Climate change could cause more lightning, sparking more wildfires
According to a 2014 study [1], lightning strikes are expected to increase, about 12 per cent, for every degree Celsius, the global average temperature increases.
Lightning occurs more frequently when it is hotter, than when it is colder.
Currently there are around 25 million lightning strikes per year. Romps et al.
[1] constructed a proxy, based on the energy available, to make air rise in the atmosphere, and on precipitation rates, to model the frequency of lightning strikes, across the continental United States.
They predict that the number of lightning strikes will increase, by about 12% [± 5%], for every degree C of rise in global average air temperature, and about 50% over this century.
Two main factors influence how much lightning a region gets: precipitation, and how much energy there is in the atmosphere [AKA: convective available potential energy, ‘CAPE’].
On a warm day, hot air rises, creating an updraft. When it collides with cool air, higher in the sky, a cumulonimbus [thundercloud] could form.
CAPE measures how strong that updraft is, and the general instability in the atmosphere. The higher the instability, the more likely a thunderstorm will roll in.
While thunderstorms are typically associated with rainfall, snow, and heavy winds; they can sometimes form in hot, dry conditions — a phenomenon known as ‘dry lightning’.
Dry lightning is essentially regular cloud-to-ground lightning - the distinction being, it happens with little or no rainfall, at the surface.
A 2023 study
[2] , co-authored by Dmitri Kalashnikov, looked at the conditions that prompt dry lightning.
In his study, Kalashnikov says that dry lightning sparked half of the wildfires in
California, in 2020, further highlighting the risk this phenomenon can pose.
A new study
[3], in Canadian Journal of Forest
Research examined Alberta's 2023 wildfire season, the worst on
record. The study found lightning started 13 wildfires in May, alone. Usually, Alberta will see one fire started by lightning in May.
[1] “Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming” ~ by David M. Romps et al
➥
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259100
[2] “Lightning-Ignited Wildfires in the Western United States: Ignition Precipitation and Associated Environmental Conditions” ~ by Dmitri A. Kalashnikov et al
➥
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2023GL103785
[3] “Alberta’s 2023 wildfires: context, factors and futures” ~ by Jennifer Beverly & Dave Schroeder
➥
https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjfr-2024-0099
See also:
“Severe storm threat builds with the heat on the western Prairies” ~ by The
Weather Network,
Forecast Centre
➥
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en...a-saskatchewan
[quote=TWN] “... ome of the storms throughout the foothills and into central Alberta could turn severe with strong
wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rainfall the main risks. Residents should also remain alert for the potential for dry lightning, which could spark wildfires...” [/quote
“Brazil is on fire, and both crime and climate change are to blame” ~ by Sheena Goodyear · CBC
Radio
➥
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens...rime-1.7307415
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