Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

As to the numbers in our region, the situation finally starts to show some positive trends:



UK is definitely coming down. Lithuania, with by far the worst outbreak in our region, and possibly Europe altogether, is way down now with daily infection rates of around 400, still high, but nearly 3x less than the peak of a few weeks ago. Sweden is way down and below 400 from over 700 a couple of weeks ago. Latvia and Estonia are not trending strongly down but not up either, somewhat over 400. Denmark has fallen below 200. Germany is stably around 200. Norway had looked like it might break out but is now firmly back below 100. Finland continues to miraculously dodge the second wave and is stably below 50. I'll be going to a new restaurant in Helsinki this evening.

As to deaths:



Deaths lag infections so we should start to see these come down. UK continues to be at a very high level of over 17 -- I bet the hospitals there in some counties are near the breaking point. But with infections down surely this will come down soon. Sweden is bad at 13, but should start coming down. Lithuania has fallen to about 12 from the highest death rate I ever saw, about 36, on 4 January, but perhaps that is artificial -- bunching up of unreported holiday deaths. Latvia and Germany are worrying at over 10. Don't know why Germany should have such a high death rate with such a moderate infection rate; perhaps lack of first wave in Germany left a lot of vulnerable people.

But altogether it looks like the second wave is winding down here.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

As to the numbers in our region, the situation finally starts to show some positive trends:

Attachment 230720

UK is definitely coming down. Lithuania, with by far the worst outbreak in our region, and possibly Europe altogether, is way down now with daily infection rates of around 400, still high, but nearly 3x less than the peak of a few weeks ago. Sweden is way down and below 400 from over 700 a couple of weeks ago. Latvia and Estonia are not trending strongly down but not up either, somewhat over 400. Denmark has fallen below 200. Germany is stably around 200. Norway had looked like it might break out but is now firmly back below 100. Finland continues to miraculously dodge the second wave and is stably below 50. I'll be going to a new restaurant in Helsinki this evening.

As to deaths:

Attachment 230721

Deaths lag infections so we should start to see these come down. UK continues to be at a very high level of over 17 -- I bet the hospitals there in some counties are near the breaking point. But with infections down surely this will come down soon. Sweden is bad at 13, but should start coming down. Lithuania has fallen to about 12 from the highest death rate I ever saw, about 36, on 4 January, but perhaps that is artificial -- bunching up of unreported holiday deaths. Latvia and Germany are worrying at over 10. Don't know why Germany should have such a high death rate with such a moderate infection rate; perhaps lack of first wave in Germany left a lot of vulnerable people.

But altogether it looks like the second wave is winding down here.

Such a relief!
It was looking very bleak just 3 weeks ago. It could have so easily been escalating still. It is the middle of winter and the time of year when the death rate for the elderly is highest (I think universally).

If we couple this with vaccination proceeding, the deaths will soon start to reduce dramatically.
46 million doses have been given so far worldwide:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Israel has managed to give the first dose to at least a quarter of its population.
In Europe, the UK in particular is rapidly getting through its most vulnerable elderly. Here are the figures:

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . If we couple this with vaccination proceeding, the deaths will soon start to reduce dramatically.

From your lips to God's ear -- as they say in Israel

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

46 million doses have been given so far worldwide. . .

Bully for the Brits, rolling out those vaccines at warp speed At least something good there.

[Seaworthy Lass]

PS In the UK the first dose may have been given to close to all those over 75. These total around 5.7 million and over 7 million doses have already be given, most of these being first doses.

This is such good news, not just for the vulnerable people already vaccinated, but also for the rest of the population at low risk that can start to breathe a sigh of relief that the crisis is likely to be over soon.

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Bully for the Brits, rolling out those vaccines at warp speed At least something good there.

Just about the only good thing I can think of about Brexit .

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

PS In the UK the first dose may have been given to close to all those over 75. These total around 5.7 million and over 7 million doses have already be given, most of these being first doses.

This is such good news, not just for the vulnerable people already vaccinated, but also for the rest of the population at low risk that can start to breathe a sigh of relief that the crisis is likely to be over soon.



Just about the only good thing I can think of about Brexit .

It had nothing to do with brexit of course

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

that the crisis is likely to be over soon.

I wouldn't get too carried away there just yet, i think there is still a long road to travel.



As far as Oz is concerned they are talking of keeping international borders closed for another year, which economically is a major blow for a country where 1 in 19 people are directly employed in tourism and brought in $152 Billion in 2019, add to this the loss of foreign students for Unis (another loss of $35 Billion) and the trickle down effect this will have is not good.


I hear everyone bleat on about how the economy is doing so well here, which is just government and MSM BS. It may be doing well for the Mining, Oil and Gas industries and other big corporations, but the every day Joe and small businesses are getting hammered.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

It had nothing to do with brexit of course

Of course it did. No longer part of the EU, the UK did not have to wait for the EU to approve a vaccine and to commence vaccination. The first vaccine in the UK was given on the 8th of December. This was not approved until the 21st in the EU and the first vaccination did not occur until the 27th.

The UK had nearly a 3 week head start due to Brexit.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Of course it did. No longer part of the EU, the UK did not have to wait for the EU to approve a vaccine and to commence vaccination. The first vaccine in the UK was given on the 8th of December. This was not approved until the 21st in the EU and the first vaccination did not occur until the 27th.

The UK had nearly a 3 week head start due to Brexit.

Nothing to do with brexit. The uk was still subject to all eu rules enacted pre 2016 ,( under the transition agreement ) it’s another Boris bent banana lie that brexit facilitated this

European drug approvals processes allow ANY EU country to grant emergency approval . This was always the case and any eu country could have done the same ( each country retains its medicines boards to this day )

Equally no EU country was forced to acquire the vaccine centrally , but most did.

The uk approved for emergency use the vaccine UNDER EXISTING EU law .

The tradegy of brexit is that uk citizenry have been fed lies and mistruths about the EU for 20 years and most have no clue about exactly how national and EU decision making occur

As I just said brexit had nothing to do with the uks timetable. Any eu country could have done the same ( in fact it was Germany’s threatening to do just that , that lit a fire under the EMA)

Note that on the contrary EU approvals were delayed by brexit not the other way around . The EMA was based in the uk and relied heavily on the local UK expertise ( and the uk is excellent in this area ) and it had to move at the end of 2020 to Amsterdam , and that caused delays and loss of corporate memory

So you see , just more uk misinformation from sections of the Tory party that have axes to grind , when the ERG et al proclaim on brexit /EU one should automatically smell BS.

QED

( the uk approved historically 97.5% of all EU decisions , not quite the picture painted in the uk by brexitiers )

Note as I mentioned before the EMA cannot give “ emergency “approval , that remains within national competencies , it can only provide full and conditional approval , that process takes longer as it’s more in depth. ( if would also take the uk longer too )

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by UFO

I wouldn't get too carried away there just yet, i think there is still a long road to travel.

As far as Oz is concerned they are talking of keeping international borders closed for another year, which economically is a major blow for a country where 1 in 19 people are directly employed in tourism and brought in $152 Billion in 2019, add to this the loss of foreign students for Unis (another loss of $35 Billion) and the trickle down effect this will have is not good.

I hear everyone bleat on about how the economy is doing so well here, which is just government and MSM BS. It may be doing well for the Mining, Oil and Gas industries and other big corporations, but the every day Joe and small businesses are getting hammered.

Yes, I am sorry I got carried away. I meant that in Europe and particularly the UK this crisis was nearly over.

Given the recent drop in detected numbers infected, plus the vaccination of a huge chunk of the elderly in the UK, plus immunity (even if partial) following infection, I think within about a month we should start to see a HUGE reduction in severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths here. The rest of Europe will follow.

This UK government statistics website that was updated today indicates that “Around one in eight people would have tested positive for antibodies in December 2020 in England.”

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...dup/2020-03-26

That is 12% of the population. Even if those previous infected no longer have antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, Memory T-cells will be present so at least partial protection is probably present in an even higher % of people.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Nothing to do with brexit. The uk was still subject to all eu rules enacted pre 2016 ,it’s another Boris bent banana lie that brexit facilitated this

European drug approvals processes allow ANY EU country to grant emergency approval . This was always the case and any eu country could have done the same

Equally no EU country was forced to acquire the vaccine centrally , but most did.

The uk approved for emergency use the vaccine UNDER EXISTING EU law .

The tradegy of brexit is that uk citizenry have been fed lies and mistruths about the EU for 20 years and most have no clue about exactly how national and EU decision making occur

As I just said brexit had nothing to do with the uks timetable. Any eu country could have done the same ( in fact it was Germany’s threatening to do just that , that lit a fire under the EMA)

Note that on the contrary EU approvals were delayed by brexit not the other way around . The EMA was based in the uk and relied heavily on the local UK expertise ( and the uk is excellent in this area ) and it had to move at the end of 2020 to Amsterdam , and that caUsed delays and loss of corporate memory

So you see , just more uk misinformation from sections of the Tory party that have axes to grind , when the ERG et al proclaim on brexit /EU one should automatically smell BS.

QED

( the uk approved historically 97.5% of all EU decisions , not quite the picture painted in the uk by brexitiers )

Thanks for the information. I didn’t know this.

I did at least say: “ Just about the only good thing I can think of about Brexit”.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

PS In the UK the first dose may have been given to close to all those over 75. These total around 5.7 million and over 7 million doses have already be given, most of these being first doses.

This is such good news, not just for the vulnerable people already vaccinated, but also for the rest of the population at low risk that can start to breathe a sigh of relief that the crisis is likely to be over soon.. . .

That's amazing. Great for the Brits. So the death rate should be dramatically reduced within a month I guess?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Of course it did. No longer part of the EU, the UK did not have to wait for the EU to approve a vaccine and to commence vaccination. The first vaccine in the UK was given on the 8th of December. This was not approved until the 21st in the EU and the first vaccination did not occur until the 27th.
The UK had nearly a 3 week head start due to Brexit.

BULL!
THE UK did authorize a vaccine earlier than the European Union - but it had nothing to do with Brexit.
The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), in the UK, first gave “temporary authorisation” to the Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca vaccines (but NOT Moderna’s), which the MHRA’s chief executive, June Raine, pointed out, that the agency had simply taken advantage of a provision that any country in Europe could use, to fast-track approval in a pandemic.
Under EU rules, vaccines must be authorised by the EMA, but EU countries can use an emergency procedure, that allows them to distribute a vaccine at home, for temporary use. This is what the UK did, and any EU country could have.
The UK’s MHRA chose to go for “temporary, emergency approval of specific batches of vaccine”. That’s different, from the “conditional marketing authorisation” the EU’s European Medicines Agency (EMA) chose.

“Vaccinating the UK: how the covid vaccine was approved, and other questions answered”
➥ https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4759


PS: Sorry, for being redundant.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

That's amazing. Great for the Brits. So the death rate should be dramatically reduced within a month I guess?

My prediction is that we should start to see a rapid decrease by then. We still currently have the problem that there was a recent explosion of infection in the UK due to the B117 variant, and although this is decreasing now, the effect will roll on for a few weeks.

I am betting that things will be looking much rosier by March/April. Even though we can’t relax and taking precautions will still be sensible, life should return much closer to normal in the UK by then.

Here’s hoping, anyway .

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by GordMay

BULL!
THE UK did authorize a vaccine earlier than the European Union - but it had nothing to do with Brexit.

Sorry, red faced here .

I had already admitted my error to Goboatingnow:

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Thanks for the information. I didn’t know this.

I did at least say: “ Just about the only good thing I can think of about Brexit”.

I should refrain from any comments such as this. As I said to Wottie earlier, I am not very politically savvy.

[goboatingnow]

Thanks for the information. I didn’t know this.

Sadly seaworthy , it’s an all too common situation amongst uk citizenry , here in Ireland we must have a referendum on any new European treaty , so we have had ones on nice , Maastricht , Lisbon , etc etc. Hence it all gets trashed out every few years . All over the country you see huge signs telling the citizenry that the EU funded this or that , or telling people the EUs role ( since we are net contributors since 1995 , there’s less funding signs )

But over the years talking to my many friends in the uk , it was shocking how mis informed they were or how they had accepted the Tory hardliners nonsense.

Sad really , brexit was a triumph of mis information and a cautionary tale of immense proportions.

The EU actually needs a huge propaganda department to be established to actively wade into social media disinformation campaigns to put the other side across. But it’s has backed away because of historical issues.