Current Hurricane scenario (Ike related)

[teneicm]

You have been out on an extended cruise and are currently anchored off of Long island in the Bahamas. It is 8:00 am Friday morning, September 5 2008. You look at the forecasted computer models and see that Hurricane Ike is tracking exactly for you and is expected to directly hit Long Island as a strong Cat 4 storm around 2:00 am Monday:

Tropical Storm: Tracking Map : Weather Underground (link shows real time info, track may have changed after posting)

You have 66 hours before the storm hits.

Do you attempt to ride it out? (Assume you have the standard equipment neccesary to anchor or tie up i.e. 2 or three anchors is OK, but you cannot magically conjur up 6 anchors and a cruise ship mooring)

Do you flee? (You have been actively cruising, assume that you can be underway in less than 2 hours) If so, where do you go?

Do you wait and see? What's you timeline for decisions?

Does your decision change if Ike was only going to be a Category 1 or 2 storm? What about Cat 5?

[gonesail]

i kick myself in the rear for being in the bahamas in september. can i have the boat hauled out and strapped down? ike is a trick forecast since they don't know if he is going north or south. you would need to wait a few days to know that.

[Soft Air]

The only option at this particular time is to get the boat out of the water, secure her and not take any chances by sailing around such weather.

[slomotion]

Yes, by far the best course would be to haul and secure the boat (and bury the keel). If haul out is not possible, then given the storm's track and speed, you cannot run away (wind is currently SW but projected to clock North by Saturday night). I don't know whether there are any hurricane holes on Long Island. You could make for the creek on Cat Island or Stocking Island in George Town. These are both noted huricane holes, but it could be a foolish trip if you weren't sure there'd be room.

[s/v 'Faith']

Go west young man!

I would head for Georgetown. I would NOT go to Cat Island... the creek at hawks nest is not somewhere I would want to wx a cat 4... and the bight is not much better. I spent a week there while several fronts passed through at the begining of this year, and while my Manson held, apparently most folks find the bottom to be less then agreeable.... and the creek is really narrow.

If it were me I would head for Georgetown, and try to get in the lee of the ridge at monument beach.

Good luck! You and your crew will be in our prayers.

[Latitude9.5]

Good luck finding a yard that ain't full at this point. I'd head for a hurricane hole, depending on where I was. Throw all my anchors out, take the sails off, set em hard, then I'd start securing the anchors and hope for the best.

I hate hurricane season, i have a bad feeling about Ike.

[CharlieCobra]

I'd agree with gonesail, too late to run and no real place to haul. Unload the boat, make sure your insurance is up to date and pray a lot. Ike's gonna be nasty.

[imagine2frolic]

Right now the wind is 11 knots in Georgetown. The storm is moving 16mph, and the storm is 66 hours away. My first choice is the chain across Nassau channel. If there is still breathing room I will continue north until I feel I need a change of plans. If Ike stays on this projected path I will easily outrun any danger.

I nearly always have 600-700 miles of fuel. With 25+ knots on the quarter I can maintain low, and mid teens without pushing the boat sailing alone. I have to agree with gonesail about kicking my own rear for being there in Sept.

[Soft Air]

I like the 700 miles of fuel i2frolic has, just make certain you don't keep inventing cocktails at least during the challenge.

[imagine2frolic]

INVENTING? I most likely will be wishing to drink a few once I get someplace safe. My nerves would be like a cat on a hot tin roof......JUMPY

[teneicm]

Just to clarify- Unfortunately, while it's probably a reality for SOMEONE out there on Long Island, we are quite safe and in Chicago (although the remnants of Gustaf did drown us with 3 inches of rain yesterday). I agree it's bad planning to be in the Bahamas this time of year, but hey, sometimes things happen and I was just thinking- hmmm, what would I do if I was in fact there right now?

[imagine2frolic]

I guess it would depend on what local knowledge you have, what type of boat, and what speeds can be maintained? My fear would be to slow down, and stop to look for a hole. Only to find there is no room, so I would just keep going to Nassau, and make a decision from there with up to date weather reports. I believe in Chris Parker's forecast. His forecast has taken me from Nassau to Jax Florida between 2 northern storms safely, and quickly.

[Lodesman]

Originally Posted by gonesail

ike is a trick forecast since they don't know if he is going north or south. you would need to wait a few days to know that.

I haven't been following the forecasts, but am curious as to how many hurricanes have ever gone South?

I think I would choose to run South as far and as fast as possible.

Kevin

[Soft Air]

mmm don't mention it...my boat is on the hard in the BVI while I have been crosssing my fingers somewhere else.

Hope they don't head south

[cagney]

Originally Posted by imagine2frolic

I guess it would depend on what local knowledge you have, what type of boat, and what speeds can be maintained? My fear would be to slow down, and stop to look for a hole. Only to find there is no room, so I would just keep going to Nassau, and make a decision from there with up to date weather reports. I believe in Chris Parker's forecast. His forecast has taken me from Nassau to Jax Florida between 2 northern storms safely, and quickly.

My choice would be to proceed as fast as possible on a southerly course towards Windward passage and into the Caribbean. Initially there will be some moderate headwinds, but decreasing. When the wind from Ike comes through, they will be from a northerly direction.
This choice is classical tactic....move into the navigable semi circle.

The problems with seeking local shelter is already mentioned by others. Sailing north takes you into the dangerous semicircle.
Have a look at the historical tracks for another reason not to head north.

From "HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18"
THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN
THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE.

This is another reason for me not to punt on heading north.

What I'm suggesting is not for the faint of heart, but I think it's what I would do, especially if I had a lovely cat like Imagine with good power range and the ability to put the northerly wind in front of Ike to good use. This choice requires you to get going asap, with no delays.
Happily, this is just an armchair exercise, but I can't help thinking back on a September delivery from Tampa through the Bahamas to Tortola, a long time ago. Luckily , no tropical systems in sight, just no wind at all .
Thomas

PS Lodesman, you beat me i suggesting the southerly option