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Old 06-08-2013, 00:17   #796
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Every one has a point of view and entitled to it. These guys have a much clearer picture of where the nina should be based upon the models. There is another step in process. Until they find wreckage, my vote to give them the benefit of the doubt. By the way, you might check their page out, photo after photo of people they found which the authorities couldn't find. After watching them, there is a real science to it. I arrived skeptical, and am now impressed.

Wouldn't you want the benefit of the doubt?

As stated, there are lots of tactics you can use for long term survival at sea. Not always the most pleasant and you lose some weight, but we have the Glennie survival in the same area for 118 days. After talking with Glennie, I think he would have made it a lot more days, precisely for some of the reasons stated, namely he made up his mind he was going to do it and was willing to make the sacrifices required.

The problem right now is not the number of days. The problem is, how do we find them? If we wait the five months it took the Scotch Bonnet to float to Australia then we might need to worry about survival.

How do we find them? Narrowing the target some through sophisticated methods then an orion P3 is a good start.

If you are going to rob me, take my money, take my car, but don't steal my hope. I know you share this, many of you, because Cherie said you were very supportive, and for that I am grateful.

Just a point of view.
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Old 06-08-2013, 00:19   #797
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Boatman, that has to be the most articulate, competent thing to be said. When they leave the dock on a passage is when their world exists unto themselves. It has always been that way, I suspect sailors everywhere would prefer it be that way.
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Old 06-08-2013, 02:22   #798
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Originally Posted by la vida nueva View Post
Every one has a point of view and entitled to it. These guys have a much clearer picture of where the nina should be based upon the models. There is another step in process. Until they find wreckage, my vote to give them the benefit of the doubt. By the way, you might check their page out, photo after photo of people they found which the authorities couldn't find. After watching them, there is a real science to it. I arrived skeptical, and am now impressed.

Wouldn't you want the benefit of the doubt?

As stated, there are lots of tactics you can use for long term survival at sea. Not always the most pleasant and you lose some weight, but we have the Glennie survival in the same area for 118 days. After talking with Glennie, I think he would have made it a lot more days, precisely for some of the reasons stated, namely he made up his mind he was going to do it and was willing to make the sacrifices required.

The problem right now is not the number of days. The problem is, how do we find them? If we wait the five months it took the Scotch Bonnet to float to Australia then we might need to worry about survival.

How do we find them? Narrowing the target some through sophisticated methods then an orion P3 is a good start.

If you are going to rob me, take my money, take my car, but don't steal my hope. I know you share this, many of you, because Cherie said you were very supportive, and for that I am grateful.

Just a point of view.
Omg... do you even know the people aboard? I don't think you do! You jump from one missing boat to the next, always asking for money. Working on the emotional state of family and friends of those aboard to donate hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars for a search that can not be done because the area is too big. If you want to volunteer, why not do something other than work on emotions to shake money from pockets?!

You saw special current analysis with new results? Where did you see that, in Colorado or did somebody send it to you? How do you know it is good? Why don't we see it? What did it cost? If there really is good, new info out there, volunteer your time to educate us and bring that info out. Also, explain your link with that Texas organization that needs money to survive and why you are in every thread about missing boats, asking for money?

I have friends aboard and am getting a bit upset with you. Is this for new material for your blog or radio show? You wrote that you lost all your own money, do you get a commision for money you raise here? I just have trouble believing you're here because the faith of the missing people is keeping you awake at night. I may be wrong in which case I'm sorry but you need to back off here and stop asking for money when you're out of it and when the organization that needs the checks sent to is also in dire straits and needs money for their own survival.
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Old 06-08-2013, 04:05   #799
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

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Talk has been made about poor sails... speculation by the inexperienced... even new sails can be blown out in a gale... shoot... I've seen furled Genoa's in marina's shredded in a real blow...
+1

Whilst a sail blowing out at the wrong time could be serious, nonetheless on it's own won't be catastrophic, and given that a text was sent after the event clearly the Nina survived losing a storm sail.

and of course just because one sail was lost is not an indicator that the sail was in poor condition, let alone any of the others.

Given the time that has now elapsed, for me the main indicator that something catastrophic has already (long ago) happened is that the EPIRB has not been set off. Obviously a chance that it is malfunctioning, but seems that is on the less than 1% end of likely (and probably in the region of 0.01%). IMO even less of a chance that the crew would not have by now activated the EPIRB, not because they are late but because this late would mean they were in great difficulty and would also know that a SAR would very probably have been launched anyway.

The harsh truth is with small boats crossing oceans that part of the risk (for the crew onboard) is that folks ashore will not know when a vessel is in trouble until afterwards, and then only by time elapsed and non-arrival, which will be long after any SAR will help........unless the crew are able to issue an alert for themselves (and even then no guarantee that assistance is either available or will arrive in time). Modern technology (EPIRBS / SatPhones etc) changes that risk, but does not eliminate it.
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Old 06-08-2013, 04:20   #800
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

"I just have trouble believing you're here because the faith of the missing people is keeping you awake at night. I may be wrong in which case I'm sorry"

You are right. You should be sorry.


Let's get back to the topic at hand. I believe this yacht is afloat. I believe the communications equipment failed because of lack of power, and the SPOT was not working well anyway. The EPIRB was not tested that any one knows about. That is the kind of thing sailors talk to their loved ones about. We know about a crew of four lost at sea after leaving New Zealand who survived 118 days and would have made it quite a few more. (Rose Noelle). The engine was new and could easily have developed a problem, we already know about the sails.

The Scotch Bonnet was abandoned not too far from the last known position of the Nina. It took her 5 and one half months to make her way across the ditch to Australia. She washed up in 2012. She was spotted only one time during her journey. She was abandoned with her main hatch open, and the cruise ship which spotted her left the forward hatch open, yet she made it all that way.

We have seven people, some of whom made wonderful contributions to our society including Evi Nemeth formerly from Colorado. Others are young and will make contributions. All of these sailors are wonderful people and they deserve the very best search possible. If the authorities can be convinced to take a final look, that will be the best of all worlds.

What would you want if you were out there? I can tell you what I wanted when I got my tail in trouble. I wanted help. None was coming for a very long time. I got lucky. This crew needs our love and support for a new search effort, is most of my point. Again, that will be best if we can convince the guys with the high tech military equipment to do it.
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Old 06-08-2013, 04:41   #801
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Old 06-08-2013, 04:55   #802
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

Try this one, Drift course using the currents,

At 3 knots drift, 24/7 for 36 days, 2600 NM from last reported position,

Should put the Nina some where near or between the dots on the map,
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Old 06-08-2013, 05:11   #803
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

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Try this one, Drift course using the currents,

At 3 knots drift, 24/7 for 36 days, 2600 NM from last reported position,

Should put the Nina some where near or between the dots on the map,
I think having slipped past NZ unnoticed is a possibility - but firmly in the realms of a long shot given the more likely scenario for no contact and / or different possibilities for a drift. But very informative to see nonetheless .

As suggested a lot earlier, it is this sort of info (and charts) that the family / friends (not internet nutters) should be posting up on own website to provide a simple source of info on the events and present situation rather than relying on others / having info scattered all over the web. Should be able to get most of the Facts / Story on one page.....as well as info on what folks can do to help.
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Old 06-08-2013, 05:22   #804
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

I'm not positive...but I bet most search organizations work the same way as training is often shared and international.

SAR doesn't care who you are or what contributions to society you made (the boss politicians might...but not the SAR teams)...I've risked my life to save smugglers, prisoners, etc...etc....everyone gets a fair shot.

SAR experts will call off the search once a "reasonable, professional" estimation of probable survival time is exhausted. Doesn't matter how many tears are shed, they make the call (again unless the politicians step in and that only works for so long as other politicians come to see the whole picture)....

Like police work...searches can/might be restarted with "new" evidence. Also, active searching will cease but the case may remain open for awhile as "chance" sightings by rescue resources on training or other missions may still occur (not likely in this case due to large areas) or by other aircraft/surface vessels.

As to what life is worth..can't say for other Govts but the USA did attach a number to every citizen...it was used in many situations...but usually not in SAR.... If the SAR teams are sued...then yes..that number would come up for the legal battle.
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Old 06-08-2013, 05:24   #805
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

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So the plan it to try and "blame" iridium?

it will not work. the service is sold as a "maybe it will get thru"
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Old 06-08-2013, 05:32   #806
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

As for current data....the rescuers possibly have or at least might have access to classified data. Not often needed...but it can be accessed in certain situations. The problem is if anything legal comes out of it, the data and source of that data (at least if USA data in US courts) could be compromised....so in many cases it may not be requested except under certain circumstances.

Some of the same data could possibly be purchased from companies or institutions that collect open sea data...not sure what all the possibilities are...

I would be surprised if someone out there didn't have reasonable, real time data that could predict drift better than pilot charts.
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Old 06-08-2013, 05:48   #807
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I agree. They do not represent me or Nina.

I've said that if Nina comes home, it will be by her own power .

Cherie
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Old 06-08-2013, 05:53   #808
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

You could possibly contact the Pilots association in Australia or NZ,

Ask them, ( The Pilots) to ask their passengers flying between Australia, NZ and South America to watch out for any boats they fly over,

Thats a very empty ocean for any Boats or ships, So any sighting could be of interest.

VHF is line of sight, So if a plane does fly over, They would have contact, But down there,

Even a fly over by a commercial flight would be Iffy,
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Old 06-08-2013, 05:58   #809
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Mr B it has been done. Actually a Quantas flt heard ELT but not our boat and Air Canada a couple of weeks ago located a bare boat. But they are extremely lucky.

Thanks everyone for support. I agree it's bad to take advantage of people when they are vulnerable!!

Cherie
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Old 06-08-2013, 09:58   #810
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Re: Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

I agree, keeping Aircraft and ships well advised, as well as private yachts, is the best search for the moment. One never knows what one will come across in the pacific.
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