How Many "Blue Water Cruisers" are There

[carstenb]

The numbers quoted below come from Jimmy Cornell. Feel free to draw you own conclusions.



There is a saying in Denmark – “The last fool has not yet been born”, meaning there will always be someone who will try something, like blue water cruising.
Vinni and I have been sailing around through diverse areas of the world for the past 8 years or so and met many cruiser from many different countries. Some, we have met several times and are lucky enough to call our friends. Some, unfortunately, we only met once and then we sailed in different directions.
A question we have discussed with them often and one that we have been asked many times is; How many of you (blue water cruisers) are there really?
A damned good question and one that we haven’t had the faintest idea of how to answer. First, you need to define “blue water cruiser”. After that, you can begin to ponder.
There are many definitions of “blue water cruiser” but let’s start with the Danish Ocean Cruiser Association’s. A “blue water cruiser” is one who has sailed at least 1000 nautical miles without sighting land. Many other cruising associations use the same or similar definitions, so we can start with that one (even though many will disagree). The Danish Ocean Cruisers Association has about 7000 members. Some are working towards going cruising, some are cruising (Vinni and me) and some have been out there and remain members because they like to amongst people who has the same goals or experiences.
The numbers above are reflected in almost all other cruising associations.
Ok, so how many of us (some say idiots) are out there?
The answer is not given but there are some numbers we can use to extrapolate from and arrive at an (im)perfect guesstimate.
Let’s start with Europe. Many Europeans sail off on what we call the “little Atlantic loop”, meaning starting in the Canaries, crossing the Atlantic, sailing around in the Caribbean then back across the Atlantic to Europe. Usually this takes a year, although some spend an extra season in the Caribbean making it two or even more years. Virtually all the boats doing this leave from Las Palmas harbor. There are a few that leave from other islands and certainly a few that don’t stop at the Canaries, but these are few and far between. We can discount them.
In 2022 there were exactly 1256 boats that checked out from Las Palmas, leaving for a foreign harbor. Approximately 75% (940 boats) were going west. So, just about 1000 boats heading for the New World. How many stayed there? How many sailed onwards?
We also have that number since virtually the boats coming from the New World come through Horta in the Azores. In 2022, 1102 boats checked in there from foreign ports. So the numbers seem to fit well. We do have to remember that some of the boats arriving in Horta are American/Canadian boats coming to Europe to sail in the Med etc.
So there are something like 1000 European boats sailing around in the Caribbean in any given season, on top of that are American/Canadian boats that also sail down for Caribbean sailing.
So far, so good. How many of those have the courage or ambition to continue out into the Pacific? The Panama Canal keeps exact count as do the Chileans (Cape Horn) and the Canadians (Northwest Passage)
In 2022, 6 boats made the Northwest Passage, 3 in each direction. 77 boats rounded Cape Horn, 57 west to east, 20 east to west. 806 boats transited the Canal, 602 east to west and 204 west to east.
We do know that about 1/3 of the boats transiting east to west were American/Canadian boats that turned northwards after exiting the canal, leaving 400 or so heading either west over the Pacific or south to go round the horn.
In 2022, 404 boats checked into French Polynesia. Some of these would be American/Canadian boats that came down the west coast then turned to starboard and made their way across. The rest came through the canal.
All well and good, but how many made the “little Pacific Loop”? Vinni and I did. According to Customs and Border Protection in Hawaii, 20 foreign boats checked into the US there in 2022. Some of those were Canadian, on their way home from sailing in Polynesia. 20 boats is not many and Vinni and I can attest to the low number. We have met damned few that have done it.
57 boats rounded Cape Horn west to east. What happened to the rest? Some ended up being sold on New Zealand or Australia. Others on Fiji or Tahiti. Some finish their circumnavigation by having the boat shipped or going around Cape Hope - unfortunately, we don’t have exact numbers for this.
But the above doesn’t answer the question, “How many cruisers stay on the water for many years?” Vinni and I are nowhere near the ones that have been out here the longest – 8 years is just beginning compared to some we have met. Rolf and Danielle – 22 years. Lynn and David – 14 years. Jim and Ann – probably hold the record – 41 years. They are on their 3rd boat and now only sail coastal, but then Jim is 82 years old. Based on the above and our own experience, a guesstimate is perhaps a couple of hundred boats are sailing around out here as multiyear cruisers? Maybe a couple of hundred is high, the true number is probably less.
So, back to the question; Has the last fool been born yet?
Well, if you like living in a closet that shakes, yaws and rolls and enjoy spending your time as a contortionist to get into places to repair a myriad of things and a life where everything and I mean everything is completely dependent on wind and weather – then the last fool has yet to be born. I am sure there will be others that will follow us and find this lifestyle wonderful (Vinni and I love it).
Onward to a couple of final numbers. Our boat, Capri is 40 feet long. When we left Denmark, a 40-foot boat was one of the bigger ones. As we sailed further and further from Denmark, we noticed the boats got bigger and bigger. In 2022, the average length of boat leaving Las Palmas was 42.5 feet. The average length of boat transiting the Panama Canal was 49.6 feet.
So we are amongst the smallest. By the way, 17% of the Panama Canal boats were catamarans.
Apparently, we aren’t that many out here. While Vinni and I feel that there seem to more cruisers about, the numbers actually show a decline since 2010. The Baby Boom generation has almost passed by. I’m from 1952, the beginning of the baby boom generation and Vinni is from 1959, the end of the baby boom generation. Anyone from this generation that isn’t already out here, probably won’t be coming. The following generation is smaller. Perhaps the advent of Starlink will encourage more to sail far – the jury is still out on that.
Or perhaps there will just be less and less floating vagabonds and therefore more room in the anchorages

[Ryban]

I'm not sure how many are out there world-cruising at any one time, but I suspect the number is increasing, not decreasing. For one, I think the advent of sailing youtube channels has popularized the lifestyle for a new generation. It's honestly how I found out that you could just go sail the world, and you don't have to be wealthy to do it (though I'm sure it helps).

That said, I think GenX, and my generation, Millenials, are not as financially secured as the Boomer generation was. A lot of us don't own homes well into our 30s, which in some ways maybe makes the idea of alternative lifestyles more appealing. A home may be a good long-term financial decision, but it also often anchors you in one spot for a while.

The flip side of that is that we also probably won't have as much financial security in our retirement (on average), and maybe voyaging out on a large comfortable sailboat once we reach retirement is out of the question. Thus, maybe we'll see more younger folks cruising in their working years, on affordable cruising sailboats.

In terms of boat size, I cruised on a 27-foot boat, and was nearly always the smallest boat in an anchorage, with only a few exceptions. Our current boat is 32-feet, and we also plan to do some blue water cruising aboard soon. Maybe with a younger shoe-string generation picking up the lines, we'll start to see that average boat length come back down.

[Mike OReilly]

Cornell's latest census of "bluewater cruisers" did indicate that the numbers were down. But he also suggested the numbers seemed to be up in more local areas. His explanation was that more people are sticking closer to home, and/or limiting their cruising to local or regional areas.

This could explain the observations that there appears to be more people out cruising these days, while also having fewer people sailing "1000 nautical miles without sighting land."

I expect the numbers of people enjoying the cruising lifestyle to decline in the coming years. As the Baby Boomers sail off into the sunset, there just isn't the same affluence, and more importantly, not the same security, for the younger generations.

[donradcliffe]

I do think that there has been a decline. Covid and Red Sea Piracy certainly cut the numbers down for a while. While there may be more catamarans out cruising, I saw anchorage videos in French Polynesia last year which were 90% monos. Probably has something to do with the "boat per buck".

I agree with Ryban that the disposable income for the middle class has dropped dramatically in the last generation. For my generation, it was "now that I have a house, let's buy a boat".

[thomm225]

It appears that sailing of any type is decreasing these days.

We have had numerous sailmaking/repairing shops close in the last few years.

We only have one consignment sailboat parts shop left anywhere nearby.

West Marine has consolidated to one store in the general area whereas just a few years ago there more.

Beach cat sailing/racing is almost nonexistent, but some of that is due to limited beach access when the waterfront property prices went up.

[rslifkin]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Cornell's latest census of "bluewater cruisers" did indicate that the numbers were down. But he also suggested the numbers seemed to be up in more local areas. His explanation was that more people are sticking closer to home, and/or limiting their cruising to local or regional areas.

This could explain the observations that there appears to be more people out cruising these days, while also having fewer people sailing "1000 nautical miles without sighting land."

I expect the numbers of people enjoying the cruising lifestyle to decline in the coming years. As the Baby Boomers sail off into the sunset, there just isn't the same affluence, and more importantly, not the same security, for the younger generations.

That would make sense to go along with Ryban's comments. Those of us that are younger and still working can't necessarily manage cruising full time and going anywhere and everywhere, but can still find the time to cruise within more limited areas and for shorter chunks of time.

[mvweebles]

Wealth accumulation accelerates when people are in there mid 40s through late 50s and beyond. I'm one of the younger Boomers (1961) and can certainly remember when there was plenty of talk about how my parents generation had it made and my generation will never be able to buy a house, retire, etc. I guess I've finally grown up and people long for the days I lived through and saved (and yes, for a bit lucky along the way).

I have about ten passages of +1000 nms nonstop but they were all coastal deliveries (Long Beach to Acapulco - 1500nms, Ensenada to Victoria - 1000nms Panama to Ft Lauderdale -1500nms, etc). In the last 4 months, my wife and I have trundled down the Pacific Coast from San Diego to where we are right now in Huatulco. About 2000 nms. Longest passage we've done is about 300 nms at one shot. Maybe we're just cruisers but not blue water but that's okay.

Two days ago, a French flagged sailboat "Breskell" came in. Older boat with a seasoned captain. Turned out he came direct from Coos Bay OR, about 2500-3000 nms, but never more than a couple hundred miles from shore so not s blue water cruiser. How do rate them? BTW - in 2019 they completed the Northwest Passage. Never out of site of land (or ice bergs i suppose). One of the most difficult passages on the planet but not blue water.

All I can tell you is it's pretty tough to get a slip in many marinas and the anchorages along the Pacific Coast have plenty of boats. So there are a LOT of people out there going a LOT of places off the beaten track. But stick an arbitrary definition like 1000 nms out of site of land, and you exclude a LOT of people who I'd consider cruisers.

Honestly, I think forums like CF give sailors a bad rap by trying to establish categories. Power bad, sail good. Cross ocean = true cruiser; anything less is not yet esteemed I've met dozens and dozens of people - mostly sailors as we've meanders down the Pacific Coast in our trawler. Sailors on forums seem to care about such things as categories. Sailors in anchorages don't care a bit. Maybe the ones who crossed an ocean care but everyone else just wants to know who has ice and a decent inventory of spares?

[Ryban]

Originally Posted by mvweebles

Wealth accumulation accelerates when people are in there mid 40s through late 50s and beyond. I'm one of the younger Boomers (1961) and can certainly remember when there was plenty of talk about how my parents generation had it made and my generation will never be able to buy a house, retire, etc. I guess I've finally grown up and people long for the days I lived through and saved (and yes, for a bit lucky along the way).

While it's true that wealth accumulation accelerates in middle age, it's also true that at 30, Boomers had considerably more wealth already accumulated than Millenial's at 30. As a share of national wealth, Boomers had 20% at 35, and Millineals, ~4%.

Home ownership is also down a good 10-20% compared to boomers at the same age, and a lot of wealth is tied up in home ownership either directly, or by reduced cost of living, and more money that is free to invest elsewhere.

[mvweebles]

Originally Posted by Ryban

While it's true that wealth accumulation accelerates in middle age, it's also true that at 30, Boomers had considerably more wealth already accumulated than Millenial's at 30. As a share of national wealth, Boomers had 20% at 35, and Millineals, ~4%.

Home ownership is also down a good 10-20% compared to boomers at the same age, and a lot of wealth is tied up in home ownership either directly, or by reduced cost of living, and more money that is free to invest elsewhere.

What's a median cohort age? How much of this is due to Boomers being, by far, the largest demographic?

Here's an article that drills down a bit.

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2019/02/14/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations-2/

Scroll down and you'll see income compared for boomers, Gen x, millennial. Millennials are top of heap for same education. (Screenshot attached).

Bottom line is it's really hard to compare across decades. But chances are, millennials will do just fine in time. Pretty sure every generation thought their parents had it better. Boomers are our cruising right now. Millennials are mostly working. As they are, boomers will age-out and the next crop will enter. Their cruising habits may look different, but they will do something.

[JPA Cate]

Two days ago, a French flagged sailboat "Breskell" came in. Older boat with a seasoned captain. Turned out he came direct from Coos Bay OR, about 2500-3000 nms, but never more than a couple hundred miles from shore so not s blue water cruiser.

Just my notion on this here, but I think, of course "Breskell" is a blue water cruiser. He either came from somewhere in France, across the Atlantic, through the canal and north to Oregon, or Via Cape Horn, or he'd come east around. Certainly that would be a blue water cruiser.

And, just fwiw, imo, in staying mostly ~200 n. mi. offshore, that is well out of sight of land, Oregon to Central America, about 3,000 ocean miles---that's not an inconsiderable cruise, all at sea....lovely.

With regard to land based people's thoughts relative to being as long term cruisers and Jim and I are, around here, I heard we're known as "those crazy Americans". I keep trying to tell folks it isn't for everyone, and it is true, we're scarce, too. And likely to be even more so as we age.

After we got married, I sold my house, and that became our cruising kitty. We did not have property ashore as a cushion. Young people today are having a hard time getting into the housing market, and it is that that makes me think the numbers of cruisers will continue to diminish. You have to have enough kitty to keep the boat up.

Ann

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Ryban

While it's true that wealth accumulation accelerates in middle age, it's also true that at 30, Boomers had considerably more wealth already accumulated than Millenial's at 30. As a share of national wealth, Boomers had 20% at 35, and Millineals, ~4%.

Home ownership is also down a good 10-20% compared to boomers at the same age, and a lot of wealth is tied up in home ownership either directly, or by reduced cost of living, and more money that is free to invest elsewhere.

Thanks for this Ryban. There's a mountain of data to show this reality. It's a simple fact that the generations after the Baby Boom are comparatively less wealthy, and have simply had it harder. Basic things like homes, rent, education, food, healthcare (if you're in the USA) are all much more expensive.

But even more insidious is the change in financial security most younger people now face. Gone are the days of secure employment and guaranteed benefits pensions that most Baby Boomers enjoyed (and yes... I said "most". I'm sure 'you' are the exception). Today most younger generation folks have far more precarious employment opportunities. And if they're lucky enough to have a group pension, it will be a defined contribution form, with no guarantee of what they might get at the end.

I guess the one bright light (although somewhat morbid) is that the Boomers have to die eventually, and unless they blow it all, will be passing down massive amounts of wealth to their younger generations.

[rslifkin]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Thanks for this Ryban. There's a mountain of data to show this reality. It's a simple fact that the generations after the Baby Boom are comparatively less wealthy, and have simply had it harder. Basic things like homes, rent, education, food, healthcare (if you're in the USA) are all much more expensive.

But even more insidious is the change in financial security most younger people now face. Gone are the days of secure employment and guaranteed benefits pensions that most Baby Boomers enjoyed (and yes... I said "most". I'm sure 'you' are the exception). Today most younger generation folks have far more precarious employment opportunities. And if they're lucky enough to have a group pension, it will be a defined contribution form, with no guarantee of what they might get at the end.

I guess the one bright light (although somewhat morbid) is that the Boomers have to die eventually, and unless they blow it all, will be passing down massive amounts of wealth to their younger generations.

As one of the millenials of the forum, I like this analysis. And that last point is a big one. I don't know yet if we'll be worse off in the long run than our parents were, but even if we're not, it will on average have taken longer to get to the same point in life.

[mikereed100]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

=

I expect the numbers of people enjoying the cruising lifestyle to decline in the coming years. As the Baby Boomers sail off into the sunset, there just isn't the same affluence, and more importantly, not the same security, for the younger generations.

I suspect that this is true to some extent, but I also suspect that it is more complicated than this.
Back in the '80s, when I was living on my boat in the anchorage in Santa Barbara, every year there was a migration of cruisers who passed through on their way south to Mexico or FP. These were invariably 20 somethings sailing small, inexpensive, uncomplicated boats, more often than not home built. I believe that on the West Coast at that time there were zoning laws in many cities that required everyone to have either a plywood trimaran or ferro cement monohull under construction in their back yard. The well funded would be sailing Westsail 32s that they completed themselves from a bare hull. It seemed that most would cruise for a few years on a shoestring then settle down to careers and family. These boomers were not wealthy or even financially secure, they just had a burning desire to sail the world and nothing was going to stop them.

The demographics have changed dramatically in the decades since. Now the typical cruisers are retirees on 45' + boats with price tags in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. One still sees young people out cruising, but they are in the minority and even they tend to be on large, expensive boats. (The French seem to be an exception to this and many young couples, some with infants and toddlers, on modest boats are floating around FP, working as they go).

I'm not sure why this is, but I am not convinced that it is entirely due to lack of finances. Maybe those who come of age watching YouTube vloggers on million dollar yachts feel that they need a floating palace in order to enjoy the cruising lifestyle. Maybe fewer people are inflicted with wanderlust in the digital age. Maybe younger people just have more sense nowadays.

I see this trend not only in the cruising community, but in my local area of the the California Channel Islands as well. In the 70's and 80's and 90's the marinas and anchorages were packed with young people on boats that were mostly less than 30'. Now the anchorages are uncluttered and the boats one does see are over 40' with older crew. There are still good, cheap boats to be had with many of the smaller slips in the marinas remaining empty. It just seems that the demand has dried up.

[Mike OReilly]

I'm sure it is more complicated than I portrayed Mike. There are dozens of other factors, such as changing societal norms, and even concepts of what it means to live a free life.

But I think even your message brings into focus the changing financial realities of younger generations. And like I say, it's not just that those following the Baby Boom are accumulating wealth slower. It's that their financial security is far more precarious, due in large part to the way employment works (or doesn't work, since fewer people are now "employed").

[Ryban]

If true, I think it's too bad that people feel they need a big expensive boat to go cruising. It can be done very affordably if you're willing to forego the luxuries a larger boat brings to the table. I was able to cruise for 3 years on a 27-foot boat with 70K to my name, including the purchase of the vessel and refit -- and if I had been smarter about certain unnecessary expenses, it could have stretched another year or two. Granted -- 70K in savings is still a luxury for a lot of young people, especially if they're carrying debt.

I'll never regret taking breaks in my career to go cruising while I'm young. There's nothing guranteeing I'll live that long or that the world will be as pleasant to cruise by then.