Covid vaccination status for CF members

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Worldwide, it's up to 14.5mil/day and accelerating. 559million doses so far.

Progress, but still a long way to go.

So far the vaccines have held up well against variants and they estimate new versions can be rolled out in a couple months if we hit a variant that resists the vaccine...so a bump in the road yes, but not a lost year.

So far, yes. Let's hope we don't see a new variant that evades vaccines. If we require a new vaccine, we will be back to January 2020, with the whole world to vaccinate again. I would imagine that we've only vaccinated a few percent of the world's population so far. Africa has barely started.

Yes, it is a world problem. In a pure altruistic sense, there should be no borders considered but no one ever thought it was going to be different. The rich countries paid for the bulk of the development and that came with the expectation they would be first in line. But it's not that bad...Current estimate is around 4 months until the US starts running short of new people to vaccinate, so figure by mid summer, some of our stock can shift to new countries and all the time production is ramping up.

I think a solution is to release the patents so countries can make vaccines under license, paying a fee to the drug companies. I think there is no time to lose.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Interesting. Haven't seen this one. Thanks.

This would be consistent with the results in Israel where they are much further into the vaccination program. They had a series of plateaus, even with a slight rise, but then it kept trending down.

Yes, lets hope Israel is the model and not the exception. As you say, we should start to see it in the USA very soon. The rest of the world will follow more slowly as we catch up with our vaccination numbers.

UK is another interesting test case.

They are only slightly ahead of the USA in terms of total shots but they have largely held off on the 2nd dose, so the percentage of the population with at least 1 dose is much higher (46% vs 29%). If as some of the preliminary reports suggest, 1 dose is good for 80% vs 2 at 90%, they may have the right answer in terms of the overall population while we are still limited by supply. They are showing a stronger reduction since the new years peak but they also appear to have hit a plateau in case numbers.

[Montanan]

The CDC is coordinating with many "real world" vaccine efficacy studies utilizing frontline healthcare workers as their study participants. These arrangements include COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness evaluations but also other vaccines as a number of the studies are comprehensive and predate COVID-19 emergence.

Real-World COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in Healthcare Workers
Illustration of a group of healthcare workers

A study funded and led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will evaluate how well COVID-19 vaccines prevent laboratory-confirmed, symptomatic COVID-19 in healthcare workers in the “real world,” outside of a clinical trial. The study, currently enrolling healthcare workers at 34 sites nationwide, is one of many projects analyzing the real-world protection afforded by COVID-19 vaccines.

CDC is leveraging four existing programs, each with multiple sites, to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among healthcare workers across 26 states:

Arctic Investigations Program (AIP) – two sites
https://www.cdc.gov/ncezid/dpei/aip/index.html

Emerging Infections Program (EIP) – 10 sites
10 state health departments working with academic partners to conduct active population-based surveillance and special studies for several emerging infectious diseases with special emphasis on infectious diseases related to the key EIP activities. https://www.cdc.gov/ncezid/dpei/eip/...P%20activities.

Preventing Emerging Infections through Vaccine Effectiveness Testing (Project PREVENT)external icon – 16 sites
https://medicine.uiowa.edu/content/p...revent-project
The Emerging Infections Program (EIP) is a collaboration between CDC and
Safety and Healthcare Epidemiology Prevention Research Development (SHEPheRD Program) – six sites
https://www.cdc.gov/hai/research/safehealthcare.html

Vaccine effectiveness studies allow researchers to assess how well vaccines protect people from illness in real-world conditions. The real-world effectiveness of vaccines may be affected if vaccination process requirements, such as vaccine storage and dosing intervals, are less strictly adhered to than they were in clinical trials. These real-world effectiveness studies may also enable researchers to evaluate vaccine effectiveness in groups not included in clinical trials, such as people with underlying medical conditions. Additionally, they can help inform COVID-19 vaccine policy decisions made by the U.S. Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Research
Real-World COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in Healthcare Workers
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...protocols.html

Before the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) determines whether to approve a vaccine or authorize a vaccine for emergency use, clinical trials are conducted to determine vaccine efficacy.

After FDA approves a vaccine or authorizes a vaccine for emergency use, it continues to be studied to determine how well it works under real-world conditions. CDC and other federal partners will be assessing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness under real-world conditions.

Such evaluations will help the CDC understand if vaccines are performing as expected outside the more controlled setting of a clinical trial. As vaccine uptake increases nationally, we will also try to understand how well the vaccines:

Perform in specific subpopulations
Reduce the risk of infection (including infection without symptoms)
Protect against milder COVID-19 illness
Prevent more serious outcomes, including hospitalization
Prevent spread of illness (e.g., whether people who have been vaccinated can still spread COVID-19 to others)
Provide long-term protection (i.e., assess duration of protection)
Protect against changes in the virus (new variants)
Protect against COVID-19 when the vaccine is administered using a single dose or when the second dose is delayed, if these dosing regimens occur under real-world conditions
Several factors can affect real-world vaccine effectiveness, including:

Population host factors (e.g., people not included in clinical trials who may respond differently to the vaccine)
Virus factors (e.g., variants)
Programmatic factors (e.g., adherence to dosing schedules or storage/handling of vaccines)
CDC will use several methods to study all of these factors, as they can all contribute different information about how a vaccine is working.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

I think a solution is to release the patents so countries can make vaccines under license, paying a fee to the drug companies. I think there is no time to lose.

A nice thought but this has been talked about but largely discarded for two reasons:
- First this technology goes beyond these specific vaccines. Once the cat is out of the bag, there is no recapturing it, so companies will be very hesitant to share it.
- Probably the bigger issue is the limits now are on the production side. If you can only obtain 1 million vials per day, doesn't matter if you can produce 2 million vials worth of vaccine...all up and down the supply chain, they are hitting these kinds of limits and they are hitting them on an international level. More producers fighting for the same million vials per day doesn't result in more doses. Of course, the supply chain is expanding at a rapid rate as evidenced by the rapid increases. Back in January, the USA was getting around 1mil/day...now up to 2.75mil/day and growing. You see the same thing in other countries.

Less talked about is what if a 3rd world company get ahold of the patent and does sloppy quality control in a rush to push out numbers. It's out of the developers hands but you can bet the media will refer to the brand name when they put up pictures of people dying after vaccinations. Once that happens, those companies go from financial super stars to bankrupt

If there is an international issue to solve, it's the shenanigans the EU is playing with Astra Zeneca. It appears to be a purely political tantrum because they didn't jump on the buying bandwagon early and want to throw their weight around (along with getting a few swipes at the UK over brexit). This is likely slowing production as everyone dances around trying not to get caught up in the tantrum.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

If there is an international issue to solve, it's the shenanigans the EU is playing with Astra Zeneca. It appears to be a purely political tantrum because they didn't jump on the buying bandwagon early and want to throw their weight around (along with getting a few swipes at the UK over brexit). This is likely slowing production as everyone dances around trying not to get caught up in the tantrum.

The only thing the EU vs AstraZeneka/UK has managed to produce is a statement that never again will the company act altruisticly and provide vaccines at cost $3-5/shot as opposed to Phizer and Moderna at $32 —$38/shot.
Politics over people..

[GreenWave]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

I think a solution is to release the patents so countries can make vaccines under license, paying a fee to the drug companies. I think there is no time to lose.

This is always available - licensing - so nothing needs to be released. Just needs to be negotiated.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

I think a solution is to release the patents so countries can make vaccines under license, paying a fee to the drug companies. I think there is no time to lose.

According to this: https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2...tents-opioids/ the Biden administration is considering suspending IP rights for covid vaccines.


In my humble opinion, this is a terrible idea. If pharma companies can expect their IP rights to be confiscated or nationalized in the next crisis, why would they spend billions of shareholder money developing the next set of IP rights?


Furthermore, I think the pharma companies have bent over backwards to be fair. Moderna has stated they will not enforce IP rights for the duration of the pandemic; see: https://investors.modernatx.com/news...uring-covid-19



Useful background: https://www.ipwatchdog.com/2020/11/1...dge/id=127224/.

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

According to this: https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2...tents-opioids/ the Biden administration is considering suspending IP rights for covid vaccines.


In my humble opinion, this is a terrible idea. If pharma companies can expect their IP rights to be confiscated or nationalized in the next crisis, why would they spend billions of shareholder money developing the next set of IP rights?


Furthermore, I think the pharma companies have bent over backwards to be fair. Moderna has stated they will not enforce IP rights for the duration of the pandemic; see: https://investors.modernatx.com/news...uring-covid-19



Useful background: https://www.ipwatchdog.com/2020/11/1...dge/id=127224/.

Yes, the pharma companies should be able to recover their investments and see a reasonable profit. Let's see how this unfolds. Brazil has two new vaccines about to go into trial, as do many others countries. Hopefully we'll see a glut of vaccines before the end of the year. I just think we can't wait that long. Farming out production to other companies around the world would ramp up production quickly.

[GreenWave]

I agree that susepnding IP rights (as the Biden administration is considering) would be horrible. It will definitely de-motivate Pharma companies to invest and create new drugs.


Also, some of the vaccines already approved are being produced by companeis other than the developer- Merck helping with J & J production is one example. I think Sanofi may be involved in another. This is happening and will continue to happen without the need for any government involvement.

[valhalla360]

Don't forget, they pharma companies have forged partnerships and other deals to maximize output. By letting them forge the deals, they are able to protect what the other company gets control of and how they can use it.

For example, if there are proprietary processes, that aren't production limited, the original company can keep those and farm out the parts that are limited.

If you have the govt blunder in and suspend all IP rights, the companies lose control and aspects that don't need sharing may wind up shared. As dockhead mentioned, it undercuts trust the next time, they deal with the govt.

[Montanan]

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Pfizer will be speeding up its coronavirus vaccine deliveries to the country, with 5 million more doses in June than previously anticipated. The country expects to receive 1 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech inoculation per week through the end of May. This number will increase to 2 million per week through the end of June.

[Montanan]

National Institute of Healthy Study - a real world trial to see if persons vaccinated with the Moderna vaccine have reduced potential for infecting others.

"To document whether vaccinated people are less contagious, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases launched a study [https://preventcovidu.org/ ] in March to follow 12,000 college students from 21 universities, and their close contacts. Half of the students will be vaccinated immediately, with the other half vaccinated four months later. All participants will provide detailed information about their close contacts, including roommates, classmates and teammates, and swab their noses daily to test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Researchers will follow up anyone with a positive test by testing the close contacts of these individuals to see if they too became infected. By comparing infection rates among the contacts of those who were vaccinated and those who weren’t, scientists can get a better idea of whether vaccinated people can spread the virus. Those results will take about six months, and until then, the CDC is still recommending that even people who are fully vaccinated can only drop their masks if they are indoors with other people who are fully vaccinated in small groups."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vaccines-...182541925.html

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

UK is another interesting test case.

They are only slightly ahead of the USA in terms of total shots but they have largely held off on the 2nd dose, so the percentage of the population with at least 1 dose is much higher (46% vs 29%). If as some of the preliminary reports suggest, 1 dose is good for 80% vs 2 at 90%, they may have the right answer in terms of the overall population while we are still limited by supply. They are showing a stronger reduction since the new years peak but they also appear to have hit a plateau in case numbers.

They are clearly doing it better than we are. I feel almost guilty for getting the second dose in two weeks.

Not that we are doing it badly! We are crushing this pandemic. And so are they. The whole situation will look completely different in a couple of months. And not a moment too soon!

[CatNewBee]

Some good news, AstraZeneca is suspended for people below 60 in Germany, because of the risks of a Thrombosis with death possibility.

Only 60 to 70yo shall get it to the will of Merkel, however the younger brave can still get the shot if they want it.

https://www.n-tv.de/22461968

Seems 60..70 is an age not important for the next election?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Some good news, AstraZeneca is suspended for people below 60 in Germany, because of the risks of a Thrombosis with death possibility.

Only 60 to 70yo shall get it to the will of Merkel, however the younger brave can still get the shot if they want it.

https://www.n-tv.de/22461968

Seems 60..70 is an age not important for the next election?

Gotta laugh when one recalls Frau Merkel and Napoleon Macron both said it was ineffective for people over 65..
The Political Games Part 2..