Hurricane Florence

[DeepFrz]

Be prepared and keep safe. Possibility that Florence will hit the East Coast sometime early next week as a 4 or 5.

[hpeer]

Yup, saw that. We are in no danger to that one but there is one behind it also.

[Nicholson58]

‘‘Tis the season.

Was a 4 last night, now 2. Presently looks like south of Bermuda

[DeepFrz]

hpeer, they have just updated the projected path and it could head straight west. Still very early but thought I would give a heads up.

[Peregrine1983]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Yup, saw that. We are in no danger to that one but there is one behind it also.

If you're in Philly... Keep an eye on it. I'm certainly watching. The updated Euro model shows a continued Westward track towards NC, but we're still a few days away.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

[Suijin]

Ugh. This makes planning difficult:




I’m on my way south and expected to pull into Annapolis on the 13th. I have to fly to London for a week on the 16th and need to find a place to keep my boat. Naptown moorings are cheap and I have to pick up some stuff there anyway.

I hope the next 2-3 days bring some clarity so I’m not playing Russian Roulette.

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

Be prepared and keep safe. Possibility that Florence will hit the East Coast sometime early next week as a 4 or 5.

Nah not that soon. Six day forecast has it still hundreds of miles off the coast. That said, we’re going to have to wait almost that long to get a better sense of it’s track. There are competing steering features (trough to the north ridge to the west) that are very difficult to predict at this point.

[DeepFrz]

Yeah, right. Looks like next Wed. if it keeps the same course and speed. Object of my post was to alert folks that it could be on its way as the projected course had changed according to the NHC.

[svHyLyte]

For what its worth, the European Model on Windy.com forecasts the storm coming ashore in the vicinity of Myrtle Beach next Thursday--the 13th--in the late afternoon. Unfortunately, I have found that model to be rather good with its projections so I would be planning accordingly. I had hoped we'd get a year off after such a bad season in '17 but maybe not. N'any case, we wish good luck for everyone thereabouts.

[Nicholson58]

Presently downgraded to Storm. Fingers crossed

[Privilege]

As a Bermuda resident living on my boat, I'm very happy that she appears to have turned to the South of us...although I certainly don't wish her to make landfall in the U.S.

[Peregrine1983]

Originally Posted by Nicholson58

Presently downgraded to Storm. Fingers crossed

But... it’s about to move over really warm water to the West. When that happens, I think it will become a hurricane again. In my totally amateur opinion, I think that high to the North will keep it on a Western trajectory and we’re looking at a Virginia Beach area or Delmarva landfall as a hurricane next week. If I was in the Chesapeake I’d be watching this storm very closely. Good luck out there everyone.

Edit: Here's the most recent GFS and ECMWF from Ryan Maue's twitter - https://twitter.com/ryanmaue?lang=en



Another EDIT: NOAA is showing it as a Major Hurricane by 2AM Tues.

[Suijin]

Golly I’m in a pickle. In LI Sound headed down to Annapolis, six traveling days away. Tracks are all over the place but leaning towards NC and south. If I keep going I’d be arriving in Annapolis the day this thing makes landfall, wherever that is.

And I need to be on a plane by the 17th so need to fish or cut bait. Either keep heading south or lay the boat up here. Not many options between here and the Bay.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by svHyLyte

For what its worth, the European Model on Windy.com forecasts the storm coming ashore in the vicinity of Myrtle Beach next Thursday--the 13th--in the late afternoon. Unfortunately, I have found that model to be rather good with its projections so I would be planning accordingly. I had hoped we'd get a year off after such a bad season in '17 but maybe not. N'any case, we wish good luck for everyone thereabouts.

Havent tried it on hurricanes yet, but Ive also found ECMWF (default model for Windy) to be quite good.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Privilege

As a Bermuda resident living on my boat, I'm very happy that she appears to have turned to the South of us...although I certainly don't wish her to make landfall in the U.S.

Do you know a charter boat there named Ana Luna?