Cost/Benefit Ratio of Offsoundings weather reports

[Mara Mae]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

The earliest warnings I get on TRS is from the 10 day grib forecast. I always download both the European and US gribs once every 24 hours, because they differ greatly when they are more than a week out. However those models pick up TRS when the NHC is still not forecasting any development in the next 48 hours.

Once the NHC designates a TRS, the best info comes from their "discussion" where they include the reasoning behind their interpretation of the models, and whether or not there are large discrepancies between the models.

The NHC predictions are more accurate than the raw models, but they sometimes guess wrong, with deadly consequences. If Adelie thinks that a larger "blue water" boat will save you, read the NTSB investigation of the sinking of the El Faro. In that case a 700 ft ship went down with 33 souls because the captain didn't update his plan and relied on weather predictions that were over 12 hours old.

Sorry if I missed it, but what is TRS?

[capn_billl]

I personally like knowing what the weather is.

On a long coastal trip I can usually get good info by cell phone, and several days knowing a frontal system was on the way, I decided to stay at anchor, and let out more scope.

The one time I was too far from a cell tower for several days, an unexpected storm blew in, and made for a rough passage. ( I say unexpected, but I knew something was wrong when the waves started coming from the wrong direction).

I ended up anchoring in an unideal spot, but if I had better weather warning, I would have turned around to a more protected anchorage.

On a crossing having good weather might make the difference between a safe easy trip, or getting pounded followed by weeks of becalmed.

I bought a cheap SSB, but getting a GRIB from a cheap satellite phone seems the better long term solution.

[capn_billl]

And what's with all the sniping. Seems to me it's time for a few folks to go back out on the water.

Hurricane season is almost over, and Covid is on the downturn, and places are starting to open back up.

Been a stressful two years, time to get back out there, and calm down.

A couple weeks on a beach with a drink in hand will set your mind right again.

[joelhemington]

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

For example...?

Offshore weather reports will usually give you a three day window. While tracking a major storm's movement is not an exact science, even at only three knots, you should be able to get out of the way as long as you have a general idea of the storm's direction. Having a sound engine would be really helpful in a situation like this. The last thing you want to do is head directly into the storm (which could happen if you don't understand the storm's heading)

[Snore]

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

Inreach is interesting for me because I have a Garmin Chartplotter and Radar and am quite happy with their support network. I would like to know more about the weather service you contracted. I am considering having the reports sent to me from land based friends so I can apply them to my charts.

To interject— I used the inReach on a transatlantic run. The free weather stopped working. I emailed Garmin support- explaining I was transatlantic- 2 days later they responded to my home email. Fortunately, I also had Chris who gave me updates.

The downside of using inReach is no GRIBS. You are 100% relying on the router. I like seeing what is going on.

For the occasional off shore person, the cost is $150 for unlimited sat data plus PW subscription. If you spent the money on a life raft, and an EPIRB, why not a few bucks to avoid needing them??? Or beating the heck out of boat or crew.

[st paddy]

I didn't go with weather forecasting and found myself in 44 knots for two days, mid Atlantic. I didn't expect it so was not well prepared. I'd been told you can't avoid it and will get what you get. That is true but you can be prepared, change course knowing whats going to happen.
I had proper routing on the way home, still had strong headwinds but knowing it was not going to build and knowing it would veer enabled me to have an easier time.

Way less stress and anxiety with weather , not expensive in my opinion. Daft not to have it

[davil]

Very interesting thread, if nothing else a reminder of the crusaders, a time in history (repeated many times) when people will die and or kill for their beliefs.
I use a router service, find the cost nominal for me as it provides peace of mind to my daughter who follows my follies via Garmin ExplorerInReach.and a second opinion to me.
A good, reputable service is a good choice for me, has kept me out of trouble several times and will continue using it.
Yes, too much information could be a problem, is up to me to be selective on what sources of info I select, and then apply my judgment on how to use it.
One occasion was advised to change my destination and seek refuge on an unknown to me coastal area, but decided to override it and return to a known protected are I left a day earlier.
Another occasion was worth it to go for broke and motor full speed burning the last drop of diesel and seek refuge as suggested, kept me safely tied up on a dock from a nasty gale,first time actually saw the red flag flying
In addition to using weather routing services ,have Iridiumgo with Predictwind downloads
as well as GarminInReach Explorer for both emails from the router and their own weather reports.
Of course, when available, the VHF weather.
Although an agnostic by principle, when I am "out there" keep my options open!!
Seems appropriate the old poem

“O God, thy sea is so great and my boat is so small”

O God, Thy sea... — Sarah Rimkus, Composer

[Auspicious]

I struggled through this thread. There is a lot of rudeness here. That isn’t why I come to CF. For a mod to mock a user and then parade that s/he mocked that user is really rude. Reported. Not okay.

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

I am wondering about the practical benefit of receiving weather reports while on ocean passages. Perhaps a dumb question but if you are mid-ocean and receive a hurricane warning how will the information improve your situation?

So on point. There are no dumb questions, only stupid answers. I’m an active delivery skipper. This will take a while. *grin* In the first place if you suddenly get a hurricane warning you haven’t been paying attention.

Let’s start with basics. In the first place, gribs (which underlie apps like Windty, Passageweather, Predictwind, SailFlow, and ALL the others) are the direct output of computer models untouched by human hands. Synoptic charts (e.g. weather fax) are the products of professional meteorologists who look at multiple models, at ensembles (sensitivity analyses for you statisticians), and a lot of data we simply don’t have to generate their charts.


The computer models make some numerical assumptions necessary to complete calculations in a timely fashion. Some of the assumptions are not true. In the real world the implication is that you can’t see things like cold fronts in gribs. Big wind shifts, atmospheric instability, rain. I have a favorite comparison of gribs and synoptics in which hurricane Danielle is clear on the synoptics and looks like lovely sailing in the gribs.

For weather on delivery I carry either a Tecsun PL-880, cable, and JVCOMM32 for WEFAX or a Pactor modem and Airmail, depending on what is on the boat. Rfax.pdf is the bible for products, schedules, and frequencies. There is only one hole on the planet where good synoptics don’t exist in the far South Pacific. I do carry a Garmin inReach for tracking and SMS. The single point weather data available by the time you look at today, tomorrow, and the next day over a 3x3 matrix 100 nm between points will pay for an HF/SSB receiver in a week. Let’s not even talk about the cost of downloading synoptics over an Iridium 9555. The GO! is just a toy unless you pay a lot for add-on capability. If I can’t get the data on a real computer it isn’t very useful.

Now, as to being useful. We can see tropical waves coming a long way out – seven to ten days. We can see fronts at least 96 hours out, more if you grok 500 mb charts. As someone noted above you will make routing choices based on that information for a faster and more pleasant passage.

Synoptics are the winner.

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

This is what my question was getting at. Part of the reason I and my wife are interested in sailing is to get away from the electronics that filled our careers now that we are retired. We will try to do this on the smallest boat possible. Right now it is a Cape Dory 30. Refitting for safe ocean travel has to be done prudently due to the size and displacement (10000lbs). SSB/Transmitter is pretty much out. Like the VHF/AIS/Transponder option. Epirb of course. Maybe personal ones on each of our Mustang vest/harnesses? Sextant yes. Paper charts yes. Chartplotter/Radar/Transducer of course. We sail in fog a lot. We are Mac users so need to find a MacOS SSB Receiver/ WeatherFax solution. The Iriduim/ SatPhone/Predictwind type of set up might be too online data intensive for us to achieve our desired state of unpluggedness. We are also debating the need/reliability of a dedicated auto inflate life raft versus a properly rigged hard dink with ditch bag and drogue. Please feel free to reach out to us in a PM. Your thoughts and experience are wonderful for us to have. Thank You

Oof. I wouldn’t take a Cape Dory 30 across an ocean. You can, but I don’t want to. Too much like camping. Cape Dory boats are great solid boats but you are not as solid as they are. You may be made of sterner stuff than me. I think you’re offbase ruling out an HF/SSB radio and I think you’re offbase rulling out AIS. Paper charts are heavy and expensive.

For WEFAX as Mac users – my Tecsun or any of a number of alternatives and the weather fax software from Black Cat Systems.

A hard dink is not a life raft. Don’t kid yourself. If that is what you have you don’t have a life raft. That might be okay with you, but don’t kid yourself.

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

Adelie can you please explain to me how the ignore list feature works? Thanks

Don’t ignore a mod. They’ll land on your head. Report them instead. The little red-bordered triangle in the lower left corner of the post.

[PippaB]

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

Sorry if I missed it, but what is TRS?

Tropical rotating storm (although I am used to RTS, but that could be a regional thing).

Hurricane is specific to the western north Atlantic and eastern north Pacific, TRS covers those and typhoons, cyclones, and any other similar beast.

[Mara Mae]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

I struggled through this thread. There is a lot of rudeness here. That isn’t why I come to CF. For a mod to mock a user and then parade that s/he mocked that user is really rude. Reported. Not okay.



So on point. There are no dumb questions, only stupid answers. I’m an active delivery skipper. This will take a while. *grin* In the first place if you suddenly get a hurricane warning you haven’t been paying attention.

Let’s start with basics. In the first place, gribs (which underlie apps like Windty, Passageweather, Predictwind, SailFlow, and ALL the others) are the direct output of computer models untouched by human hands. Synoptic charts (e.g. weather fax) are the products of professional meteorologists who look at multiple models, at ensembles (sensitivity analyses for you statisticians), and a lot of data we simply don’t have to generate their charts.


The computer models make some numerical assumptions necessary to complete calculations in a timely fashion. Some of the assumptions are not true. In the real world the implication is that you can’t see things like cold fronts in gribs. Big wind shifts, atmospheric instability, rain. I have a favorite comparison of gribs and synoptics in which hurricane Danielle is clear on the synoptics and looks like lovely sailing in the gribs.

For weather on delivery I carry either a Tecsun PL-880, cable, and JVCOMM32 for WEFAX or a Pactor modem and Airmail, depending on what is on the boat. Rfax.pdf is the bible for products, schedules, and frequencies. There is only one hole on the planet where good synoptics don’t exist in the far South Pacific. I do carry a Garmin inReach for tracking and SMS. The single point weather data available by the time you look at today, tomorrow, and the next day over a 3x3 matrix 100 nm between points will pay for an HF/SSB receiver in a week. Let’s not even talk about the cost of downloading synoptics over an Iridium 9555. The GO! is just a toy unless you pay a lot for add-on capability. If I can’t get the data on a real computer it isn’t very useful.

Now, as to being useful. We can see tropical waves coming a long way out – seven to ten days. We can see fronts at least 96 hours out, more if you grok 500 mb charts. As someone noted above you will make routing choices based on that information for a faster and more pleasant passage.

Synoptics are the winner.



Oof. I wouldn’t take a Cape Dory 30 across an ocean. You can, but I don’t want to. Too much like camping. Cape Dory boats are great solid boats but you are not as solid as they are. You may be made of sterner stuff than me. I think you’re offbase ruling out an HF/SSB radio and I think you’re offbase rulling out AIS. Paper charts are heavy and expensive.

For WEFAX as Mac users – my Tecsun or any of a number of alternatives and the weather fax software from Black Cat Systems.

A hard dink is not a life raft. Don’t kid yourself. If that is what you have you don’t have a life raft. That might be okay with you, but don’t kid yourself.



Don’t ignore a mod. They’ll land on your head. Report them instead. The little red-bordered triangle in the lower left corner of the post.

Lots of good stuff here.

Comments and Precisions

1. My wife and I plan to cross from Nova Scotia to Ireland via the Azores. To see how we like ocean cruising before purchasing a bigger boat. BTW We met 35 years ago camping and like it. There are many people circumnavigating right now in Cape Dorys, PS31's, SC31, etc.. Anyway thats the plan to test to see if we like the lifestyle.

2. Never ruled out AIS I actually will purchase a Simrad RS40-B.

3. Never considered ignoring the mod just some of the name callers who called me a troll, braindead, uninformed, etc...

4. I am unaware that BlackCat is MacOS compatible. Seems to be only IOS. Maybe can get that into my Mac via my iPhone but would prefer to have the Tescun feeding right into a Mac app via SDR interface for MacOS.

5. The complexity, size, cost and amperage are currently the disincentives to installing an HF/SSB but your contrary opinion is exactly the experiential data I hoped to mine with my question.

6. Point taken on the hard dink as life raft query.

7. So you seem to be prioritizing HF/SSB over the Inreach and Go. Did I understand correctly. If so I will take a harder look at HF/SSB which I originally had leaned towards but thought perhaps was becoming obsolete with less HAM operators reporting now.

[wingssail]

I just re-read some of the OP's original queries on this thread:

Refitting for safe ocean travel has to be done prudently due to the size and displacement (10000lbs). SSB/Transmitter is pretty much out. Like the VHF/AIS/Transponder option. Epirb of course. Maybe personal ones on each of our Mustang vest/harnesses? Sextant yes. Paper charts yes. Chartplotter/Radar/Transducer of course. We sail in fog a lot.

If you are considering the weight and cost, I would definitely trade the SSB/pactor set up for radar. It is useful for so much more.

Fog does not exist in most of the cruising areas in the tropics. Even if you do encounter fog AIS covers a percentage of that risk, chart plotter an other percentage. Some people swear by radar for spotting entrances (but a good charting system does that) and squalls at night. However it is bulky and uses power and must constantly be operated with some skill.

We came from Seattle and fog was endemic, but we did not want to pay for, or supply the power to, radar. We managed with good ears and eyes. Since leaving the sub-tropics we have not seen fog.

Your chosen vessel is small and it seems to me that communications would be more valuable than radar.

Add: a laptop computer for charting (below decks, out of the weather, with a keyboard and mouse) operate the SSB from it, display gribs on it, and your charts, and email, and lots of other stuff. Secure it to the chart table, (does the Cape Dory have a chart table? maybe you need to make one). So, with that you can skip the chart plotter entirely. I honestly don't get the idea of creating routes or modifying them on a stormy night out in the cockpit on a chart plotter. Do it seated below where it is safe, quiet, and dry. I think many cruisers have the concept in their minds that they will be sitting on their captain's chair at the helm station with their hands on the wheel and their eyes firmly planted on the chart plotter screen. A better concept is that the boat is on autopilot or windvane, you are ducked behind the dodger, and you or your partner fires up the laptop from time to time to check your position. Going into or out of harbors or channels, well, there are two of you, right?

For passages where you don't want to run the computer all the time (for power reasons) make sure your VHF radio has ais monitoring on it. It is much less a power hog.

[davil]

PM sent

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

I struggled through this thread. There is a lot of rudeness here. That isn’t why I come to CF. For a mod to mock a user and then parade that s/he mocked that user is really rude. Reported. Not okay.


…

“Mocking” was a poor choice of words on my part and arguably not what I was doing. Sarcastic perhaps.

I asked a series of pointed questions intending to highlight the absolutist nature of Stu’s post.

[PippaB]

Originally Posted by Adelie

“Mocking” was a poor choice of words on my part and arguably not what I was doing. Sarcastic perhaps.

I asked a series of pointed questions intending to highlight the absolutist nature of Stu’s post.

And you were rude in the process of doing so. I second Auspicious' take on the matter, but didn't have the guts to say so.

[donradcliffe]

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

Sorry if I missed it, but what is TRS?

https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/...evolving_Storm