very warm to hot in summer and canes do go there.
but not on pacific side.
as far north as ensenadaand catalina--hellno. mebbe a foot more swell by that area, but i wouldnt worry much about that.

[JPA Cate]

Zee,

I'm pretty sure you're lurking there.....Any news of either Morgan or of what Blanca is now predicted to do, two days further on? I am definitely lurking here, wanting them to be safe.

Thanks,

Ann

[zeehag]

dont know exactly what morgan is doing, i think he went north same as cocokai.. but speakeasy is stuck under where her eyeball is gonna hit him.... oops.... had a problem with his boat. i am watching him n blanca like a hawkeyed mother hen..
cocokai left the same area just a coupla days ago for north....
my area is getting a gentle 15-20 kt breeze for now....havent gotten any rain yet...waiting. hoping for rain as we need ithere badly, and usually only have rain when something with a name comes along

blanca is gonna nail the part of baja on pacific side, a bit north of cabo and slightly south of mag bay

[zeehag]

windyty forecast mode
the lil black dot is speakeasy, and the x is where i am