Current Hurricane scenario (Ike related)

[Latitude9.5]

I feel so bad, I am always wishing a hurricane to go one place or another, of course anywhere but over my head, how awful is that?

[imagine2frolic]

That's not bad it's survival. I always say "I wish no one harm, but please don't let it be me!"

[Hud3]

I know...it's a very guilty feeling, kind of like "every man for himself". But what else can you do?

I breathed a sigh of relief when Ike passed by 300 miles north of us. Now I'm thinking and worrying about those in the Keys, and friends we have in south Louisiana who haven't recovered from Hanna yet, even while Ike looms on the horizon.

[Latitude9.5]

Yea I was in a total panic because I have a haul out deal setup, but was afraid I wouldn't be able to get out of this freakin marina with Hanna going by (we have a very narrow exit that is totally open to south winds and you would get slammed against the seawall). So I'm sitting here freakin out as we would have had to haul today at the latest.

Anyhow, it kept shifting south and I kept getting happier and happier, then like you say, it shifted and I'm thinking "great now I wished it to Cuba and Key West" you bastard!

[Tropic Cat]

Originally Posted by Lodesman

I'm sticking with my planKevin

Luckily this is hypothectical. I once motored through Hurricane Katrina in 2005 on the totally protected ICW. It wasn't a lot of fun. I had all of the wind but almost none of the waves. That was definately enough for me. When I think about it now, and imagine adding waves, the conclusion I come to is that at my age, I don't think I'd fair very well in that scenario.

My plan would be to call Hud3 and tell him he has a visitor on the way

[cagney]

Time for an update from the souther route. How are we doing
in this hypothetical armchair challenge?
I have no good explanation at all for being at Long Island in the first place!!

After making our decision we left Clarence Town Friday at 1400Z.
Initially we had about 15 knots of headwind, but mainly light wind.
We have averaged 6 knots. Our position Sunday at 0900Z is
N19 08.9 W79 39.5.
We are expecting to get up to 25 knots of wind from a Southerly direction in about 24h time as Ike passes well to the north of us. This estimate comes from the latest gribfile.
We will probably heave to then, and sit it out. Most likely we will continue to El Porvenir (San Blas) after Ike has passed to get out of dealing with hurricanes for this season, all hypothetically of course..
So all i all we are doing fine, even though Ike is tracking further south than expected.
The weak link in arguing for a southerly route, was the fact that Ike already, from the start of the challenge, had a southerly component in its track. This is unusual, and a warning sign. We we are lucky that Ike is not tracking further south ( for the propose of this challenge and the decision to head south).

See uploaded pictures for a plot of our course. Last diamond is at 0900Z Sunday morning. Quickscat image is from 0800Z. Grib file is from Monday 8:th 0100Z.

[Hud3]

Excellent post, Cagney! The graphics add a lot of realism to the hypothetical discussion. Once having made the decision to run, then the decision to run south was a good one. The GRIB image shows clearly that the south side of Ike is much weaker than the north side.

[DWT]

Originally Posted by Hud3

I know...it's a very guilty feeling, kind of like "every man for himself". But what else can you do?

I breathed a sigh of relief when Ike passed by 300 miles north of us. Now I'm thinking and worrying about those in the Keys, and friends we have in south Louisiana who haven't recovered from Hanna yet, even while Ike looms on the horizon.

Hud,

Thanks for thinking of us in the Keys. 4 days ago, in the same breath, forecasters were saying cat 4 or 5 and the eye of Ike going right over the Middle Keys. Even as a well seasoned boat and home owner here, that was a lot of stress to handle and keep your wits about you. I recommend a lot of deep breathing to stay calm so you can maintain clear thinking.

As of this morning Ike is going to hammer Cuba, good for us...not good for the Cuban people. I have many time thanked Cuba for it's land mass and mountain range, it has saved our ass here in the Keys more times than I care to remember.

With possible 70 to 90 mph winds still predicted we are doing final prep for boats and homes. The tides are my concern. George came up the same way as Ike is predicted and pushed a lot of water up onto Big Pine Key, Bogie Channel to where I am from the southeast. A 6.5 to 7' surge........ doing deep breaths!

Good Luck to everyone
David
69 Morgan 30'
CarolAnn

[Hud3]

David,

Storm surge seems to be a big issue for the Keys, especially after Ike passes. According to Dr. Jeff Masters at wunderground.com the surge driven by the winds from the west will be the worst. Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

All the best. Stay safe! Please let us know how you make out.

Hud

[Lodesman]

Originally Posted by cagney

The weak link in arguing for a southerly route, was the fact that Ike already, from the start of the challenge, had a southerly component in its track. This is unusual, and a warning sign. We we are lucky that Ike is not tracking further south ( for the propose of this challenge and the decision to head south).

Cagney,

You should definitely get the credit for the most complete and well-reasoned answer. I think that even if Ike had pulled a Lenny and gone SW, you still would have been OK going South. Sure it would be a little windier, but you'd be on the safe (least dangerous) side and the seas would be relatively manageable - should make for some fine sailing.

Kevin

[cats..paw]

Yes, good luck David.

We like to winter camp on the ocean side of Bahia Honda. Each year there's a good chance it will be radically altered.

Be safe.

Kit.

[Tropic Cat]

Originally Posted by Lodesman

Hud's pretty picture doesn't show any storms that have altered South into the Caribbean. And 150 years worth of Ike-like storms don't show a single one going South of Cuba. I'm sticking with my plan

Well, what can I say. Hurricane Ike is going south of Cuba.

It's a Hurricane... there is no logic as they are totally unpredictable.

[Lodesman]

Oh give me a break Rick - Ike went over Cuba (or through it), not South. To say they are totally unpredictable is a fallacy. While they may jink around a bit, the general motion is entirely predictable, which allows weather services to issue warnings.

[Tropic Cat]

Originally Posted by Lodesman

Oh give me a break Rick - Ike went over Cuba (or through it), not South. To say they are totally unpredictable is a fallacy. While they may jink around a bit, the general motion is entirely predictable, which allows weather services to issue warnings.

If you say so. Now let me give you my take on Canadian Blizzards...

[hellosailor]

Rick, Ike zigged South as a personal favor to me. I'm the guy who naively thought running off north at a right angle to path, into open sea, would be safer than playing with possible lee shores to the south of the track.

Hurricanes don't read the rules, they WRITE them.