Hurricane Predictions and 5G...Concerning

[AiniA]

I don't think that the number of deaths is very predictive of forecast accuracy. The whole purpose of forecasting is to reduce the number of people who die by giving them the information they need to bail out when warranted.

[Sailing Ohm]

Originally Posted by wiekeith

+1, I can't wait to see the theory behind that one

Read the article...

[dennismenace111]

Originally Posted by gonesail

inaccurate is one way of putting it. the NHC has routinely exaggerated wind speeds on every storm this year. in addition to naming every low pressure system in the Atlantic and calling it a hurricane. is this to prove to us sheep that hurricane seasons are getting worse?

The NHC has been naming tropical storms for as long as I can remember. I grew up in Miami. Lived in South Florida since 1955. NHC names tropical storms but doesnt designate them as hurricanes till sustained wind speeds reach 74mph. Tropical storms are named for when storms reach sustained wind speed of 39 mph.

Only storms with tropical characteristics get named. So your comment that every low pressure area gets named is an exaggeration in itself.

[wiekeith]

Originally Posted by Sailing Ohm

Read the article...

No, not accessible from Europe. But I did read some others I found, which I commented on two posts later later - interesting.

[Sailing Ohm]

Originally Posted by hlev00

The misleading piece is that it is only the high band 5g that uses the frequencies discussed as interfering with water vapor detection. There are, so far, very few of these cells so I don't imagine they are interfering with this years data. If there has been any actual reduction in forecast fidelity, it would seem to have to be coming from somewhere else.


It is hard to imagine that the 5g high band would ever be deployed widely enough to have a material impact, but that's just a gut feeling.

See that’s what I am not sure about. It seems like all the tech and human variables would be the same except for the greater 5G expansion. How prevalent or wide reaching are these frequencies? I don’t know if that’s an answer us civilians might ever know unfortunately.
NASA and NOAA have already expressed major concern about it, the article I read was from 2019. A lot can change quickly with these things.

[wiekeith]

A simplistic breakdown of the UK allocated bandwidths for 5G below. I believe the 26GHZ is the contentious one - 24.25GHZ to 27.5GHZ

[Dsanduril]

Originally Posted by sailorbobdeb

Sally came ashore in our AL Gulf Coast area. Family in LA had zero issues. Maybe you mean Laura if you're referring to SW LA? They couldn't get Sally right for projected landfall or wind speeds.

You are correct, my memory fails me, and that's just for events that happened this year.
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The whole 5G thing is yet another example of complete polarization between two parties, with exaggerated, unsubstantiated claims on both sides.

On the telecom side it is absurd that 24GHz will only work if they can use -20dBW broadcast power. It can be made to work at lower power, it just costs more.

On the NOAA side, 5G transmissions (at 24 and 38GHz) only affect their measurements in areas where they are present, to the limit of their resolution, which can be in the tens of miles. So it may affect moisture, rain, and snow measurements within a few miles of locations where 5G is deployed. It could have significant effects in the quantity of predicted rainfall in those area, but by their own statements it will have little effect on open ocean measurements that are the basis for longer range hurricane projections.

If both parties would get off their high horses and dispense with the hyperbole we might be able to get somewhere, but as with all things American these days it seems that complete polarization is the only acceptable approach.

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by gonesail

inaccurate is one way of putting it. the NHC has routinely exaggerated wind speeds on every storm this year. in addition to naming every low pressure system in the Atlantic and calling it a hurricane. is this to prove to us sheep that hurricane seasons are getting worse?

You noticed too?

Apparently hurricanes are only a problem when a Republican is in office on an election year.

example Dolly Eduardo, Josephine, wilfred. A single 45mph gust got them a name. In Texas we call that a mid afternoon thunder shower.

No circulation, or development, but a hurricane hunter found a temporary high wind.

It's like they blame the President for accidently pressing the hurricane button on a top secret weather machine.

Season total, 9 hurricanes, two major, so about average.

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by dennismenace111

The NHC has been naming tropical storms for as long as I can remember. I grew up in Miami. Lived in South Florida since 1955. NHC names tropical storms but doesnt designate them as hurricanes till sustained wind speeds reach 74mph. Tropical storms are named for when storms reach sustained wind speed of 39 mph.

Only storms with tropical characteristics get named. So your comment that every low pressure area gets named is an exaggeration in itself.

Explain Wilfred. No circulation or development, got a name.

"Tropical characteristics", like an eye?

Circulation?

Sustained winds?

Storm bands?

[Dsanduril]

Well, someone at NOAA at least interpreted the data as indicating low level circulation and wind speeds at 35 knots, all it takes to get a name.

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed....Source

Even at the time it was named it was predicted to fizzle with 40 knots being the maximum forecast wind speed. Nevertheless at least one forecaster thought it met the criteria for getting a name. No idea if s/he is red, blue, or colorless.

[capn_billl]

35 kts isn't even a strong gale.

In the past the hurricane hunters wouldn't have even been called out for a storm like this.

45 kts is a tropical storm.

NOAA was purged 8 years ago of anyone not toeing the Global warming narrative.

They are all Liberal Democrats, and highly partisan now.

I recently got into an argument with a group of them, and was thrown out because they were frothing at the mouth insisting "Trump needs impeached immediately over Sharpiegate".

I didn't see the big deal, and didn't get upset enough for them.

That's it, I wont be allowed back.

[rhpike]

Having a sailboat in Kemah, TX (just South of Houston), I follow the hurricane season quite closely. With respect to location of the eye when it hits the coast, I believe that all the 2020 Gulf Coast hurricane forecasts (3-5 day) were quite accurate with the exception of Sally. Sally was originally expected to hit near the New Orleans area, but stalled just offshore until it finally landed near Gulf Shores, AL. I'm not a weather forecaster, but read that it is very difficult to predict where a hurricane will land when its forward motion is near zero. My 2 cents.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

Explain Wilfred. No circulation or development, got a name...

Wilfred was a tropical storm.
According to the NWS, a tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system (not associated with a front) that develops over tropical and sometimes sub-tropical waters and has organized deep convection with a closed wind circulation about a well-defined center.

On September 13, the NHC began to monitor a tropical wave over Africa for possible development. It subsequently emerged over the eastern Atlantic and began to slowly organize as it moved westward, although it continually failed to obtain a well-defined low-level circulation (LLC).

However, at 15:00 UTC on September 18, an LLC was found and, as it already had gale force winds, the system was designated as Tropical Storm Wilfred.

Wilfred was the earliest 21st named storm on record, beating out Hurricane Vince of 2005 by 20 days, and is only the second "W" named storm in the Atlantic (joining 2005's Hurricane Wilma) since naming began in 1950.
Located at a relatively low latitude, Wilfred remained weak and changed little in appearance due to wind shear and unfavorable conditions caused by the outflow of nearby Hurricane Teddy. Wilfred as a result failed to strengthen and at 15:00 UTC on September 20, Wilfred weakened to a tropical depression. Wilfred eventually degenerated into a trough at 03:00 UTC on September 21.

[roland stockham]

The global weather predictions have, for several years, anticipated that storms will become stronger and less predicable as atmospheric conditions change. Not been following this years hurricane forecasts as I have not been sailing but I have seen local weather pasterns in the NW change significantly. This may be down to the El Nino La Nina changeover but we already have more snow laying than in Jan last year. Snow does not normally start until mid Nov in a typical year. So yes weather patterns are changing in many places and forecast models may well struggle to keep up.
That's all as predicted and expected but the ref to 5g! What on earth have cell phones got to do with weather forecasting, they are not in the loop anywhere. All data is handled by fixed high speed lines, no mobile system would be fast enough. They are assembled via the international Grib data sharing network then processed at the forecast centers. The forecasts are then distributed via the internet and various media. If you use a 5g network as your modem connection that should mean it takes a few seconds less time to download but the information will be identical to what I receive. via cable/ISDN

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

... I recently got into an argument with a group of them, and was thrown out because they were frothing at the mouth insisting "Trump needs impeached immediately over Sharpiegate"...

After Trump changed the track of hurricane Dorian, with a sharpie, the House approved a budget, of 12 crayons, for the border wall.