Investor Sentiment

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by skatastrophy

@sneuman - we saw how much the bailout helped. It was a waste of money that the taxpayers will be paying for for years. If I eff up my personal finances, I don't expect to get bailed out. I pay the consequences.

There were plenty of existing National and International financial institutions that were ready and willing to snap up the failing investment houses at a bargain. Instead the government gave them a freebie that is going to cost the american taxpayer.



You realize that the only banks that are doing well are the ones that took advantage of the repeal of a portion of the Glass-Steagall Act, right? The ones that were hedging their bets between Retail banking and Investment banking are holding steady. The Investment houses are the ones that crashed and the easily-excitable Democratic congress freaked out and spent a few hundred billion to "fix everything."

I'm not suggesting the bailout was the right thing -- at best, it's a muddled attempt to do something. At worst, it's a huge waste of money. Only time will tell.

I am not, however, in agreement with those who believe the correct answer is to do nothing. If 1929 tells us anything, it's that such an approach only makes matters worse. Besides, the worst thing that could happen is for the rest of the world to go down too, as that flatlines the global economy and makes resucitation that much harder.

The U.S. made the bad loans and sold them to the rest of the world. Above all else, we are seen (rightly) as the root of the problem. We have not only a practical reason, but a moral/ethical one for trying to fix it.

One thing is for sure: U.S. credibility abroad could hardly be lower right now. The first term of the next president, whoever that should be, will not be a happy one at all.

[Dave the Canuck]

Originally Posted by Ex-Calif

2 - I used to hang out with traders. I couldn't beleive the amount of money these "kids" were able to throw around. If 25 year old kids are making $500k a year a) something illegal is going on or b) Something is being sold that is all hype. You wind up a 25 year old trader and go tell him to sell snot and he is going to figure out how to sell more snot than anyone. Usually to another 25 year old. And there is no oversight on these fellows.

Picture of a protest by some Lehman Brothers employees...

[Therapy]

Originally Posted by Southern Star

the cost of materials - e.g., resin (a petrochemical product), dacron (ditto) and metals such as aluminum (which requires a great deal of energy to produce) will likely also continue to rise.
3. an advantage to the purchase of a used boat (as opposed to the purchase of a used house) in the current market, is that none of the purchase price goes towards the cost of land, the value of which will likely continue to drop in the short term. In other words, unlike the cost of new boats, the cost of many new homes will also drop.

Brad

This makes me wonder about the "total" cost of a used boat.
Used boats from what I have read usually have to have some new resin, dacron and metals.
Hmmm.

[Whimsical]

Originally Posted by sneuman

The U.S. made the bad loans and sold them to the rest of the world.

Well every country needs an export industry of some sort desn't it.

Mike

[cat man do]

Originally Posted by Dave the Canuck

Picture of a protest by some Lehman Brothers employees...

Sad guys on Trading Floors


Ew ew ew ew ewwwww! Stop it!




Uh oh. The market has gone from “face palm” to “face fist.”


Sad Guys on Trading Floors


Dave

[GMac]

Originally Posted by Southern Star

I
The end result is that when the economy rebounds and there are once again a large number of people with the wherewithal to purchase 'luxury' items such as a large boat, the initial differential between used and new boats will likely be disproportionately high. This can only operate so as to also push up the value of used boats in a disproportionate way.

Conclusion: The time has never been better to upgrade through the purchase of a larger used boat.

This week -
85ft performance cruiser. Moulds built, owner canned the project.
100ft Sailing Crusing Multi - owner gone broke, rumoured to be a Futures trader. Project canned.
140fter Mono - project canned after funding fell through.
100ft performance racer - Reprocessed. On the market for 2mil. Launched 2 years ago for 7mil.
A couple of 50ft Launches - owners all canned projects due to sudden reduction in incomes.

That's NZ only and after our $ went from 73c US to 60, so made them a big pile cheaper.

And I'd say that's only the start. Tough life being not so rich this week.

[Maren]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Deregulation ...

That does seem to describe the common sentiment.

I find it really funny.

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by GMac

<snip>
Tough life being not so rich this week.

"Life is tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid," said John Wayne, though I'm sure the sellers from your list thought they were genii when they were contracting for those vessels.

TaoJones

[GordMay]

Important Stock Market Info:

Normally I avoid discussing any advice regarding buying or selling of specific stocks, but I felt this is important enough to share and warn you, since this explosive situation might prove to be yet another ENRON or worse.

Please review any holdings you might have in the following stocks:

Canadian Can,
Inter Provincial Water,
National Gas Company,
Northern Tissue Company.

Due to uncertain market conditions, I advise you to sit tight on your Canadian Can, hold your Water, and let go of your Gas.

You may be interested to know that Northern Tissue touched a new bottom today, and millions were wiped clean.

[Pelagic]

I almost fell off my chair on that one Gord. Brilliant!

[Southern Star]

Therapy, I am not suggesting that any used boat is a good buy - care must still be taken, obviously, with respect to the type of boat and the condition by means of a careful survey. However, if the boat requires a great deal of resin to (presumably) repair a serious delamination problem, it likely would not be a good buy regardless of the cost of the necessary resin/core materials, etc.

It should also be noted that the current down-turn has left a number of marine suppliers overstocked and/or in a serious financial squeeze. This can result in some pretty incredible bargains for replacement hardware, etc.

For example, I have recently purchased several new in the box, offshore Moonlight portlights with screens and machine screws for less than 25% of the list price. These are exact replacements for the ports used by the manufacturer of my boat (and numerous other production multis including Fastcat). I suspect that my price of $85.00 for 16 1/16" x 5 5/16" (interior dimension) aluminum offshore ports with screens and mounting hardware is less than the manufacturers are now paying per unit, even on extremely large orders. Yes, finding the real bargains may require some patience, but it is an option available for the individual owner re-fitting a yacht that is not available to the manufacturer of new yachts (who require a steady supply of new materials and hardware with relatively fixed delivery dates).

In any event, I bought my cat 2 years ago at what, at the time, was an incredibly low price (it was a bank repo which was fundamentally sound, but cosmetically a disaster). In the current market, even though the demand for cats has remained relatively high, I believe that I would be hard-pressed to get my money back. Nevertheless, I am still reaping a benefit in being able to buy many of the replacement parts at less (and some times substantially less) than I had budgeted for.

Others may disagree, but for the reasons cited in an earlier post, I believe that the difference in price between comparable new and used boats has never been higher. I also believe that once the market recovers sufficiently, that disparity will shrink by a relative increase in the price of well-maintained used boats. I suspect that this will be particularly true for at least certain sailboats (as energy costs are , despite the very recent downturn, going to continue to be very high). Catamarans, since they make wonderful motorsailors and since they are, due to the lack of heeling, particularly easy for power boaters to adapt to, may well head the list. And even if they do not, catamarans have one other benefit in these troubled times: they make wonderful homes in cruising grounds such as the caribbean, where some lucky people can go to benefit from the lower cost of living (and the better climate) while 'waiting out the storm'.

Brad

[Southern Star]

P.S. Please don't take this as a serious promotion of the idea of buying a larger used sailboat as an 'investment'. Really, all I was trying to do was get the topic back to something relevant to a 'cruiser's' forum. In that connection I was pointing out that for those who were already considering/planning on the purchase of a larger boat in the next few years, now might be a particularly good time to start looking for a relative 'fire sale' on a well-cared for and equipped used boat that would fit your eventual needs.

Brad

[Therapy]

Southern Star,

What a deal on the replacement parts!

I agree with you. I think you are correct on all points.

Your last paragraph is particularly insightful.

I apologize for my "contrariness".

[Southern Star]

No apologies needed Therapy - and if I am correct on all points, it will be the first time!

Brad

[Dave the Canuck]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Important Stock Market Info:

Normally I avoid discussing any advice regarding buying or selling of specific stocks, but I felt this is important enough to share and warn you, since this explosive situation might prove to be yet another ENRON or worse.

Please review any holdings you might have in the following stocks:

Canadian Can,
Inter Provincial Water,
National Gas Company,
Northern Tissue Company.

Due to uncertain market conditions, I advise you to sit tight on your Canadian Can, hold your Water, and let go of your Gas.

You may be interested to know that Northern Tissue touched a new bottom today, and millions were wiped clean.

Groooooan....