New Zealand Sea Level Change

[senormechanico]

Countdown to thread closure in 3, 2, 1...

[MicHughV]

People love to coin new phrases....
"global warming"
"11 year sun cycle....
" el nino....
"heatwave"

The list is endless.

The only thing I know for sure is that the weather tomorrow will not be the same as today, last week, last month, last year. Will it be hotter, colder or does it matter???

To put this in perspective... consider this....in our known universe....planet earth is like a single grain of sand in all the worlds beaches...that's right...in the grand scheme of things...planet earth is pretty much of an insignificant size. On this tiny grain of sand, lives mankind...on a relative scale to the known universe, smaller than a microbe size, yet we presume to know what makes the weather tick... ?????

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by Ryban

You say it's difficult to measure sea level precisely, so ignore the NASA data, and yet you use a picture of a light house has your yard-stick.

that's not what I wrote. I'm happy to debate the issue but only if you don't twist the playing field.

You haven't provided anything scientific in defense of your statement. You provided a photo of a lighthouse at two different points in time, with no real way to discern sea level, and with no context for what the tides were between the two photos.

the sea level is clear and unambiguous in both photos. See what's there, not what you want to see.



There are no data proving the predicted effect of climate change - there are only speculation based on some data. More important, there are no data to corroborate any predictions but there are lots of hypotheticals and assumptions on which they are based.



Show me any model or prediction not based on assumptions.

[Ryban]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

we presume to know what makes the weather tick... ?????

Is this your attitude toward all the other products that have come out of the scientific process? Medicine? The development of new alloys and materials? Technology? The computer or phone you're using to post this statement?

How could we possibly presume to know how anything works.

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Show me any model or prediction not based on assumptions.

Almost every model for our understanding the world around us is based on some assumptions. All of our math is based on postulates that we cannot actually prove are "true". All of physics is based on certain assumptions that, for the most part, describe the way the universe works, and these change and improve as our understanding improves. It doesn't mean that as we collect more data, gravity is suddenly going to behave in reverse, just that we'll be able to more precisely treat it, and explain the corner cases where it does not behave the way we expect.

The same is true for climate science. Just because the models aren't perfect doesn't mean they should be discredited and ignored. They still have value to provide. If we treated all science the same way you're suggesting we treat climate science, then progress would be very slow if not impossible.

[chubby]

Originally Posted by jordanbigel

What a load of BS. Frankly.

it's good we agree..
:-)






curious...




when the last ice age ended....




do you believe the alarmists amongst the caveman were claiming an anthropogenic cause of the global "warming" way back them too?








how about the those early ice ages?

do you believe the earth warmed up bc of activities of men... 2.4 billion years ago??




IS there a chance..?
(maybe)


that there is this natural cycle of warming and cooling to the earth...
...and (frankly) it has ALWAYS been that way?


(of course it is possible...and is much more plausible of a "theory")

[dannc]

Back in the 80's, there was a news report on TV on the latest and greatest climate model.

The model showed global warming, which is what it was called back then, not climate change, which applies if it gets colder or warmer. The model showed that the earth was going to warm up so much that the rice bowls and bread baskets of the world would turn into desert and hundreds of millions of people would starve to death.

The Starvation Time would be around 2000.

I will give the reporter some credit because he actually asked an intelligent question about the model. What happens with the model if you enter TODAYS climate numbers? Does it correctly show the KNOWN climate as it exists today. Dumb looks from the scientists and the answer was no.

Later,
Dan

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Ryban

This line of reasoning though requires us to accept an explanation that it's more likely the continents are moving upward for reasons we don't understand, than for sea level to be rising for reasons that we do understand.

More importantly though, satellite data indicates that sea-level is rising more or less globally across the ocean surface, so we'd also have to accept that entire crust is pushing outward at a pretty alarming rate. Additionally, we can also use the same methods to measure the rise and fall of continents, and I don't believe we're seeing a correspond change in the land masses.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/im...cean-altimetry

No it's not inexplicable.. Plates are constantly moving, either over or under each other, or sideways rubbing against each other..
The Himalayas came into being this way and are still rising at an average 2cm/year..
The crust is not expanding, more likely it's shrinking at an infinitesimal rate..

[SY Harmony]

Originally Posted by Ryban

Here's the best part. The lighthouse photographed is Fort Dension in Sydney Harbour.

Here's tidal gauge data for that exact location over the last century:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=680-140

It clearly shows an increasing trend in sea level at at a rate of 0.75mm/year on average, and 3" over the last 100 years. That's not a lot, but it's also not 0cm.

100 human years is but a millisecond on the planetary timeline.

[Ryban]

Please mods, bring the sweet release of the death of this thread.

There is no useful discussion happening here relevant to the cruising community. According to the self-proclaimed experts here, science is bogus, sea levels aren't rising, thus, no reason to talk about it any longer.

[MicHughV]

We talk of other planets being "x" billion light years away...that is so far away as to be incomprehensible to anyone.
In the same vein, we postulate different "ages" for our venerable planet, etc. and so on, but the truth is that nobody knows.
Our entire solar system is a mere dot in the grand scheme of things.
True, mankind has "invented" various and sundry devices along the way, gone to the moon and a few other notable achievements, but beyond that, it seems we are hellbent on destroying each other. The quantity of nuclear weapons currently around is insane. Seems like no matter where you go on this planet, some of mankind is duking it out with someone else.
Off course, the question must be asked...why ???

I'm not sure what is to be gained by pondering whether or not there is or will be any measurable increase in sea level while we are blasting someone else to pieces. Talking of which, I'm sure harmful emissions produced by any type of nuclear device going off must be considerable, never mind all the other damage. By comparison, exhaust emissions is likely a drop in the bucket.

While I find this an interesting topic generating some thoughtful responses, I'm dubious that any of it will provided any meaningful course of direction for mankind.

[Gadagirl]

I watched for the first time a documentary "Mission Blue" and I was very muched moved. Because, as with the observations of Dr. Sylvia Alice Earle I have observed in my lifetime the degredation of coral reefs and sea life. She's an amazing pioneer scientist in oceanography, biology , etc . Very well accomplished,. If you are unable to view the dicumenertty i'd urge you to read up on her.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvia_Earle

Her documentary is on Netflix
https://www.netflix.com/title/70308278?preventIntent=true

And the mission blue web site
https://missionblue.org/

I naively thought to post on cruisers forum a rally of support amongst all sailors to help fund raising for her mission to create "HOPE SPOTS" , which are creating protected ocean areas similar to national parks and reserves as we do on land but instead in sensitive ocean habitats. Kind of like a community effort that goes beyond just forum information and banter.

Unfortunately reading the responses here I'm feeling defeated.

I just find it astounding that more of you are not alarmed by the loss of sea life and coral reefs. No matter your phylosophy or ideology, have you not noticed the decline? When I was was snorkeling and diving as a child and into my teens, and witnessing the present conditions. I noticed. Surely many of you have.

Dejectedly I'm wondering if there are enough of you here to support Mission Blue as a cruisers forum community and build upon it? We don't need consensus from all, just a core group. I'd like to think we'd make a difference.

[SY Harmony]

https://www.reuters.com/business/env...rs-2022-08-04/

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by GordMay

New Zealand faces major sea rise ‘much sooner than we thought’

While the global sea level is expected to rise 5 metres by 2100, for large parts of New Zealand, it could be 1 metre, because the land is sinking too, due to the movement of tectonic plates.

Gord,
I'm having trouble finding corroborating support for sea level rising 5 meters by 2100. Maybe you meant 0.5 meters?

[davil]

“{Ryban
Please mods, bring the sweet release of the death of this thread.”
=========================================

I disagree with having the thread closed

We need to understand the dynamics of where we are in society, there are two well-defined groups, those who believe in science and are involved in fighting for a better world not only for us but those generations that will follow.
On the other group, their main characteristic is denial.

To ignore these dynamics and persist in so-called “debate” and “let's interchange ideas” only leads to like in these forums the closing.

Since Covid had witnessed so many threads being closed with the regrettable effects, that interesting and helpful ideas were shut.


When the debate is replaced by a mockery of logic and the only purpose is to draw only anger, escalating to names calling, etc., they are inviting the moderators to close the thread, and therefore close another source of information.

I believe we all have a responsibility to keep these threads that are of interest for as long as they are interesting and educational.

================================

Gadagirl
I naively thought to post on cruisers forum a rally of support amongst all sailors to help fund raising for her mission to create "HOPE SPOTS" , which are creating protected ocean areas similar to national parks and reserves as we do on land but instead in sensitive ocean habitats. Kind of like a community effort that goes beyond just forum information and banter.

As for Gadagirl,
I believe you will be surprised by the response to your idea, and yes, you are in the right forum, many of us share our love for sailing, our boats, and a commitment to ensure we are not the “last of the Mohicans”

Defeatism is another tool used to silence those who want to contribute to a better future, giving up is not an option, the stakes are too high.

[jordanbigel]

Originally Posted by Gadagirl

I naively thought to post on cruisers forum a rally of support amongst all sailors to help fund raising for her mission to create "HOPE SPOTS" , which are creating protected ocean areas similar to national parks and reserves as we do on land but instead in sensitive ocean habitats. Kind of like a community effort that goes beyond just forum information and banter.

Unfortunately reading the responses here I'm feeling defeated.

I just find it astounding that more of you are not alarmed by the loss of sea life and coral reefs. No matter your phylosophy or ideology, have you not noticed the decline? When I was was snorkeling and diving as a child and into my teens, and witnessing the present conditions. I noticed. Surely many of you have.

Dejectedly I'm wondering if there are enough of you here to support Mission Blue as a cruisers forum community and build upon it? We don't need consensus from all, just a core group. I'd like to think we'd make a difference.

Don't assume that just because a few idiots here vocally and petulantly deny reality that the majority of us are not alarmed as you are. Most just don't post, understanding the futility of it. Me, I'm not that bright.

You are not alone.