Ukraine Crisis

[mrm]

Originally Posted by Tropic Cat

..Russia is holding all the cards, and no European country who is receiving oil and gas from Russia is going to do squat.

That yet remains to be seen. While many EU countries (France, Germany, UK) have strong financial interests in Russia, they also know very well, that business is better conducted in peace. As for energy ties, US has bigger natural gas reserves than Russia and US gas is price competitive even after liquification and transport costs are factored in.

What's happening to the Ukraine sucks. But who said the world was fair?

This is not a question of fairness. This is all about upholding the respect to international law and treaties. Some posters in this thread wrote about international law in a way which might be interpreted as disrespectful. I wonder, whether they realise, that the current ease of cruising worldwide which they enjoy or plan to enjoy comes from international treaties too...

[dpons]

The funny thing for me is Obama's indignation on the illegal "invasion" of Crimea, against international law. He must have forgotten the unprovoked US invasion of Panama and Grenada in recent years, as well as the bombing of Managua's harbor in the 80's. Well, there is also Dominican Republic and Nicaragua early on the 20th century and many more. And it's OK for France to invade African countries too.

Limitless hypocrisy

Originally Posted by chala

And more recently the french reinstating a president in Africa.



They all have theirs own playbooks for that. After all Yalta is in Crimea.
Yalta Conference - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Southern Star]

Tropic Cat, Putin isn't holding all the cards. He has been a terrible economic manager, running up a huge deficit with various projects including the winter olympics. The simple fact is that he needs to sell oil in order to keep the ship afloat - a reduction in production (or in his market) would put the country in a downward spiral similar, if not as serious as the sitation that now exists in Venezuela. So yes, he can threaten stopping sales to Europe if they impose sanctions, but he cannot afford to carry that threat out.

Indeed, if the United States and Saudi Arablia would loosen up reserves for a year or two (and it is generally acknowledged that with the increase in US production now and in the forseeable future, their reserves are too high), they could sell to other countries that are currently buying from Russia. The result would be a loss of markets for Russia in oil and a real impact on their economy. If this were to occur, the European nations need not impose any actual sanctions - they need only increase their purchases from sources other than Russia.

Although these countries would continue to buy some oil from Russia, the increased supply would drive down the price of oil - and since the world value of natural gas tends to rise and fall with oil, drive it down as well. In that way, Russia's sales would decrease as would the amount they were receiving per barrell. One article I read suggested that even if Russia continued its current market share, if oil dropped by $10.00 a barrel Russia would rapidly find itself in some serious difficulty.

If so, where would they turn? Could they then rely upon the World Bank for a short-term bail out? I suspect not, for that is another area where United States, England, Europe, Canada and other nations offended by this could refuse loans pending Russia's withdrawl from the Ukraine.

Why would Saudi Arabia join in on this? Simple. They are on the opposite side of Russia on the issue of Syria and no doubt see this development as particularly troublesome - especially if it signals a trend that could continue into Syria. What is more, various members of OPEC have broken ranks in the past to sell more oil than currently recommended by the cartel.

All of this is wildy speculative, of course. However, it would not surprise me if the US and the Saudis (and the Canadians, who are large exporters and whose Prime Minster has been particularly bellicose about the Russians) are already putting plans in place to open up the reserves and arrange shipping to Europe and other places that Putin believes are dependant upon him. It will take time to play out, of course. In the interim, we can only hope that diplomacy works and gives Putin a way to get out without losing face.

P.S. Keep in mind that what I am proposing are not actually sanctions at all. The US, Canada and Saudi Arabia are entitled to open up their reserves and sell oil to whoever they want. Its the free market system by which Russia has benefitted in the recent past. I think it would be nice to see them suddenly find out that they still don't fully understand the free market system - that it can be an old-boys club that is a little less than free! As to the World Bank - again, not a sanction at all. They are entitled to put conditions on loans and they typically do.

Brad

[mottseng]

FYI - Canada is listed as third for oil reserves under Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. USA is 14th and Russia is 8th. The US isn't in a position to loosen up reserves as they are the largest consumer.

[IdoraKeeper]

I am not aware of any reason why Russia would lose their warm water port....no body has advocated such a thing. The necessary military spending to deter further aggressions will damage the world economy. We are back to the cold war. It will be a very cold winter in Europe next year unless drastic measures are taken to prevent shortages of natural gas. We have no choice but to spend the money for the necessary deterrence. Likely there will also need to be a demonstration of military resolve in some other area, not Russia. This is gonna suck.

[Southern Star]

Actually Mottseng, the US is expected to be the world's largest oil producer by 2015, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia (let alone Venezuela):

U.S. to Be Top Oil Producer by 2015 on Shale, IEA Says - Bloomberg

Yes, they are still a net importer - but they have a substantial strategic reserve (that is being kept should another oil crisis arise) and that could be freed up for export, if necessary, for up to two years. I can't pull it up online, but there was a report on the same in the Business section of the Toronto Globe & Mail on March 5th.

Brad

[goboatingnow]

What we have is a little military adventure. Putin will annexe Crimea by way of an already announced " election "

Ukraine will submit to it as the price of breaking free from Russia for good

The EU is not in any way dependant on Russian hydrocarbons. It's the wealthiest ecomonic block in the world. It can buy its oil and gas anywhere. It's Russia that needs EU trade without it the country is virtually bankrupt.


A trade war with the EU just damages Russia. It will not come to that. Putin is not a fool

Comparisons with Hitler are obnoxious.

Reading some far right press in the US ( Fox News) you'd think there are people that want the Cold War why does the US always need a " foe"

This is a regional squabble.

Move along nothing to see but a few singing soldiers

Dave







Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[tropicalescape]

Originally Posted by IdoraKeeper

I am not aware of any reason why Russia would lose their warm water port....no body has advocated such a thing. The necessary military spending to deter further aggressions will damage the world economy. We are back to the cold war. It will be a very cold winter in Europe next year unless drastic measures are taken to prevent shortages of natural gas. We have no choice but to spend the money for the necessary deterrence. Likely there will also need to be a demonstration of military resolve in some other area, not Russia. This is gonna suck.

Yes they have been told to "get out" and very recently...

[DoubleWhisky]

Somehow I can tell the usual "Welcome to the CF Helix".
To meet You was not a pleasure at all....

[evm1024]

A little background history might be in order....

Try the Holodomor.

Ukraine Famine | United Human Rights Council

My father in-law had parents who survived the Holodomor. He served in the Soviet army, lived all over the CCCP and has children who are Ukrainian but speak Russian. (My wife's Ukrainian gets laughed at)

He does not have kind words for Putin.

[rakedfront1]

Do you guys ever wonder how long is gonna take us, human beings to realize we are all on the same team and we need to stop fighting?....ukraine crisis, sirian crisis, libia, irack, 2nd WW....etc etc...its just makes me sick......now I know why I enjoy sailing so much.....

.....sometimes I hope for a alien invasion to kick our asses so bad, we end up seeing arabs and jews s@#$% scared,hugging each other to death.....

[noelex 77]

This thread is closed.