Investor Sentiment

[Dave the Canuck]

"This is worse than a divorce. I've lost half of my net worth and I'm still married".

[starfish62]

Originally Posted by Dave the Canuck

"This is worse than a divorce. I've lost half of my net worth and I'm still married".

Excellent!

[Palarran]

Dave - thanks for the quote. I haven't had a lot to laugh at this last two month but that one got me going. I'm passing it around to about everyone I know.

Hey - the good news if if you have any money and want to buy a boat in Europe, it got 15% cheaper this month.

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by rigamarole

Dave - thanks for the quote. I haven't had a lot to laugh at this last two month but that one got me going. I'm passing it around to about everyone I know.

Hey - the good news if if you have any money and want to buy a boat in Europe, it got 15% cheaper this month.

It would be more correct to put it this way, rigmarole:

"If you have any $US, and want to buy a boat in Europe, it got 15% cheaper in Euros this month."

The recent phenomenon of the rocketing rise in the $US should be regarded with a great deal of skepticism, in my view. It is largely a function of the panic which swept the markets over the last couple of months, as investors all tried to sell their equities at the same time and then moved the proceeds into the "safety" of US Treasuries.

Keep in mind the adage that "nothing grows to the sky," so just as the rising $US looks like a rocket launch on a chart, it will resemble a rocket that fails to reach orbit, runs out of fuel, then falls like space-junk as order is restored to the markets.

So many buy orders went into US Treasuries that the yield dropped to levels well-below the rate of inflation - in other words, investors were paying the government a premium for the privilege of lending it their money. Incredible.

A lengthy period of inflation is already "baked into the cake," as they say. But don't take my word for it. The following is from Anna Schwartz, who wrote A Monetary History of the United States with Milton Friedman:

Tearing Into the Fed and Treasury Plans - Barrons.com

TaoJones

[slomotion]

Originally Posted by TaoJones

so just as the rising $US looks like a rocket launch on a chart, it will resemble a rocket that fails to reach orbit, runs out of fuel, then falls like space-junk as order is restored to the markets.

There are also boats in the Caribbean which are priced in Euros and Pounds. So, someone holding dollars (or better yet, yen) may have a window of opportunity to get a substantial discount. However, Tao is right. The dollar will likely fall back soon - just today the Fed cut rates.

[Palarran]

Tao, thanks for the correction. Narrow minded of me for such a worldly diverse forum as this. I'm still watching prices for boats. Regardless of denomination there should be some good deals on the horizon.

[David M]

Originally Posted by Dave the Canuck

"This is worse than a divorce. I've lost half of my net worth and I'm still married".

Lost half his net worth? ...Thats why you diversify, and I don't mean having more than one wife.

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by David M

Lost half his net worth? ...Thats why you diversify, and I don't mean having more than one wife.

Yes, diversification is a plausible theory under stable market conditions, but in the recent panic-selling there was literally no place to hide. When sellers are desperate to sell at any price, one sees the mirror image of Greenspan's "irrational exuberance." That is, irrational panic.

In such conditions, it's probably safer to have more than one wife than a fully-invested portfolio.

TaoJones

[Dave the Canuck]

Originally Posted by David M

Lost half his net worth? ...Thats why you diversify, and I don't mean having more than one wife.

I'm diversified. I've got Shell AND Exxon.... Hey, wait a minute...

[Liberty28]

For what it's worth, we're extraordinarily diversified in our investments and have been in a defensive mode for years. The current market has wiped out all of the gains we saw over the previous 12-years. Playing by the rules doesn't always mean you'll win, nor will obsessing about it restore lost funds. The upside is that, for at least a little while, the U.S. will have a chance to grow up and start acting a little more responsible. Unfortunately, our government is more concerned about a citizen revolt than really solving the problems (as in let capitalism work and let the markets collapse and let the companies go under the way they're supposed to do when they screw up!).

Cheers!
Captain HoBo

[Dave the Canuck]

To quote an advisor who is either wise or mad... (and I'm certain that I misquote)

The only animals who'll get hurt are the chickens and the pigs. The chickens who've sold their equities after the plunge and locked in their losses, and the pigs who are 1-2 years from retirement and overweighted in equities.

To the rest of us; Dollar Cost Averaging, Baby.

[Whimsical]

Originally Posted by TaoJones

there was literally no place to hide.

There's always cash if you see it coming.
Having fun now buying it all back.

Mike

[Dave the Canuck]

So what have we learned in 2 millennia?

"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must once again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."

Cicero-55BC


Apparently nothing.

[starfish62]

Originally Posted by slomotion

There are also boats in the Caribbean which are priced in Euros and Pounds. So, someone holding dollars (or better yet, yen) may have a window of opportunity to get a substantial discount. However, Tao is right. The dollar will likely fall back soon - just today the Fed cut rates.

Nevermind

[GordMay]

I doubt that Marcus Tullius Cicero ever actually wrote/uttered such a statement.
Do you have any documentation supporting the veracity of the alleged quotation?