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Old 08-09-2008, 23:18   #46
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Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes are like children. Some behave some don't. You will always find that many are well behaved but there are a few trouble makers.

Check out the following link. Katrina in 98 and Justin in 97 didn't do much damage but did many U turns.


Tropical Cyclone Information for the Australian Region


Good luck to all of you, I hope Ike doesn't behave as predicted does a U turn and dissipates.
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Old 09-09-2008, 09:10   #47
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If you say so. Now let me give you my take on Canadian Blizzards...
Bring it on

I don't understand why anyone would think a hurricane forecast should be any more accurate or reliable than any weather forecast. Compare the Atlantic hurricanes to the Australian cyclones - now those suckers really are unpredictable.
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Old 09-09-2008, 10:45   #48
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Thank you Hud and Lodesman for your kind words!

I played a similar "what if hypothetical game" with Ivan 2004 and ...
man, did I get it wrong, like most other people. Huds description of Ivans forecast and behavior is spot on.

What about this for a scary picture? Left picture below


This is good background when contemplating forecast accuracy. Right picture.
I noticed that the official forecast was constantly to the north of Ike's real track, for two, three days after the start of this challenge.


What these pictures don't show is that, whatever rule you come up with for hurricanes, you can most likly find a hurricane that contradicts it.
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Old 10-09-2008, 12:22   #49
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I learned through experience that for me at least, it's better to be on land wishing I was on the water than on the water wishing I was on land. I'd focus on getting the boat as safe as possible and then I'd head off to the airport and see where the next seat was flying to. At the end of it all, the boat's replaceable. I'm not.
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Old 10-09-2008, 12:29   #50
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I learned through experience that for me at least, it's better to be on land wishing I was on the water than on the water wishing I was on land. I'd focus on getting the boat as safe as possible and then I'd head off to the airport and see where the next seat was flying to. At the end of it all, the boat's replaceable. I'm not.

I thought all good Captains went down with his ship?? If Captain Ahab had access to a Coast Guard chopper, would he have taken the rescue?
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Old 10-09-2008, 12:41   #51
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Captain Ahab wouldn't need a Coast Gaurd chopper if he wasn't sailing around in hurrincanes.
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Old 12-09-2008, 09:21   #52
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Good Job!

Quote:
Originally Posted by cagney View Post
Time for an update from the souther route. How are we doing
in this hypothetical armchair challenge?
I have no good explanation at all for being at Long Island in the first place!!

After making our decision we left Clarence Town Friday at 1400Z.
Initially we had about 15 knots of headwind, but mainly light wind.
We have averaged 6 knots. Our position Sunday at 0900Z is
N19 08.9 W79 39.5.
We are expecting to get up to 25 knots of wind from a Southerly direction in about 24h time as Ike passes well to the north of us. This estimate comes from the latest gribfile.
We will probably heave to then, and sit it out. Most likely we will continue to El Porvenir (San Blas) after Ike has passed to get out of dealing with
Great Job Cagney! I made the same mental decision,(right behind you and Lodesman apparently) figuring my Cat would not have any chance of getting pulled out and speed is a virtue. North bothered me because Ike clearly had a counter-clockwise rotation. Being the furthest thing from a hurricane expert, I rationalized that as the storm was bearing down, by going south, I would have wind I could use. Looking at the Grib, I would be reaching into Haiti to avoid the worst of the storm surge as Hud pointed out will be following right behind this sucker.

Is this wind pattern typical for hurricanes? Is there any probability that spin direction correlates to surface winds as the monster closes in?
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Old 12-09-2008, 11:23   #53
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Wouldn't heading south put you in the path of the storm? As you can see by heading north it would have been on the quarter, and running away. The day of the question the qwinds were only 11+ knots on the quarter also. Nassau looks much safer than Haiti, or anywhere south of Long Cay & Acklin until you are completely south of Haiti, and DR. What am I missing?





Hurricane IKE
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Old 12-09-2008, 12:21   #54
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Quote:
Is this wind pattern typical for hurricanes? Is there any probability that spin direction correlates to surface winds as the monster closes in?
All huricanes in the northern hemisphere rotate the same direction. If the pressure at the eye is low enough they stay very compact and spin faster. In the southern hemisphere they rotate the other way.Hurricanes rotate just like the drain in your bath tub. Exactly for the same same reasons - the rotation of the earth. How those folks down under deal with the bath tub drains going backward amazes me. They also look over the other shoulder when the storm comes.
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Old 12-09-2008, 12:23   #55
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Is this wind pattern typical for hurricanes? Is there any probability that spin direction correlates to surface winds as the monster closes in?
SW - all hurricanes in the northern hemisphere turn counter-clockwise; in the southern hemisphere cyclones go clockwise. Surface winds would correlate as with any other low-pressure system, just a bit stronger

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Old 12-09-2008, 12:29   #56
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Wouldn't heading south put you in the path of the storm?
Well as it turned out - yes, and conventional wisdom says to avoid crossing the path of a hurricane. But at the time the path was directly at you, so the same wisdom tells you to go perpendicular to the hurricane's path in the direction of the least-dangerous semi-circle. Trouble with going north is that 99.9% of Atlantic hurricanes eventually turn North - Ike bucked the trend a bit by dipsy-doodling Southwesterly for awhile. If I was actually there - I would still be happy with my decision to head South when I did.

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Old 12-09-2008, 13:47   #57
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Good luck and God speed to everyone on the Texas gulf coast. I wish all of you the best, my thoughts and prayers are with you.

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Old 12-09-2008, 14:02   #58
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Joli,

DITTO!!!!!!,

The storm was already veering south when the challenge came. This is what gave me my decision on direction. Plus the chain across Nassau channel. With a 66 hr headstart, and the storm only moving 16mph. I could maintain that distance for as long as needed. The rattle of my knees knocking would have kept me awake for days.....LOLOLOLOL
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