Ukraine Crisis

[roverhi]

The Crimea was part of Russia till the mid '50s. Apparently Kruschev had some ties to the Ukraine and redrew the borders including it in the Ukraine. In the good old days of the Soviet Union, the independent republics were not very independent so it was mainly a paper transfer. With the breakup of the Soviet Union, the borders of the Republics came to mean something that didn't translate into the loyalties of the various residents. Sevastopol is Russia's primary ice free port and has been for centuries. There is no way they are going to give up control of that short of nuclear war. The question is how much of the Russian speaking Ukraine or the Ukraine as a whole they may either annex or set up puppet governments that they control.

If you look at in a strictly legal aspect. Putin is actually in the right as he is acting at the behest of a duly elected head of state who was forced out of the country by a revolutionary mob.

In any case, there is little we can do and what's more dangerous, little that Putin thinks we will do.

[Neo]

Originally Posted by roverhi

If you look at in a strictly legal aspect. Putin is actually in the right as he is acting at the behest of a duly elected head of state who was forced out of the country by a revolutionary mob.

In any case, there is little we can do and what's more dangerous, little that Putin thinks we will do.

Spot on!

It is important for a country to be strong, either militarily or economically, or it will get eaten alive. No country is your friend unless they are your equal. Putin is only doing what we would do if it was in our best interest. Although, that does not make it right.

The term international law is a misnomer. It's more like kids in a playground, staking out territory, making allies, avoiding bullies.

[robert sailor]

One persons revolutionary mob is another persons freedom fighter just depends who you are and how you look at it.

[mrm]

Originally Posted by roverhi

If you look at in a strictly legal aspect. Putin is actually in the right as he is acting at the behest of a duly elected head of state who was forced out of the country

Could you expand on that a bit. I am curious what legal arguments to support your claim you come up with. Most (i.e. all outside Russia) experts on international law would tend to rather strongly disagree with you, I think.

[tropicalescape]

Originally Posted by roverhi

The Crimea was part of Russia till the mid '50s. Apparently Kruschev had some ties to the Ukraine and redrew the borders including it in the Ukraine. In the good old days of the Soviet Union, the independent republics were not very independent so it was mainly a paper transfer. With the breakup of the Soviet Union, the borders of the Republics came to mean something that didn't translate into the loyalties of the various residents. Sevastopol is Russia's primary ice free port and has been for centuries. There is no way they are going to give up control of that short of nuclear war. The question is how much of the Russian speaking Ukraine or the Ukraine as a whole they may either annex or set up puppet governments that they control.

If you look at in a strictly legal aspect. Putin is actually in the right as he is acting at the behest of a duly elected head of state who was forced out of the country by a revolutionary mob.

In any case, there is little we can do and what's more dangerous, little that Putin thinks we will do.

That "duly elected leader" has a mass murder warrant on his head..in 1999(?) Russia had a lease on the navy base in exchange for international protection and recognition(with the west) nothing legal about what Putin has done ,NOTHING, this is tantamount to war..He will in the end get a longer lease if he is lucky..If not , he will get a war..a side note: If gas goes below $100.00 a barrel Putin is finished,that is the only thing that has kept him in power this long...

[Tropic Cat]

Originally Posted by roverhi

The Crimea was part of Russia till the mid '50s. Apparently Kruschev had some ties to the Ukraine and redrew the borders including it in the Ukraine. ....

I find myself torn on the issue. Historically, you are certainly correct, however the Russians did sign the Crimea away. Legally, Russia must uphold a treaty. Putin is now saying that since the people have overthrown their legal government, that Russia can now ignore treaties written with that government. Which is perfect circular logic.

Russia is dead wrong on every level of the issue.

Why I'm torn is I know a guy from the Ukraine. Sailed a 30' O'Day and lived aboard until the crisis hit. Then he sold the boat (he was in Florida) and returned home to the Crimea. He has dual citizenship, US/Ukraine.

He's on Russia's side of the issue. This guy is 50 and even though he was born and raised in the Ukraine, he was literally in the Russian Army, has Russian Friends and Russian Army buddies.

This could be a civil war.

[atoll]

18 billion of EU funding for the NEW ukraine says status quo will be restored soon if they want to get their hands on the dosh...........

[tropicalescape]

No country can invade and claim another countrys land..Obama said it like this,"this is the 21st century and no country can draw borders over the head of another government"...this will not fly...

[Captain Ludd]

Originally Posted by tropicalescape

No country can invade and claim another countrys land..Obama said it like this,"this is the 21st century and no country can draw borders over the head of another government"...this will not fly...

Unless you declare the current government part of "the axis of evil", declare the leader of the opposition the "real leader" and then invade after he "asks you for "help".

[Tropic Cat]

Originally Posted by Captain Ludd

Unless you declare the current government part of "the axis of evil", declare the leader of the opposition the "real leader" and then invade after he "asks you for "help".

LOL!!!!! Good one and completely true.

What this really comes down to is oil and gas. Russia is supplying Europe. Especially the Natural Gas. Putin feels he has Europe by the proverbial "short hairs", and can do whatever he wants.

From where I'm sitting, the guy may be right.

[evm1024]

Interesting positions folks are taking. I get daily updates on the situation from my mother and father in-law who live in Ukraine. Of course the wife follows this quite closely....

The Ukraine parliament has every right to oust the president when that president is as corrupt as Yanukovych is. Fully lawful. And you might ask just who organized the protesters (some in Ukraine say that Russia wanted him out so as to allow for the annexing of Crimea).

A local vote to move Crimea to Russia is in violation to the Ukrainian constitution.

Scuttling a ship so as to block the Ukrainian Navy in port is not an act that protects Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens.

Sending troops without insignia is also not how you lawfully protect Russians. Also, those troops are not covered by the Geneva Convention.

The US and UK do have an agreement to come to Ukraine's aid. Lets hope that there is not shooting.

I think that we can say that the Black Sea Fleet's lease might be up for revision when this is over.

Oh, yes, Take a look at where the Black Sea Fleet is. Can you say Pearl Harbor?

Regards

[tropicalescape]

Originally Posted by evm1024

Interesting positions folks are taking. I get daily updates on the situation from my mother and father in-law who live in Ukraine. Of course the wife follows this quite closely....

The Ukraine parliament has every right to oust the president when that president is as corrupt as Yanukovych is. Fully lawful. And you might ask just who organized the protesters (some in Ukraine say that Russia wanted him out so as to allow for the annexing of Crimea).

A local vote to move Crimea to Russia is in violation to the Ukrainian constitution.

Scuttling a ship so as to block the Ukrainian Navy in port is not an act that protects Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens.

Sending troops without insignia is also not how you lawfully protect Russians. Also, those troops are not covered by the Geneva Convention.

The US and UK do have an agreement to come to Ukraine's aid. Lets hope that there is not shooting.

I think that we can say that the Black Sea Fleet's lease might be up for revision when this is over.

Oh, yes, Take a look at where the Black Sea Fleet is. Can you say Pearl Harbor?

Regards

Same thing applies to Syria,it is another "warm water "seaport that Russia will fight for...Poor little Mongolia is the one thats in real trouble if this mess gets worse,there was a reason that Russia wanted them to have there own "independent country" from China...

[Tropic Cat]

My Prediction is that the Ukrainians will ultimately make concessions, as there's just too much money on the table for America or Germany (fill in all Nato counties here) to do more than offer weak sanctions. Sanctions that won't even slow Putin down.

Just to be clear, I don't think Putin gives a damn about any Russians now living in The Crimea. He cares about his only warm water port.

Russia is holding all the cards, and no European country who is receiving oil and gas from Russia is going to do squat. Some of you mentioned that history seems to be repeating.

I agree, that seems to be the case. But before you begin comparing now to the run up to WWII remember ... the world is a lot more interesting these days with the Global economy so intertwined and so many countries now have nuclear weapons.

What's happening to the Ukraine sucks. But who said the world was fair?

[evm1024]

Putin is acting more like Dictator for life than a freely elected President. The Russian and Ukraine oligarchs wield the power and keep Putin in power and toss others on the street.

If Putin pisses them off too much he will be out. There are some indications that Putin is near the boundary of what he can get away with.

Cut the gas supplies to Europe and the oligarchs feel the pain.

Drop the price of oil, limit Russian passport holders movements in the world, Etc.

These are high value cards.

[mottseng]

Originally Posted by tropicalescape

No country can invade and claim another countrys land..Obama said it like this,"this is the 21st century and no country can draw borders over the head of another government"...this will not fly...

Do you really think Putin cares what Obama says??