Huge waves batter distant US Army station in South Pacific, forcing evacuations

[GordMay]

Long before the Marshall Islands [Republic of the Marshall Islands, or RMI] get submerged beneath the rising seas; their coastlines will become eroded, the freshwater supplies will get tainted with salt [1]; saltwater intrusion will kill all the fruit trees; flooding events will become so frequent that, people have no choice but to try to move away [2].

* 1. Fresh groundwater on the atolls consist of a lens of [lighter] freshwater, floating on top of [heavier] marine waters, in the subsurface island rock strata [Ghyben-Herzberg lens]. Rainwater percolates down, through the islands' surface, to collect in the lens. The consistency and permeability of the rock strata maintains the integrity of the lens, slowing the mixing of the freshwater lens, with surrounding marine water. The thickness and size of the lens, for a particular island, depends on many factors, but tends to be larger for larger and rounder islands, subjected to higher rainfall.

* 2. Today, around 60,000 Marshallese live on 182 kilometers (km²) of land, spanning an oceanic territory of 200,000 km².
About half of the total population lives in the capital city, Delap-Uliga-Djarrit [D-U-D], on Majuro Atoll. The second most populous island is Ebeye, on Kwajalein Atoll, which has about 11,000 people, living on 80 acres, making it the most densely populated island in the world.
Nearly a third of the Marshallese population, or about 22,000 people, currently live in the U.S.; with about 12,000+, in Northwest Arkansas.*
The government of the Marshall Islands has an official consular office, in Springdale, Arkansas.

Sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding also have ramifications for the U.S. military, whose multibillion-dollar Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site is located in the RMI on the island of Roi-Namur in the Kwajalein Atoll. Worried about the long-term future of the military installation, DOD funded a study looking at the interaction between different scenarios of sea-level rise, wave-driven inundations, and the response of the freshwater lens to encroaching saltwater.

A team of researchers from USGS, NOAA, the University of Hawai’i, and a Dutch research institute, discovered that wave-driven floods would inundate the island annually after sea levels had risen only 16 inches, a frequency of saltwater contamination that would be disastrous for infrastructure, but would also not allow the fragile freshwater lens to recover between inundations.

The researchers concluded that saltwater damage to infrastructure and freshwater resources will make many atolls uninhabitable beginning in the 2030s to 2060s.

Satellite data indicate the sea level has risen, near the Marshall Islands, by about 0.3 inches [7 mm] per year since 1993. This is larger than the global average, of 0.11–0.14 inches [2.8–3.6 mm] per year.


Some interesting reading, on the subject:

“Current and future climate of the Marshall Islands” ~ Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
➥ https://www.pacificclimatechangescie...s-11pp_WEB.pdf

“Adapting to rising sea levels in Marshall Islands” ~ Building Resilience in Pacific Atoll Islands Initiative
➥ https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...f46f35ef34a04d

“Rethinking Reef Island Stability in Relation to Anthropogenic Sea Level Rise” ~ by Haunani H. Kane & Charles H. Fletcher
➥ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2020EF001525

[GordMay]

Vocanic explosions Sometimes cause global Cooling. Whether or not a specific eruption leads to cooling, depends on its size, location. and even chemical composition.

The emissions, from the 1883 Krakatoa eruption, likely caused a drop in average temperatures [& sea level], across the globe, for several years.

Aerosols emitted into the atmosphere, by the Krakatoa blast, led global air temperatures to drop by as much as 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius).
According to a 2006 article in the journal Nature [1], the volcano caused oceans to cool for as much as a century, offsetting the effect of human activity on ocean temperatures.
If the Krakatoa volcano had not erupted, the authors argue, our sea levels might be much higher than they are today.

[1] “Krakatoa's signature persists in the ocean” ~ by P. J. Gleckler et al

This huge eruption slowed sea-level rise and ocean warming well into the following century.

➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/439675a

Notwithstanding, Roi-Namur had a bad day, last Saturday ... with many more, difficult days, to follow.

[Island Time O25]

Where and when did I say that volcanic eruptions cause GW? I just stated that the consequences are often more dire for us humans. Straw argument much?

My other point would be that we get too anthropocentric about this whole climate business. When the asteroid did away with the dinosaurs, already experiencing significant decline according to the latest scientific research, it was a negative for them but a positive for mamals and by extention for us future humans. So one species tradgedy is other species truimph. But the life on Earth goes on. The way things are going latety I don't view a future extinction of human race as a bad thing for the planet and her other inhabitants.

[Don C L]

Yes, long term, the planet will survive, but I'd like my kids and grand kids to, not just survive but, have a decent planet to live on! I really don't care how things are a million years from now.

[Ryban]

Originally Posted by Don C L

Yes, long term, the planet will survive, but I'd like my kids and grand kids to, not just survive but, have a decent planet to live on! I really don't care how things are a million years from now.

Yup. Humans will be a geological blip for aliens visiting the planet in 100 million years, and life with almost certainly be thriving still (though it will look very different). But, while we're here, my personal opinion is that we should try to be good stewards, because we've inherited something pretty incredible, and the only such place we know about in the universe (so far).

[Iron E]

One of the most ridiculous discussions/arguments on this forum is GW.

I mean, of almost all of the sectors, wouldn't you believe cruisers to be some of the most conservation-oriented people on earth?

It's like a waiter at a vegan restaurant espousing the benefits of granola to the customers.

[RaymondR]

The laws of thermodynamics dictate that whilst the global warming theory may or may not be valid however global cooling is inevitable. One has only to look at the planet Mars, which contains the largest extinct volcano in the solar system and not one active volcano to confirm this fact.

A deep low pressure system passing over some of these low lying islands coincident with spring tides is likely to cause flooding. Coupled with the high winds and consequent seas often associated with low pressure systems, serious erosion is highly likely to occur.

[boatpoker]

Where I sit right now has been the bottom of an ocean, a desert, tropical jungle and has been under a mile of ice. This place is not sustainable

[ulul]

A possible contributing factor to the Roi-Namur flooding, but not addressed in what I have read so far, is the tendency of modern development to fill in the gaps between the motus in these lagoons. Pull up a pre-invasion army map of Roi-Namur from 1944….you will see almost two distinct islands….which were separated by a “sluiceway” opening that was open to storms from the ocean side….allowing reef water levels better to equalize between the ocean and the lagoon. I suspect the development/fill in of the gap apparent in Google Map pic of Roi-Namur may have helped back up some of the water that hit the NE side of the island.

From my own experience, I was anchored off the town at the E end of Majuro lagoon in late November, 1979. Large N-NE & NW Pacific swells, [some of which we had sailed over benignly for 2 days before our arrival] began piling on the E (town) end of the lagoon, sweeping across the island end entirely and relaunching a number of wrecks on the lagoon side of the town beach into the lagoon where they drifted and eventually sank. All power etc was knocked out for a couple weeks and the Red Cross and Army brought in relief supplies. Other sides of the lagoon were unaffected. Of note…….all the gaps between the several motus on the east end of the island had been filled in or constricted with development….the waves and higher tides and low pressure (a nascent typhoon low went on to the west toward the Marianas) meant the water there backed up and the waves came in further and gave the town a good flooding. Other areas of that huge lagoon, were less developed and unaffected. The height of these atolls is similar…around 2 meters high at best with fringing coral reefs. Again, you can see the development on Google Maps

Finally, 50 years ago my wife and I were Peace Corps volunteers on an huge atoll (Namonuito) for two years west of the Marshalls on Ulul (Onoun) Island in NW Chuuk State of FSM now. You can find it on Google Maps….on May Day, 1971 a fast moving Category 5 typhoon named “Amy” went smack over the island and made it look like Tarawa a few days after the Marines finished with it. The island was 12 feet high. We survived in our 4 foot deep trench (at 5 feet you hit the “fresh” water lens water table) with coconut logs over the top along with 26 residents and the statute of the Virgin Mary from the church. Amazingly, the island seemed to part the great seas and there was little inundation in the taro patches in the S end and only a bit at the very low N end of the island. No one was seriously injured. My belief is the sea levels had room to equalize around the island. The last great typhoon on the island in memory was in the German times around the beginning of the 1900’s. There have been none since with the violence of Amy to date.

Without getting into a GW debate, I can say that reports from my contacts in the Western Islands off Chuuk State of FSM report increasing salinity effects in the taro patches of the small atoll islands and more challenges for the coconuts and breadfruit. But I have also read studies that suggest that as sea level rises, protecting fringing reefs can grow and also help build up the atoll islands with eroding coral sand……I would love to sail back in another hundred years to see how things are looking.
Dave Williams

[OldManMirage]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

The Marshall Islands are in the North Pacific. So is Capitola, which also suffered recent wave damage and evacuations. It wasn't the first time, and it won't be the last. Note the date on the picture.

I think what caught my eye the most in the picture is the "Parasols for Rent" on the far right of the building.

Fascinating.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

The Marshall Islands are in the North Pacific. So is Capitola, which also suffered recent wave damage and evacuations. It wasn't the first time, and it won't be the last. Note the date on the picture.

Capitola, Ca is located at: 36.9752° N, 121.9533° W
Roi-Namur, RMI is located at: 9.3966° N, 167.4716° E
A difference of 27.5786 degrees of latitude, something like ± 1,800 miles .

More recently, than the 1931 event [pictured], in early January 2023, a bomb cyclone, off the coast of California, brought flooding and destruction to the Santa Cruz County coastline. Capitola was hit the hardest, with the Capitola wharf being decimated, and coastal businesses being forced to close for months.
On Dec 28, 2023, the Capitola Villages were flooded again. Businesses and homes near the coast were once again inundated with water.

[stevensuf]

These islands might be a great investment when the ice returns and the oceans drop 600ft, they will grow.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Don C L

Yes, long term, the planet will survive, but I'd like my kids and grand kids to, not just survive but, have a decent planet to live on! I really don't care how things are a million years from now.

I'm more concerned with the kind of children we are leaving for the planet than what kind of a planet we are leaving for the kids.
The seas will rise the seas will fall. We shall sail it all.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

The Marshall Islands are in the North Pacific. So is Capitola, which also suffered recent wave damage and evacuations. It wasn't the first time, and it won't be the last. Note the date on the picture.

Barely north. From 7°N to 10° N so a more appropriate would say equatorial Pacific.
To me north Pacific would be the gulf of alaska

[Capt Gill]

Originally Posted by Don C L

Yes, long term, the planet will survive, but I'd like my kids and grand kids to, not just survive but, have a decent planet to live on! I really don't care how things are a million years from now.

Thank you!