Earl Heading for Northern Leewards

[cagney]

...EARL HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

Unfortunately Earl is heading closer to the St Martin - Virgin area than earlier forecasted. It is also getting stronger.

[Garrielli]

I will be taking photos of Honeymoon, Elephant and Flamingo bays today, during the storm and when it's over. If anyone wants a specific shot of an area close to Water Island let me know.

[osirissail]

As of this morning Earl is still very a disorganized Tropical Storm and just might not make it to Hurricane levels - but still 35+ knot winds and 3+ meter seas can be very dangerous to those not prepared. Having been through more than a few TS's they are nothing to ignore. Primary danger comes from other boats around you that have ignored the warnings and end up dragging or breaking loose and colliding with your boat.

[cagney]

Originally Posted by osirissail

As of this morning Earl is still very a disorganized Tropical Storm and just might not make it to Hurricane levels - but still 35+ knot winds and 3+ meter seas can be very dangerous to those not prepared. Having been through more than a few TS's they are nothing to ignore. Primary danger comes from other boats around you that have ignored the warnings and end up dragging or breaking loose and colliding with your boat.

I don't know where you get the 35+kts from?
As of advisory #16 from 0900Z the max sustained wind is 65mph ~ 56 kts

From the fcst discussion at 0500 AST

THE SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING SOON AS DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING
AWAY...AND EARL SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS
...AND REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
ICON CONSENSUS.

[ad_astra]

I'm a little nervous.... according to noaa's forecast, Earl is predicted to develop into a major hurricane that may threaten the atlantic coasts of NC/VA:

Tropical Storm EARL

(note: link may break after a day or two)

Would have left more docklines on the boat yesterday if I'd seen that graphic....

[Healer52]

Hurricane Earl:

TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands also has some useful tools to calculate CPA, etc. Earl should be within 30 miles or so of Sint Maarten tomorrow (Monday) at 1330 local.

Good luck, everyone.

[Hud3]

Here's what the models forecasted as of 8 am EDT this morning. The thing I don't particularly like is that Earl's actual track is due west along my latitude, 17.1 N. The NHS seems to think he'll turn north, but he had better be darn quick about it!

Time to get out the hurricane shutters!

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Hud3

... The NHS seems to think he'll turn north, but he had better be darn quick about it!
Time to get out the hurricane shutters!

Good luck, all!

All hurricanes eventually move toward higher latitudes, where there is colder air, less moisture, and greater wind shears; causing the storm to weaken and die.

In the Northern Hemisphere hurricanes usually begin by traveling from east to west. As the storms approach the coast of North America or Asia, however, they shift to a more northerly direction. Most hurricanes turn gradually northwest, north, and finally northeast.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the storms may travel westward at first and then turn southwest, south, and finally southeast.

[Blue Stocking]

but he had better be darn quick about it!

Time to get out the hurricane shutters! [/QUOTE]

Not too soon Hud. If so, he comes up my side of the Stream, and we are just ducking Danielle

[osirissail]

Originally Posted by cagney

I don't know where you get the 35+kts from?
As of advisory #16 from 0900Z the max sustained wind is 65mph ~ 56 kts
From the fcst discussion at 0500 AST

- - That little "+" symbol means 35 knots or more - how much more is subject to debate. TS's start at 34kts and work up to 63kts.
- - Don't confuse FORECASTs with reality. They are two very different animals and rarely are weather forecasts correct. Currently the winds in Antiqua (V.C. airport) are 7 kts from the WNW. Antigua is currently 100 miles away from the storm and winds are forecast to peak at 42 mph tonight then fall off Monday to 35mph and 24 mph Monday night. Somebody in Jolly harbor or Falmouth or English Harbors is concerned with what the conditions will be there rather than 100 or so miles to the north.
- - Active cruisers are concerned with the reality of where they are, not the doom and gloom forecasts in popular favor by TV or other forecasters. Everybody likes to hear "end of the world" forecasts but when it comes to you and your boat's safety, reality is what counts.
- - Additionally NOAA forecasts are notoriously inaccurate and constantly changing every few hours. As a cruiser you would be well advised to learn how to read pressure charts and patterns and do your own forecasting. There is a wealth of weather information available on the internet and if you spend some time leaning weather history you will have a much better and less stressful time while cruising.
- - On-line there is Unisys Weather: Hurricane/Tropical Data
which give current and historical information of all storms since 1851 to date.
- - Also Steve Dashew's Mariner's Weather Handbook is probably one of the best resources for learning weather systems for cruising worldwide.
- - Remember out here in the big oceans you are responsible for your own survival not that NOAA guy sitting in a concrete building with no windows. Learn now how to use the sources of weather information available and stop relying only on "big brother government" to tell you whether you will live or die.

[Hud3]

Thunder and lightning getting closer here on Nevis. Winds are up and down, very gusty, maybe 25 kts max, but we're expecting higher later tonight. We put our hurricane screens up this afternoon, mostly because this guy looks like a squally buggar. I don't think we're going to see sustained storm force winds here, but it's possible.

A correspondent on stormcarib.com reported a 51 kt squall this afternoon on Antigua at Jolly Harbour.

[Rubikoop]

Boat is tucked in and the house is shuttered. In other words, there is nothing left to do except look at sailing forums and enjoy pre-storm cocktails

[sailingaway221]

Sitting in St. Martin right now....25 knots maybe, but looks like its gonna increase all the way through the night....The site I look at is storm pulse and the FNMOC site. It is about to be a cat 2... Omar was a cat 3 when it went by a couple of years ago and St. Martin saw max wind speed of 66 knots in a gust. Looks like we will be closer to Earl than Omar so expecting similar and possibly stronger wind speed.

Storm pulse gives a pretty good prediction and will show you the clouds

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/public/

Click on :

Global and regional weather prediction charts

Then click on the region you want... for me its COAMPS and then either click loop or all if you want to scroll through them one at a time. Looks windy!

[Palarran]

Sailingaway, where are you at on SXM? My boats in Oyster Pond which works well if the hurricane goes to the west of the island or stays to the north. It doesn't work well if the storm comes up the east side. It should be an interesting day tomorrow. Good Luck.

[sailingaway221]

I'm in Polypat right by the French Bridget. Starting to get interesting here... 35 or 45 knots now.... looks a little scary on the radar!

Good luck over there too!