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Old 02-06-2018, 20:56   #1
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Near or above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

In their latest forecast NOAA is predicting a normal or above-normal Atlantic hurricane season...

Forecasters predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

This is a step in the right direction from the previous forecast, which predicted a more violent season than the last one.
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Old 02-06-2018, 22:05   #2
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Re: Near or above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

Not being snarky here, but is the track record of the NHC's forecasts accurate at all? I seem to remember that they're about on par with random chance on these.
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Old 03-06-2018, 04:14   #3
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Re: Near or above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

They’re getting better, though.

Preliminary data show that 2017 NHC Atlantic track forecasts set record low errors at all time frames and, for the three landfalling category 4 hurricanes, the track errors were about 25 percent below the most recent 5-year mean errors. There was also some notable success in forecasting rapid intensification. One such case occurred about 36 hour before Harvey’s landfall, when the NHC forecast Harvey to become a high-end category 3 hurricane before reaching the Texas coast. This forecast captured Harvey's rapid intensification and was only 5 kt below the landfall intensity -- a remarkable forecast for such a quickly changing situation.

In preparation for the 2018 season, the National Hurricane Center changed some of their forecast products.

Public advisory text forecast information will now forecast beyond 48 hours out.

They will also begin issuing 48-hour hurricane force wind forecasts. This will give an additional 12 hours of forecast information compared to the previous standard of 36 hours.

While it may seem like a small change, it can make all the difference.

"It gives us the opportunity to get better forecasts with more information for a longer period of time, That gives us that extra amount of planning time before a storm arrives in our area," said Leon County Emergency Management Director Kevin Peters.

The NHC will also debut a tropical storm-force winds graphic that will show potential arrival times of such winds. The goal is to give people an idea of when storm preparations should be done. Especially for coastal communities. Those communities are often the ones that need to evacuate before an incoming storm.

NHC changes forecast products for 2018 hurricane season
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