Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

[mdiederi]

Lots of drizzly fog around here lately.

This year spring actually got cooler each month instead of warmer.

[monte]

Well it seems tropical waves are becoming abundant in the Atlantic now. Since a few weeks ago they have been a regular feature on the forecasts, with a couple of waves crossing the windward islands each week. Apart from grey skies and a bit of rain they haven't packed much punch. No electrical storms that we have seen. I'm not sure if the grey skies and rain are before or after the wave passes.
Being our first time experiencing the region, Id like to get a handle on what these tropical waves are, and also how to understand the forecasts relating to the waves.
Below is todays forecast and synoptic chart.
I understand most tropical depressions form from tropical waves so understanding the factors that can intensify the tropical waves is important to me.
A couple of questions regarding the forecast:
They refer to convection, moisture, wind sheer and saharan dust. What do these features have to do with further development into a depression?
I notice the isobars are generally kinked at the tropical wave. From memory this can aid to create a closed isobar and form a depression given the right conditions.
How do the trades effect further development. Is it unlikely when they are stronger, say over 20kn, than when they are weaker at around 10kn?

Thanks for any advice, I really would like at this stage just to understand the forecast as it is written below so perhaps one of the weather gurus can do a laymans explanation of one or all of the three tropical waves mentioned below.
Cheers and thanks
Monte.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
28W MOVING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH SURGE
OF MOISTURE. IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...THUS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS S OF 09N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
45W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE EXCEPT WITHIN 200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITS AXIS FROM 09N TO 12N WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SUPPORTS A SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 78W
FROM 18N TO PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT IS HINDERING
DEEP CONVECTION.

[zeehag]

so many experts yet so many fail to realize that it takes more than a troical wave to make a named storm.
especially in atlantic basin.
as we watch these tropical waves progress across atlantic, we also noticing they are not seriously affecting atlantic side of usa and tropics.
they seem to be headed tto central america where they will or not become involved with conditions specific to formation and growth of tropical events.
as this is an el nino of grand proportions, and as the atlantic basin is allegedly less bothered by the potential storms formed by many of these, the bet would be that at least 3 of 4 will become epac storms. if below (south of)ictz, they will probably become wpac storms or cpac storms.
apparently there is a buncha high pressure areas preventing these from heading into atlantic basin. i think htese will come to us(epac basin or west more), as has been pattern so far.
tropical waves are merely tropical waves. they are not damaging to anyone until they mate with proper conditions, which seemingly are not present in atlantic basin as yet, but ARE thriving in epac.
have fun

[Hoofsmit]

Zeehag, thanks for the post, as Monte it's my first year here in the Caribbean, could you enlarge on what you call "proper conditions" to influence the tropical wave , so that we can try and figure out early on when things may start to happen, we can then keep an eye on how things progress?


Sent from my iPad.......i apologise for the auto corrects !!!

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Hoofsmit

Zeehag, thanks for the post, as Monte it's my first year here in the Caribbean, could you enlarge on what you call "proper conditions" to influence the tropical wave , so that we can try and figure out early on when things may start to happen, we can then keep an eye on how things progress?


Sent from my iPad.......i apologise for the auto corrects !!!

proper cpnditions-- HOt seawater, like we have here andyou havebnt yet, shear of wind in atmosphere--- follow storm 2k for enjoyment and fun .. they describe all needed part of a developing storm.
so far, caribbe and atlantic basins do not have these proper conditions. apparently we are between growths, so we dont either, except the HOT ocean water.
tehuantepec and papagayos also help our side develop storms that grow, but mainly the atmosphere and ocean temps will start the mayhem growing. pay attention to passage weather and your local sources a well as storm 2k and nhc to monitor development. dr jeffries?? on weather underground also has good info for y'all.

[Hoofsmit]

Thanks x


Sent from my iPad.......i apologise for the auto corrects !!!

[barnakiel]

Interestingly, there is very little causation between the conductive conditions and actual occurrences. So to say, conductive conditions are a prerequisite, but not the cause.

b.

[monte]

Well it looks like we have TS Danny to keep us busy for the next week or so. Be safe everyone and plan ahead!
An excellent video appraising the situation as of yesterday

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dDb0W7...layer_embedded

[monte]

And tonight's update

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qfG14hXGdzI&t=22

We are currently in Grenada so watching closely ...

[jdazey]

Very interesting, Monte. Thanks for posting.

[Hoofsmit]

The various models are interesting as to the estimated path in the next week

I think I might go buy some more mooring lines !!

Stay safe Monte


Sent from my iPad.......i apologise for the auto corrects !!!

[laika]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPaL_bKwYic