Watch out for Patricia

[zeehag]

there is manzanillO
and there is LA manzanillA.
landfall was La manzanillA
not manzanillO, the city with airport and shipping port.
big difference.
manzanillO is SOUTH of me by 20 linear miles.
LA manzanillA is about 14 linearr miles NORTH of me, where storm hit. difference.
LA manzanillA with web cam was WIPED OUT. gone . se fue. bye bye. Manzanillwas un scathed.
roads have become impassable between barra and ManzanillO nd cihuatlan was made into a river, with strong flow.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by smj

Sustained risk? Could you explain?


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By that I mean a combination of the number of days that a Hurricane level wind has acted upon the sea....and whether the topography will either enhance and sustain the possible damages (risk), or help to dissipate it.

You have 3 basic risks:
1 Wind Effect.... risk to weaken and/or destroy structures ..... More risk with a flat terrain versus a hilly landfall that creates opposing vortexes.

2. Storm Surge..... Seas building up over a number of days and funneling into a large shallow bay would created a more sustained risk over more than one tidal phase. (Not the case with Patricia)

3. Accumulated Rainfall.... More risk in slow moving TRS with mountain slopes and mudslides.....this will i believe cause the most damage with Patricia

A lot of people are comparing Patricia to Yolanda/Haiyan....

This track showing the number of days at TRS strength before landfall and its track into shallow Bay, made the storm surge much higher and sustained, compared to Patricia.

If Patricia had tracked further north towards PG and into Sea of Cortez.... It would have had a great deal more sustainable damage over time

http://www.nytimes.com/live/hurrican...yphoon-haiyan/

[Pelagic]

Attached track comparing Yolanda

[zeehag]

there were 4 ft seas in lagoon and they took away the diesel dock.oops....havent yet been to colimilla to see results.
but our fuel dock se fue.....

[ryon]

Originally Posted by zeehag

. . . LA manzanillA with web cam was WIPED OUT. gone . se fue. bye bye. . .

¡Qué lástima! That is a beautiful "undiscovered" stretch of Mexico. I hope the people are okay!

[travellerw]

Zeehag.. So happy to see you posting and to hear your boat is OK... MADE MY WEEK, MONTH, YEAR!

Please let us know how we can help the others who weren't as fortunate!

[rgscpat]

The difference if some fortyish miles between La Manzanilla and Manzanillo (with an oh) was probably about the difference between Cat 4 and 3 winds and tropical storm winds. Plus or minus twenty miles could easily be a matter of life or death. That's another reason why the comparison with an oversized tornado makes a certain sort of sense in certain ways.

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[rgscpat]

Durned phone... of some fortyish, and Manzanillo with an oh!

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[smj]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

By that I mean a combination of the number of days that a Hurricane level wind has acted upon the sea....and whether the topography will either enhance and sustain the possible damages (risk), or help to dissipate it.

You have 3 basic risks:
1 Wind Effect.... risk to weaken and/or destroy structures ..... More risk with a flat terrain versus a hilly landfall that creates opposing vortexes.

2. Storm Surge..... Seas building up over a number of days and funneling into a large shallow bay would created a more sustained risk over more than one tidal phase. (Not the case with Patricia)

3. Accumulated Rainfall.... More risk in slow moving TRS with mountain slopes and mudslides.....this will i believe cause the most damage with Patricia

A lot of people are comparing Patricia to Yolanda/Haiyan....

This track showing the number of days at TRS strength before landfall and its track into shallow Bay, made the storm surge much higher and sustained, compared to Patricia.

If Patricia had tracked further north towards PG and into Sea of Cortez.... It would have had a great deal more sustainable damage over time

http://www.nytimes.com/live/hurrican...yphoon-haiyan/

Thank you.


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[rgscpat]

Or if Patricia's track had gone into Banderas Bay...

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[Sea Dreaming]

Originally Posted by Cherise

This is why I don't spend much time on forums, too many direct or passive aggressive responses that I bet if were in person would be much leas "drama".
How else are you to encourage real, young to middle aged actual sailors, cruises, liveaboards???
Someone else might agree and say - yeah the US media making out Mexico to be worse than it is. Sorry, I guess Im just a Bozo!

Anyhow, I was just giving a shout to Zee/Karen.

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Ya, the Internet anonymity encourages some folk to dispense with kindness and diplomacy. I have even found that there are a few who don't actually read what was written and plow into atrack mode anyway. More shame them. Keep posting Cerise. Ignore the pundits. Most of us a pretty nice!

[GordMay]

Images for "Cuixmala Patricia"
➥ https://www.google.ca/search?q=Cuixm...w=1366&bih=609

[Pelagic]

Time line formation
http://gcaptain.us11.list-manage1.co...5&e=0a4d88d4b5

[Roy M]

Emerald Rose is looking for news on Meja located in marina at barra. we know Eric and Terry rode it out at the hotel but haven't heard from them since storm.

[alansmith]

Goat, u r right on that one. Ice age must have been something.