U.S. to close..

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

No, you can't say "[i]f measures aren't producing reductions, it's because the measures are insufficient, or because people aren't following them". Only if the only factor involved is measures. In fact the phenomenon is much more complex. Why are the measures sufficient in Finland but grossly inadequate in Lithuania? The exact same measures?
..............

Are we sure they are exactly the same?
Are we sure there isn't other differences occurring that we haven't investigated yet?
Are we sure that everyone (ie the Finns and the Lithuanians) is following all the measures all the time?

It seems to me the coronavirus is a very opportunist fellow and takes advantage of seemingly minor 'loopholes' in our defence of it. It only takes one 'mystery' case to become a community case to become s cluster which becomes an outbreak and so on.

It seems to me it is a great example of the "Butterfly flapping it's wing in the Amazon causing a drought in Australia".

It is known that humans transmit the virus. It is known the virus travels to wherever humans travel (with one exception, see below).

It is known that preventing free travel limits the virus (plenty of examples exist).

There is no question that quarantine controls work at preventing the spread of the virus.

If international quarantine borders work, then so do internal ones.

So when the virus explodes somewhere, one of the controls has broken down or was never taken in the first place.

The only continent that is still CV19 free is Antarctica. A friend is travelling there soon and they have some SERIOUS controls in place to keep it that way.

I not suggesting any of the above are fixes but knowing what went wrong is the first step to working out what to do next.

EDIT: I note LE made a similar argument while I was slow typing - oh well. This post wasn't intended to intentionally duplicate his argument

[SalingSue]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

When you move to a desert island, and live all by yourself, then you can do as you choose. Until then, you live in a society where your actions affect others.

So you have a choice. Move, or learn to live collectively with others.

No thanks

Thankfully the US isn’t a democracy aka mob rule, it’s a constitutional republic.

Again, if the cotton masks or those plastic face shield things and standing 6’ apart actually works, it really shouldn’t matter what I do, no one is forcing you to slow dance with me dude

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

No thanks

Thankfully the US isn’t a democracy aka mob rule, it’s a constitutional republic.

Again, if the cotton masks or those plastic face shield things and standing 6’ apart actually works, it really shouldn’t matter what I do, no one is forcing you to slow dance with me dude

Resilient societies can always manage a small number of free riders. It just makes the job slightly harder for the rest. But rest assured, others will pick up your slack.

BTW, no country is a pure democracy, as in having every decision being made based on the collective will of every individual. Every so-called democratic nation uses some form of representative democracy.

A constitutional republic is merely a form of government. It can be put in place democratically, or through other autocratic means. The two aren't necessarily connected.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

If COVID-19 is still hitting those vulnerable places hard, do you think that the precautions or adjustments implemented to date have been sufficient? (That's discussing actual Covid policy, innit? Yet it was just another springboard for your usual personal jabs.)

Sufficient? By what measure? By the 20+ employees of my father's facility that have tested positive? Or the zero infections of patients? By "leadership," do you mean that the authorities should have mandated that all employees at all facilities nationwide should have been required to lock down with their patients, thus mitigating if not eliminating the chance that the virus could have been brought from outside? What about food deliveries, medical supplies, prescription drugs, trips to the local hospitals, dental work, and yes, funeral homes and morgues. Do the families and young children of all these nurses and caregivers move in too? Do you even understand how elder care facilities work or what you're even asking, or is this just another attempt to score a political point over the lack of US "leadership."

My friend DH has informed us of his concerns about the harmful impact of lockdowns. Over and over and over and over and over. But he hasn't been as forthcoming about what he thinks could work instead. He's stated his opinion that we are, in economic terms, overvaluing the lives lost to COVID-19. Without more insight into his thinking, it seems that he's gently suggesting that, all things considered, we should use a light hand, be prepared to let the virus circulate to some extent, and to be more sanguine about the casualties.

Friend or foe, I'd suggest you simply stop trying to characterize other peoples' posts, and instead let them speak for themselves. Not only would you likely avoid the jabs, but it would save a lot of bandwidth having to correct you and restate posts.

This isn't a shocking position, it's very pragmatic and to some extent realistic. It might even turn out to be the right position, if economies are as fragile as DH fears.

The "right" position? I don't recall Dockhead framing it in such simplistic terms. I also don't recall the discussion being contingent on the "fragility" of different economies, but rather pointing out the severity of short and long-term consequences to most or all economies. I see DH just summarized some major points for you again. More time reading and less time posting?

In the meantime, COVID-19 isn't some far-off, won't-affect-us-so-we-don't-GAF, partisan CF plaything like AGW; it's a current, happening-now, realtime-consequences issue. I remain very interested in the suggestions from people like DH... if he would only provide them

So after his pages & pages of well-supported data, analysis, comment, and clearly worded posts over many Covid-related threads, what exactly are you looking for DH to suggest?

[Exile]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

No thanks

Thankfully the US isn’t a democracy aka mob rule, it’s a constitutional republic.

Again, if the cotton masks or those plastic face shield things and standing 6’ apart actually works, it really shouldn’t matter what I do, no one is forcing you to slow dance with me dude

I suppose you could just put the mask on to make other people more comfortable. Or maybe just an act of civility and forget the collective stuff. Whether they should be or not, a lot of people are pretty freaked out and getting exhausted with this so-called 2nd wave. I can always tell by the bare shelves where they normally keep the toilet paper.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

............
That's an unrealistic "if". Not anywhere in the world, are businesses being supported in full, and in most places they are not supported at all. There simply isn't enough money.



Maybe because I'm actually in business, I have an idea about how this really works. It takes years (in most cases) to create, what can be destroyed in a few months. Sure, eventually businesses get started up. But when people are out of work, they don't spend money. When people don't spend money, there is no demand to fulfill with a startup business. You print a bunch of money and cause inflation, interest rates spike up and businesses can't borrow money for capital goods. It's completely interconnected and interdependent, and knock the legs out of one part of it, and the whole thing falls apart. It's a vicious cycle, which is how economic downturns happen, and why it often takes years to recover from them.
...........

If it was that simple, the answer seems obvious. If the only downside (of printing money) was interest spikes preventing the borrowing of the money then one could limit (by law) the interest rate or let the market place decide. Surely borrowers will flock to guys offering a lower interest rate. If competition drives downs prices, then it must also drive down the price of money - doesn't it.

Or heck, print it and give it away.

Maybe the economy is more impacted by the fear on an unchecked virus - whether the fear is founded or not.

The economy is taking a hit from the virus regardless of any measures enacted or not. The only question is how to reduce the hit and to do that, we need to know where the hit is coming from.

Nothing like a crisis to expose the cracks in a system and it seems to me, the cracks of the pre-covid economy is now being exposed.

I do hope the economy doesn't crumble (collapse) but if it does, I don't think the virus will be the culprit, rather it will be the final straw etc. Blaming the virus will be counterproductive (IMO).

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

When you move to a desert island, and live all by yourself, then you can do as you choose. Until then, you live in a society where your actions affect others.

So you have a choice. Move, or learn to live collectively with others.

.

Actually, you live in a society where those making the rules don’t even follow the rules.

So, take responsibility for yourself and protect yourself.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

.

Actually, you live in a society where those making the rules don’t even follow the rules.

So, take responsibility for yourself and protect yourself.

Are you suggesting leaders can be hypocrites? Say it isn't so .

BTW, I hope you express the same view towards, oh I dunno, your police department, the fire brigade, the services who maintain your roads and highways, the institutions that protect your food and drug supplies, and yes, the military.

Let me know how this "take responsibility for yourself and protect yourself" plan works out with all these, and so much more.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Are you suggesting leaders can be hypocrites? Say it isn't so .

BTW, I hope you express the same view towards, oh I dunno, your police department, the fire brigade, the services who maintain your roads and highways, the institutions that protect your food and drug supplies, and yes, the military.

Let me know how this "take responsibility for yourself and protect yourself" plan works out with all these, and so much more.

To extent this theme...

Plenty of arsonists found in the fire brigade, plenty of villains in the police, plenty of law breakers among the lawyers... so let's keelhaul all of these groups and then cut them adrift - life will grand then eh. Hang on, DH is a lawyer but he's OK so he can still crew on the good ship CF.

Anyone who doesn't like what Captain Mike orders can jump ship also.

The captain will ensure discipline aboard and crew will respect him for it. When Captain Mike orders 'all hands on deck lads, get aloft and reef smartly' no one will ask why or argue the toss; even at 3am!

And should some single hander hove into sight pressing his right of way yelling "starboard", Captain Mike will take his stern 'cause it's that is what is required under the colregs.

As the storms wax and wane, life abroad CF is fine.

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Are you suggesting leaders can be hypocrites? Say it isn't so .

BTW, I hope you express the same view towards, oh I dunno, your police department, the fire brigade, the services who maintain your roads and highways, the institutions that protect your food and drug supplies, and yes, the military.

Let me know how this "take responsibility for yourself and protect yourself" plan works out with all these, and so much more.

I’ve already supplied links to the fact that the police have no duty to protect me and I’m skeptical of the others.

Yes I do go offshore and no, I have never carried an Epirb.

In what Utopia does someone taking responsibility for themselves mean that the fire dept might not put out their fire, or the highway dept might fail to plow the road in front of their house or the military fail to protect the nation.

What Utopia have you created where a person taking responsibility for themselves is so threatening to you that you call on all these others to fail to do the job they’re paid to do.

[Singularity]

A cure is never worse than the disease--pure nonsense word games. Now, if a philosopher wants to administer penicillin to a pneumonia patient using a chainsaw and dust the lungs with penicillin powder, then indeed the Western philosopher would be proven "true" and get his ego dopamine hit or whatever. But for all non-philosophers, a treatment that causes more harm than good is some type of poison, not a cure. Of course, if penicillin IS the cure, and it's administered by a such a philosopher, then the philosopher is the poison. So logic and ordinary use of words is important to understand what the problem is here.

As has been repeated inadequately here, epidemiologists didn't model for so many philosophy-prone people with some innate need to question basic science, stand on soapboxes...hands in the air waving about...'we need to think about this more.' Such behavior is superficially reasonable, but there's a reason on the battlefield that deserters are shot on sight on site (with Covid enter free-rider expansion, snowball consequences of decreased consumer confidence to the economy, etc, etc, etc). We have information NOW from countries who have applied the cure correctly. Nevertheless, the Western philosophers persist, not recognizing that they've met the enemy, and it is themselves.

This is what kills people with Covid. Where a person's immune system is no less than a community of different actors, each with a job to do, do no more, do no less....when everyone in the immune system (and all transcription factors) does their appropriate part only, then the pt disproportionately will survive (unless for example particularly hampered by immune modulators by rare-ish diseases). Perhaps this holistic understanding sounds to communistic to accept, such that communal idiocy is more favorable to save face, but that's just how this stuff works.

Anyone listening to a Western philosopher on a soap box cite superficialities as though such represents deep understanding of the subject matter has what they have coming to them. Unfortunately we're so clustered nowadays that such sub-cultures/cults are not geographically isolatable (while those with wealth are disproportionately isolated from the consequences of their behavior on others in the first place). At some point it must be recognized, as stated upthread, that there's nothing to be learned from the second kick of a mule. To folks who don't remember the first kick, or are some combination of egosadomasochist and obstinate...liking to get kicked...it's a real problem for the rest of us.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

...What Utopia have you created where a person taking responsibility for themselves is so threatening to you that you call on all these others to fail to do the job they’re paid to do.

If I may suggest, consider reading a little bit about the free rider problem. It's an ancient conundrum with a modern name (and manner in which it's curtailed in discourse) can be off-putting. It's a problem that costs most of us a high percent of our salary every year. No matter what, everyone is someone else's free rider. Just that some of us are a lot more free rider than others, though no one innately believes this....particularly the uber-rich class (who as you well cited routinely don't play by the rules)

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Wotname

And should some single hander hove into sight pressing his right of way yelling "starboard", Captain Mike will take his stern 'cause it's that is what is required under the colregs.

No such thing as "right of way" under the Colregs, Wottie! There, I said it. But only because someone else would have said it if I hadn't.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

This virus has been around since late 2019

You may be wrong on this one, have a look at:


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...OVfTLGwvhMHR_c


So read into that what you want, but for me it puts the whole question of the original origin (country) of the virus into question, as well as how long has the virus REALLY been around, which will make a big difference to all that data floating around.

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Singularity

If I may suggest, consider reading a little bit about the free rider problem. It's an ancient conundrum with a modern name (and manner in which it's curtailed in discourse) can be off-putting. It's a problem that costs most of us a high percent of our salary every year. No matter what, everyone is someone else's free rider. Just that some of us are a lot more free rider than others, though no one innately believes this....particularly the uber-rich class (who as you well cited routinely don't play by the rules)

That’s good stuff.

I’ve always called them, “The Free Sh!t Army.”

No, I’m not even close to a free rider. I pay six figures in taxes and I go lightly on services like police and fire.

For instance, when someone dumped a large dump truck load of debris on my property I dug through it and found one scrap of paper identifying who may have dumped it. I also had a very grainy video of the truck.

I was pretty certain who dumped the debris and I called them, and explained that I wasn’t the kind of person who calls the police, and I’d like this property cleaned up. They cleaned it up.

For fire, I have a sprinkler system and the fire dept are well aware that statistically the system will put out a fire within five sprinkler heads of activating.

To;dr. I have increased the tax base of my town more than the average Joe and pay a crapload of taxes as a result.

I’m not a free rider by any stretch.