U.S. to close..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

. . . Societies where people trust each other to do the right thing are not trapped in a prisoner's dilemma of bad choices. But you can't create this kind of society overnight. And when you can't operate on trust, what is left? I fear force is all that remains. It's the best, worst option at that point.

Ineed. I think the key is to remember that freedom and responsibility are two sides of the same coin. When people have a high degree of responsibility and a high degree of social consciousness, they can be given a high degree of autonomy and individual freedom. It's a virtuous cycle.

Whereas in our society a significant faction believes that "freedom" -- is just the freedom to say "f you" to anyone, and do what you want, no matter how harmful it is to others. I think we've had people on here even saying so much.

So, yes. I'm afraid you are right. I've said all along that the same combination of measures is not going to be right for all countries.

Still, look at the measures used in Minnesota -- a place ethnically more or less identical to the Nordic countries, and culturally similar. See: https://mn.gov/covid19/for-minnesota...-safe-plan.jsp

Is this all that stupid? The "Dial Back Minnesota" program is a set of pretty strict measures, but short of full lockdown. Mandatory masking and work from home if you can. Seems pretty good to me. I'm not sure what they were doing in the interval between the first lockdown and now. They seem to have, at least now, most of the measures we have here, plus some rather stricter ones.

But the death rate in Minnesota today is 10x higher than the peak death rate in Sweden during the second wave, and 50x higher than Finland. Why? I really don't know.

[darylat8750]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It seems paradoxical to us North Americans, but individual freedom and acting collectively and taking care of each other, are not necessarily a contradiction. The Nordic way is to be extremely careful with individual rights -- remember that in at least two Nordic countries lockdown by decree is not even possible constitutionally. And freedom of movement has been preserved very broadly -- girlfriends and boyfriends for example allowed to cross closed borders to see their sweethearts without any documentary proof of a relationship. Quarantine everywhere voluntary. None of the measures enforced with the force of criminal law.

And yet people obey the voluntary quarantines to a higher degree than those in other countries who fear punishment; recommendations about working from home and avoiding unnecessary contact an internal travel results in changes of behavior similar to those in countries which had lockdown.

So why indeed do we have to infringe individual rights, in order to achieve collective goals? Well, we don't. The difference is culture. And trust. People CHOOSE to do this and that, to protect each other. They don't need to be forced or punished. Maybe forcing and punishing is not the right way to go about achieving these goals? Maybe that is what drives the wedge between the collective and the individual?

Hear! Hear!
Generally speaking I can make better decisions for myself and my family than any governor or mayor or public health official. They have problems with compliance because they issue poorly thought out rules like you can go into store A and buy this but not that and you can't go into store B and buy anything.

[Capn Jimbo]

With all due respect one of the side effects of isolation - especially of sailors - is that the same small crew takes over selected Covid threads drowning the readers with their long winded, repetitive, often political blather. The reality vs politics show goes on, no one convinces anyone, the temperature rises and...

The thread is closed by the overwhelmed moderators.

As a retired advanced practice nurse, public health, I've attempted to bring a bit of selective reality but to little avail. To be fair there a goodly number of thoughtful posters who "get" it and I applaud their refusal to allow the usual suspects to bulldose them with their trolling spew.

The sad consequence is that the lack of unity only insures the explosive growth of Covid. The next 3 to 4 months will shut them up, but the cost - especially in long term, "longhauler", lasting damage to 30-50% of infected people - that cost will be immense and lasting.

We are in for it (US).

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Interesting article in today's NYT, concerning the "Swiss cheese model of pandemic defense":

Attachment 228197

"The metaphor is easy enough to grasp: Multiple layers of protection, imagined as cheese slices, block the spread of the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. No one layer is perfect; each has holes, and when the holes align, the risk of infection increases. But several layers combined — social distancing, plus masks, plus hand-washing, plus testing and tracing, plus ventilation, plus government messaging — significantly reduce the overall risk"

..............................

Makes a lot of sense to me, too.


The problem is: That was ALL we had back in February, and is STILL the only thing we have.


And what do we get?


Denial
Delusion
Dummies

Stupidity
Stochastic terrorism


Iowa, N & S Dakota and even (gasp!) Alberta are beginning to wise up.


Too little, too late.


What a shame.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

Makes a lot of sense to me, too.

The problem is: That was ALL we had back in February, and is STILL the only thing we have.

And what do we get?

Denial
Delusion
Dummies

Stupidity
Stochastic terrorism......

What a shame.

Friedrich Nietzsche: "And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music."

Is a different way of saying "those who understood the maths from the outset were thought to be insane by those who could not see the maths for themselves." ~12 months later an infographic helps conceptualize terms like "layers of defense" while also giving visual representation of proportionality.

I suggest that this is biological/evolutionary and will always be with us, shame or not. For that matter, shame wiring varies among individuals, sort of tied to the ego defense associated with each side's perspective.

[Jason Flare]

Vaccine.

A timely vaccine is much less important than a safe and effective vaccine.

If this vaccine has side effects it will give the anti-vaxers enough ammunition to set vaccines back 75 years.

Be careful what you wish for in a timely vaccine.

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

Vaccine.

A timely vaccine is much less important than a safe and effective vaccine.

If this vaccine has side effects it will give the anti-vaxers enough ammunition to set vaccines back 75 years.

Be careful what you wish for in a timely vaccine.

There are always side effects. I would imagine many will have sore arms and fevers for a few days. I can live with that. What we have to consider is, what are the risks we face if we don't vaccinate? If we use the 1% Covid fatality rate people are throwing around here, and the vaccine has a 0.001% chance of causing harm, which would you prefer? I'll take my chances with the vaccine so I can get back to normal and travel again. Besides, I fear my local pub will go out of business if we don't come together on the vaccine thing...

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

There are always side effects. I would imagine many will have sore arms and fevers for a few days. I can live with that. What we have to consider is, what are the risks we face if we don't vaccinate? If we use the 1% Covid fatality rate people are throwing around here, and the vaccine has a 0.001% chance of causing harm, which would you prefer? I'll take my chances with the vaccine so I can get back to normal and travel again. Besides, I fear my local pub will go out of business if we don't come together on the vaccine thing...

I should have said, “Serious side effects.”

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

I should have said, “Serious side effects.”

None so far and many, many 10s of thousands have taken the vaccine in trials around the world. Every country has to approve any vaccine with their national "FDA" and they all seem to be approving vaccines for general use. Brazil is finalizing approvals for the Chinese vaccine made by Sinovac, which will be given to the population of the state of São Paulo in early 2021. I can't wait...

I find it hard to believe that the many regulatory agencies around the world responsible for approving vaccines are all incompetent or complicit in some conspiracy to harm their populations. Again, do you want to take your chances with the virus (which is infecting more than 1 million Americans a week- won't take long to get to you) or with an approved vaccine, tested and proven effective?

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

None so far and many, many 10s of thousands have taken the vaccine in trials around the world. Every country has to approve any vaccine with their national "FDA" and they all seem to be approving vaccines for general use. Brazil is finalizing approvals for the Chinese vaccine made by Sinovac, which will be given to the population of the state of São Paulo in early 2021. I can't wait...

I find it hard to believe that the many regulatory agencies around the world responsible for approving vaccines are all incompetent or complicit in some conspiracy to harm their populations. Again, do you want to take your chances with the virus (which is infecting more than 1 million Americans a week- won't take long to get to you) or with an approved vaccine, tested and proven effective?

There was a serious side effect early on. Something to do with spinal something and a trial had to be halted. I don’t know how all that turned out. From what I’ve seen the actual stats on the side effects or lack thereof haven’t been made public.

Personally I would take my chances with the virus largely because I think the vaccine producers are in a race against herd immunity and as you pointed out with a million Americans a week getting the virus it’s a tight race.

My reason to not engage in risky behavior and purposely get the virus is I do not want to transmit it to others once I’m contagious and not aware I have it.

I’m less worried about this particular natural virus than I am a vaccine . And yes, I am old enough to be in a higher risk group.

At any rate, most people here, Mike O’Reilly and TrentePieds to name two I can recall offhand, have said that they would prefer others take the vaccine first, and I agree with them.

So, for me I’ll see who wins the race. Will I get covid before I take a vaccine I trust?

We’ll see.

All of this is to repeat, If there are serious side effect it will set trust in vaccines back 75 years.

[generein]

"Swiss cheese model of pandemic defense"
This is an oft-cited model of risk mitigation in Airlines and professional aviation. Original paper written by a man named Reason.
Since we are talking about not infallible humans and systems that were designed by humans, having zero errors is impossible. Using the layered approach to minimizing errors and capturing and correcting the ones committed has gone a long way towards reducing aviation, medical and maritime accidents.
It is a great model to help assess and address risk vectors in all parts of your life. Applies well to COVID. Works when teaching teenagers to drive too!

[Lake-Effect]

A very recent (... today) overview of the vaccine development effort. Truly remarkable. Imagine if this level of cooperation and effort was put into every global issue.

[Thumbs Up]

You would think that CBS news would proof read their articles.

Another topic for those who think they are following the science is the stock market. You are not following the science. You are following press releases. Every press release affects stock sales. The media knows this. Big pharma knows this. They play public perception like a piano. There is talk of possible reproductive harm. Fighting vaccine hesitancy is the #1 concern. When the Polio shot rolled out, a defective version was given to 200,000 people and caused 40,000 additional cases. Decades later, the same lab (by then bought by Bayer) knowingly sold its AIDS tainted hemophilia medicine overseas. Polio numbers didn't plummet until they changed the diagnoses criteria. What was then diagnosed as polio is now called Guillain-Barre.
The SV40 virus remained in the shots for years and are implicated in many of todays cancers. These are well documented facts (that they don't mention on the news). When they do release the full data from the studies, their stocks (as well as public confidence) will take a hit.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Thumbs Up

...The SV40 virus remained in the shots for years and are implicated in many of todays cancers. These are well documented facts (that they don't mention on the news). When they do release the full data from the studies, their stocks (as well as public confidence) will take a hit.

From 1955 to 1963, an estimated 10-30% of polio vaccines administered in the US were contaminated with simian virus 40 (SV40). Merck researchers, under Maurice Hilleman’s direction, detected a simian virus in the monkey kidney cells, used to grow poliovirus, for Merck’s polio vaccine. Hilleman’s finding was responsible for a shift, away from using monkeys, for tissue culture. Researchers would largely use human cells, for the next wave of vaccine development.
The simian virus SV40 has not been present, in any vaccine, since 1963.

People with cancers, who were born after 1963, when SV40 was no longer a contaminant of the polio vaccine, were found to have evidence for SV40 in their cancerous cells.
Most epidemiologic studies do not show an increased risk of cancers, in those who received polio vaccine between 1955 and 1963.
Taken together, these findings do not support the hypothesis that SV40 virus contained, in polio vaccines administered before 1963, caused cancers.

However, some researchers do suggest that there may have been an increased incidence of certain cancers, among those exposed to contaminated polio vaccine in the U.S.

[goboatingnow]

Many countries had largely voluntary lockdowns. The vast majority of Ireland Covid responses were “ advisory “ with no police enforcement powers. Mask wearing in shops and public transport was made mandatory . Business closures were not advisory. But the movement controls were largely voluntary yet most people applied them.