What Will Happen to Boat Pricing when Euro Is Under Par to US$ ?

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by vegasandre

Thanks for everyone's replys.

Much of it makes sense. I am currently pretty large long a 2x inverse Euro ultrashort ETF(EUO).This is pretty much a longer term way to short the euro without buying/seling the futures contract or forex. I found the forex and actual futures markets best left to traders who can handle the crazy interday moves on who said what or what the latest europeon rumour is.

As far as the euro- I think its toast-t least in its current form.

Interesting will be the effect on 2nd hand boat pricing. For instance when the euro rallied against the dollar these past 5 years- you didnt see the individual US boat sellers raise their pricing because the dollar was so weak. Most didnt even know or care too much about this. Basically 400k usd was 400k USD regardelss of what the euro,pound,yen ,franc was doing.

some here are suggesting that lets say a french individual who had to unload their Catana and was selling it for lets say- 400k EU. He was unable to selll it for a year. For arguments sake- lets say during that time the Euro was falling towards dollar parity. Many are saying here that he would now raise the price of the boat to match the falling rate of the EU to lets say 500k EU.

there is now way he would do that (new builders-maybe). So that 400k EU Catana 47 that would cost me 560kusd this year- right now -would in fact only cost me 400k usd next year with the exchange at even parity.

Your whole post is conjecture. To suggest a 30% net change in asset valuation within 12 months is wishful thinking. I suspect you'll be still deliberating about that catamaran 10 years from now. If you have the money you buy and go sailing, if you haven't you don't buy it.

There is one thing for sure. The EU will shift hell and high water to ensure that the eurozone doesn't fragment. A breakup of the eurozone would break up the EU and the resting tidal wave would take the non euro countries and whack the US hard. There's a reason Obama is all over the Germans at the moment.

Really hedging on chaos so as to buy a boat???????

As a parting shot. The experience in countries where personal debt and negative equity is huge , ie Ireland is that users take boats off the Market, since there are really no buyers. Hence the stuff that's available is the stuff nobody wants. Yes there are some bargains but not as many as you think.

Dave

[Kojiro]

The world is full of amateur forex traders who over the long run never win.....or 99% don't.

If you're that good (in the 1% of winners) then you should stop sweating the small change and buy whatever boat you want and ignore the price in euros, AUD, USD or whatever...unless you enjoy a good forex fantasy more than you do sailing.

[Hillbillylad]

If I were an American, shopping for a boat with a bank load of dollars I would buy soon. The Russians and Chinese are already wanting to buy oil in their own currency. That is what is keeping the US dollar alive just now as the global currency. Once that changes, dollars will be only fit for insulating the coach roof. The European situation is a lot less dependent on any particular government to fail. Once Germany gets off it's soap box and goes to the piggy bank most of their issues will be sorted.

[DJBrookster]

Originally Posted by vegasandre

Still looking to buy that Catamaran.
When looking at 2nd hand pricing - Ive noticed most are priced in Euros.

However It is my feeling that the Euro is basically done as we know it.

So when the Euro - Currently at 1.34-1.35 USD makes its eventually move to "destiny" to under 1.0USD (btw - this is a certainty)

what do you think will happen to the overall market pricing of used Cats and Monos?

USD is in it's dying spiral. Yes it may survive a little longer, but as a reserve currency.....bye bye. Printed too many dollars and economy is screwed. China and Russia own your debt, your just Greece in the wings!!

[DJBrookster]

Originally Posted by vegasandre

Thanks for everyone's replys.

Much of it makes sense. I am currently pretty large long a 2x inverse Euro ultrashort ETF(EUO).This is pretty much a longer term way to short the euro without buying/seling the futures contract or forex. I found the forex and actual futures markets best left to traders who can handle the crazy interday moves on who said what or what the latest europeon rumour is.

As far as the euro- I think its toast-at least in its current form.

Interesting will be the effect on 2nd hand boat pricing. For instance when the euro rallied against the dollar these past 5 years- you didnt see the individual US boat sellers raise their pricing because the dollar was so weak. Most didnt even know or care too much about this. Basically 400k usd was 400k USD regardelss of what the euro,pound,yen ,franc was doing.

some here are suggesting that lets say a french individual who had to unload their Catana and was selling it for lets say- 400k EU. He was unable to selll it for a year. For arguments sake- lets say during that time the Euro was falling towards dollar parity. Many are saying here that he would now raise the price of the boat to match the falling rate of the EU to lets say 500k EU.

there is no way he would do that (new builders-maybe). So that 400k EU Catana 47 that would cost me 560kusd this year- right now -would in fact only cost me 400k usd next year with the exchange at even parity.

Your dead right about the euro.....but don't forget your US debt, the Fed is close to meltdown. Who goes first euro or USD?

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Hillbillylad

If I were an American, shopping for a boat with a bank load of dollars I would buy soon. The Russians and Chinese are already wanting to buy oil in their own currency. That is what is keeping the US dollar alive just now as the global currency. Once that changes, dollars will be only fit for insulating the coach roof. The European situation is a lot less dependent on any particular government to fail. Once Germany gets off it's soap box and goes to the piggy bank most of their issues will be sorted.

Yes Germany is the problem not Greece or Italy. It wants the benefit of a single currency but doesn't want to get its hands dirty. That phase will pass survival is a great motivator.

Dave

[DJBrookster]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Yes Germany is the problem not Greece or Italy. It wants the benefit of a single currency but doesn't want to get its hands dirty. That phase will pass survival is a great motivator.

Dave

No the US is the problem. It brought the banking and global economies to it knees with sub prime issues. Money borrowed that could not be paid back.......just like the spiralling national debt. Wake up if not for the dollar being the reserve currency you would have already have devalued properly, but right now hide behind quantative easing. Don't forget the world opisthotonos bigger than the dollar.

[cchesley]

Yup, the dollar is toast too. But by the time this all shakes out, what will our pastime of sailing and cruising look like? (gotta keep this somewhat focused on content that'll keep the mods happy, donchaknkow?) Most sailing is, by its nature, at our respective countries' borders and security will probably force a major shift in our freedoms to go for a coastal cruise, let alone an international one.

Parts, supplies, repairs will become increasing challenges as well. Buy now, go now has never been a more compelling argument.

[justwaiting]

i would agree with Dave

Prices in a market are based on supply and demand. The major effect that the Euro problems are likely to have is the effect that they are likely to have on consumer confidence and business confidence in the short and medium terms. What you have to remember is that a falling Euro will have inflationary pressures due to the rising costs of the imported components and on wages due to CPI increases. While this MAY be offset by any changes in exchange rates a 30% decline in the costs that you experience would be, well lets be nice, optimistic!!!.

[sequitur]

I may be dating myself, but I remember the pound at 4.76 to the CA$, at the same time the US$ would buy only CA$0.92. The first time I moved to Europe, in 1966, the DM and SF were CA$0.25, the FF was CA$0.20. During my 20 years as a wine importer, the biggest risk was always the foreign exchange. Companies went under by being on the wrong side of a fluctuation.

When I bought my first canal boat in France, the deal was consummated in FF; when I sold it after many years of use, I was paid in Euros and I more than doubled-up when converted back to CA$. If I had chosen a different timing, the results might have as easily been the inverse.

Governments change, policies change, currencies fluctuate. It is not wise to gamble on foreign exchange unless you have sufficient wealth to influence the fluctuations. That eliminates virtually all of us.

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by DJBrookster

USD is in it's dying spiral. Yes it may survive a little longer, but as a reserve currency.....bye bye. Printed too many dollars and economy is screwed. China and Russia own your debt, your just Greece in the wings!!

This gets to the heart of the matter, and succinctly. It is only the status of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency that has kept it from a horrendous devaluation these past three years. It will be replaced as the reserve currency in time (probably sooner, rather than later) and then we will see the race to the bottom begin in earnest.

Interestingly, I just saw a statistic today that the US Federal Reserve has actually surpassed China as the top holder of US debt. The relevance of that should not be underestimated . . . any country that creates "money" out of thin air to buy it's own debt is already in a death spiral.

That the Euro may or may not be in the same condition is of little consequence, given the OP's question. If they're both circling the bowl, it hardly matters what ones relative value is vis-a-vis the other, and at that point, the quantity of Euros or US dollars required to purchase a catamaran is probably the least of anyone's worries.

TaoJones

[zeta]

Since we are all forecasting, I think maybe we should be talking about the renminbi, "the peoples currency". China is currently buying the world via bond purchases and has the man power to cash in. Just saying.

[AllezCat]

Another thing to consider is if the Euro collapses first - the seller may ask for payment in $US or?
But if you want to speculate - would only need $10k cash to control $1,000,000 on the typical forex account.
Sell EURO.USD pair. That "certain" 30% move will net you $300k - not bad for a 10k investment...
The only thing certain is we are in interesting times.

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by AllezCat

Another thing to consider is if the Euro collapses first - the seller may ask for payment in $US or?
But if you want to speculate - would only need $10k cash to control $1,000,000 on the typical forex account.
Sell EURO.USD pair. That "certain" 30% move will net you $300k - not bad for a 10k investment...
The only thing certain is we are in interesting times.

True . . . but a 1% move in the wrong direction will have wiped out the $10,000 investment. Could that happen? "Certain"-ly!

TaoJones

[rover88]

I don't like to brag but I happen to be a billionaire. In fact my current fortune is exactly twelve billion dollars. Now just because said fortune happens to be in Zimbabwean currency (worth a few beers at most) should not affect the respect and deference I deserve as a man of "means".

When I left Zimbabwe in 1980 Z$1.00 was worth US$1.50. Talk about useless paper money.