Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by funjohnson

Our 1989 Sabre 34 still had the "window sticker" at $98,400. Based on an inflation calculator, the current cost would be $199,745. A new 34' Jeanneau seems to be about $189,000 and a new Tartan 345 (closer to Sabre's quality) is $278,000.

Originally Posted by Exile

We often hear how some of the more moderately priced modern boats are "mass-produced," i.e. less manual labor and more automation. I've always assumed this has translated into cheaper production costs, and thus cheaper selling prices for the end consumer. There are some mfgs. who have been around for decades (in one form or another), but they seem to have consistently occupied the less expensive segment of the market. Hunter & Catalina immediately come to mind since they are US mfgs, but I'm not sure how long some of the popular Euro mfgs have been around. But even if lower to moderately priced boats have managed to reduce their production costs, that doesn't necessarily translate into boats which can now be produced for what they cost to produce decades ago (in today's dollars). It could be that the automation has merely kept pace with the increased costs of materials and (reduced) labor.

Sort of an academic question given all the other variables that are being discussed. Was mainly just curious . . . .

The demise of the middle class means an increasing number of people are largely taken out of the market. Perhaps this explains the general increase in size of boats. As the lower economic range gets knocked out of the potential boat-buying demographic, those that do remain are shifting into the higher income categories. More money = bigger boat.

Matt’s single data point could be viewed in this light. But much more data is needed. I wonder if any long-term brokers might have this kind of information.

This is all rather academic, but what the heck — winter still rages. We gotta do something to entertain ourselves .

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Davy J

If there were a market for such boats, they would produce them, there is not.

They have discovered their only market is boats that didn't exist 10 years ago, mostly monohull's over 48' or catamarans. And they market them to people who can afford them.

There's not a market for affordable new boats??? Or course there is! Everyone is complaining about the prices of new and used boats because they're too expensive!

I'm suggesting the builders adopt a bottom-up IKEA strategy: do market research to determine how much of a budget new and younger boaters appreciate spending, then build that simple boat, ie the car equivalent of manual windows and seat adjustments. We're at the parallel of PC versus Apple from 20 years ago: PC was too complicated unless one had a job in IT (used boat repairs and upgrades are too expensive and frustratingly unreliable unless one is a boat mechanic), so Apple came along and gave the ppl a simpler product that worked for the masses minus the frustration (simple, minimalist new boat with simple white fiberglass (look familiar?) and none of the expensive or complicated amenities, computers and electronics that break. Although Apple was never cheap). Apple should build boats. You heard it here first. Ppl bring the beverages, bathing suits, and the party anyway.

I'll just guess at a hypothetical budget of $40K USD for a boat. Less 10% profit margin leaves $36K in materials and labor to build it. Outsource some items but make the hulls here. Can this be done? I don't know. Maybe they've done their market research and decided that technology will cause most young people to live in a virtual world where they can place VR glasses and skull caps on their heads to emit electroencephalographic waves to stimulate and simulate their brains into having the same feelings as the real experience of sailing the South Pacific without leaving their apartment for a lot less $$ and carbon footprint as the real experience...

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Exile

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
But is there any way to determine how much older used boats may have sold for when new? >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Some owners association websites are better than others. Our C34 website has features, options and price pages from back in 1986 when they first started making my boat, my year, too. I didn't buy it new.


Tech Wiki – Catalina 34 International Association

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

I'll just guess at a hypothetical budget of $40K USD for a boat. Less 10% profit margin leaves $36K in materials and labor to build it. Outsource some items but make the hulls here. Can this be done? I don't know. Maybe they've done their market research and decided that technology will cause most young people to live in a virtual world where they can place VR glasses and skull caps on their heads to emit electroencephalographic waves to stimulate and simulate their brains into having the same feelings as the real experience of sailing the South Pacific without leaving their apartment for a lot less $$ and carbon footprint as the real experience...

A Catalina 22 has a base price of 24K. A Catalina 315 is has a base price of 144K.


They'll sell for higher once you outfit them.


I'd guess Catalina is probably about as inexpensive as you're going to get.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

A Catalina 22 has a base price of 24K. A Catalina 315 is has a base price of 144K.


They'll sell for higher once you outfit them.


I'd guess Catalina is probably about as inexpensive as you're going to get.

Thank you. That's great info. It appears that the average person's disposable income is being attracted by tech et al and diverted away from boating and a few other hobbies.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

This is all rather academic, but what the heck — winter still rages. We gotta do something to entertain ourselves .

Ya got that right! I'm sure winter is raging more in your 'hood than mine, but if it's too cold to sail, or otherwise mess around on our boats, then it hardly matters. No matter how I need to -- and want to -- occupy my time on land, it's never nearly as interesting as being onboard it seems!

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

Thank you. That's great info. It appears that the average person's disposable income is being attracted by tech et al and diverted away from boating and a few other hobbies.

John Harries on the Morgan's Cloud website (https://www.morganscloud.com/about/), made a serious effort at one point to build a no frills, long-distance cruising sailboat for no more than $100,000 (as I recall). There were a series of articles on it, from construction to options (almost none). Although you may be focused more on power boats, it makes for interesting reading. Not sure what, if anything, came of the project, but I believe it attracted a number of serious prospective buyers. Some of the website articles are behind a paywall but it's well worth a subscription, imo. As a sailboat owner, I've generally found it to be one of the best resources on the internet actually.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The demise of the middle class means an increasing number of people are largely taken out of the market. Perhaps this explains the general increase in size of boats. As the lower economic range gets knocked out of the potential boat-buying demographic, those that do remain are shifting into the higher income categories. More money = bigger boat.

Matt’s single data point could be viewed in this light. But much more data is needed. I wonder if any long-term brokers might have this kind of information.

This is all rather academic, but what the heck — winter still rages. We gotta do something to entertain ourselves .

You seem obsessed with the socialist notion “the demise of the middleclass” nonsense.

People aren’t buying boats for the very simple reason.... their interests have changed. Nothing economic about it, they are just choosing to do other things with their money which I hope to capitalize on sooner than later.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

You seem obsessed with the socialist notion “the demise of the middleclass” nonsense.

People aren’t buying boats for the very simple reason.... their interests have changed. Nothing economic about it, they are just choosing to do other things with their money which I hope to capitalize on sooner than later.

Ken, you seem blind to evidence and ample data that is easily available. Any effort will turn up mountains of research, data and information about economic reality of the diminishing middle class.

Of course there is not one single reason for reduced cruising boat buying … few things in life have single explanations. But if you choose to ignore economics, you blind yourself to reality.

[Davy J]

There's not a market for affordable new boats???

There is a market for affordable boats............ it's called the used boat market.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Davy J

There is a market for affordable boats............ it's called the used boat market.

Don't fool yourself, the market for used boats is deader than a door nail. People are finding other things to do which don't require time spent on a learning curve, personal investment or doing any manual labor. They work their job.... then want easy mindless, easy entertainment.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Ken, you seem blind to evidence and ample data that is easily available. Any effort will turn up mountains of research, data and information about economic reality of the diminishing middle class.

Of course there is not one single reason for reduced cruising boat buying … few things in life have single explanations. But if you choose to ignore economics, you blind yourself to reality.

You're blinded by the crappy economy everywhere but in the USA, where the economy happens to be roaring ahead like it hasn't in the past 40 years thanks to Trump. Maybe Canada should elect it's own "Trump" like Italy did last year.

I see opportunity, possibility and prosperity, you seem to only see gloom and doom.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Ken, you seem blind to evidence and ample data that is easily available. Any effort will turn up mountains of research, data and information about economic reality of the diminishing middle class.

Of course there is not one single reason for reduced cruising boat buying … few things in life have single explanations. But if you choose to ignore economics, you blind yourself to reality.

There are plenty of available boats out there that people aren't buying, even as people spend their money on other things.

We hear all the time how broke everyone is, even as people buy record amounts of everything, including luxury goods. I'm not sure how boats overall are doing, but they're still making sports/luxury cars. In fact, Ford is basically cutting out the economy cars produced in America in favor of SUVs.

Americans are doing pretty well, in spite of the media narrative that focuses on the people left behind. You know what? There were always people left behind.

My dad loves to tell the story about when all he got for Christmas was a pair of wading boots. Then he went out side in them, fell down and split them on the first day he had them. That was his Christmas.

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometime, you just might find you get what you need.

[ramblinrod]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

There's not a market for affordable new boats??? Or course there is! Everyone is complaining about the prices of new and used boats because they're too expensive!

I'm suggesting the builders adopt a bottom-up IKEA strategy: do market research to determine how much of a budget new and younger boaters appreciate spending, then build that simple boat, ie the car equivalent of manual windows and seat adjustments. We're at the parallel of PC versus Apple from 20 years ago: PC was too complicated unless one had a job in IT (used boat repairs and upgrades are too expensive and frustratingly unreliable unless one is a boat mechanic), so Apple came along and gave the ppl a simpler product that worked for the masses minus the frustration (simple, minimalist new boat with simple white fiberglass (look familiar?) and none of the expensive or complicated amenities, computers and electronics that break. Although Apple was never cheap). Apple should build boats. You heard it here first. Ppl bring the beverages, bathing suits, and the party anyway.

I'll just guess at a hypothetical budget of $40K USD for a boat. Less 10% profit margin leaves $36K in materials and labor to build it. Outsource some items but make the hulls here. Can this be done? I don't know. Maybe they've done their market research and decided that technology will cause most young people to live in a virtual world where they can place VR glasses and skull caps on their heads to emit electroencephalographic waves to stimulate and simulate their brains into having the same feelings as the real experience of sailing the South Pacific without leaving their apartment for a lot less $$ and carbon footprint as the real experience...

Me thinks there may be a lack of basic business knowledge at play here.

If one plans to sell a boat for $40K, that costs $36K to build, we can most certainly predict business failure before they open their doors. In fact, no one in their right mind would invest in that business plan.

Pretty much anything sold for a 10% margin is a loss leader (sold knowing full well insufficient profit is made on that item, in the hope of selling higher margin products or services.)

For a low volume, high ticket item like a boat, the make prolly needs 50% margin to stay in business. So if it cost them $36K to build, they need to sell for $72K.

To pay for all the investment and overhead, they need to sell one #$#$load of boats to stay in business.

This is what happened to MacGregor.

When they were limited to produce only 1 boat per day by environmental agencies, Roger folded up shop.

Not worth trying to stay in business.

This was the closet boat to an IKEA product on the planet.

This after being one of the most successful cruising sailboat manufacturers for years (with respect to sales volume).

[Exile]

Originally Posted by ramblinrod

For a low volume, high ticket item like a boat, the make prolly needs 50% margin to stay in business. So if it cost them $36K to build, they need to sell for $72K.

$72K would be a 100% margin. 50% margin over $36K cost = $18K margin or a selling price of $54K.