The VSWR indicator on the Vesper is nearly useless. If it says things are bad, they most certainly are. But things can be very bad, and it will still report as good.
An experienced
engineer or HAM with good test
equipment can tell you a lot, down to the inch of where the problem actually is with the line or antenna.
Beyond that, ignore Marine Traffic. Again, (nearly) useless. Have a friend sail away from you and make constant radio checks.
Record both the distance and quality of the VHF, and of the AIS. Also be aware that while not moving, your AIS only transmits once every 6 minutes. And because it is not SOTDMA, it might "collide" and transmit at the same time as another AIS, and the transmission will be
lost. Say that happens 2x in a row, it might be 18 minutes before someone else sees you. That is while stationary. While moving it transmits every 30 seconds (IIRC) so that is much less likely to be a problem.
Check that the lights on the splitter are working properly. I forget exactly how they change, but the "splitter" is really a switch, and you should see it switch back and forth when you transmit on VHF compared to AIS. If it never switches to AIS, it will present a perfect 50ohm load to the AIS and the AIS unit will think everything is great.
The problem is most often an issue with a connector. Most often they problem can be found by visibly checking the connector by opening it up. If it doesn't look brand new, all shiny, with no signs of
water or
corrosion, then it is a problem. Some problems can not be seen, and require test
equipment to identify.