Hurricane Joaquin - head's up - Carolinas and Chesapeake

[estarzinger]

Currently forecast to make landfall (10/04 at 0900 UTC) with 80 kt sustained winds in the cape hatteras area. 50kts winds in the Bay and likely high surge because of easterly winds.

[brownoarsman]

This is pretty poor timing, coming the weekend before the boat show.

Besides stripping the windage from the boat and checking for chafe protection, does anyone have any suggestions, experience, or expectations for weathering a hurricane on a mooring in the Severn? I understand Round Bay is already a bit of a hurricane hole, but this will be my first one. I'll be asking around the neighborhood as well to see what others are doing. Thanks!


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[estarzinger]

^^ the key is to make sure you are set up to survive 10' of surge. Pilings high enough, lines tied so as to allow for that rise. Probably will not come to that, but it is possible given the current forecasts.

[brownoarsman]

Ahhh, the old surge. Sandbag the cottage or prep the boat, decisions decisions.

I'll put a little extra slack on the lines to the mooring ball and check again how much free chain I have, though I remember it being considerable. Thanks for the advice!


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[Sun and Moon]

I hid from Hurricane Sandy in the Dismal Swamp Canal. Ten feet up behind a lock, a narrow canal with overhanging trees - no waves and very little wind - Sandy was a non-event for me, but just 10 miles away people got hammered. It's not really very far from Annapolis.

[estarzinger]

just an update - forecast tracks changed noticeably on this morning's model runs . . . about half the models (and IMHO the more reliable half) now have it staying further east, offshore and not hitting the coast (except perhaps nova scotia or newfoundland). The other half continue to have it hitting the Carolina to hatteras coast line . . .so still wise to be prepared . Heavy rain and possible flooding in either case.

[MarkJ]

Hi Evans,

It must be difficult to predict movement when it still gave to turn around.
I am waiting to tonight. Then it should have turned.

The NHC model was moved east to be between the GFS and Euro model. So they are just hedging their bets.

A good video explanation
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[estarzinger]

^^ the euro and GFS models were (finally) decently consistent this morning, which IMHO is a sign that we can start taking some confidence in the track.

this is the historical track accuracy. it is nice to see how they have improved dramatically over time. The 4 day average track error is now 150miles.

[gsherwood]

Putting my Sirius 21 on the trailer. The boat landing is already underwater from all the rain we have had. Mackeys creek is a pretty sheltered but not worth risking it.
All you folks in the storms way stay safe.

[hamburking]

Originally Posted by brownoarsman

Besides stripping the windage from the boat and checking for chafe protection, does anyone have any suggestions, experience, or expectations for weathering a hurricane on a mooring ?

Look to windward...even if you are secure, other boats breaking free can damage your boat. Be a good neighbour and make sure your neighbours are ready too.

Also, close your sea cocks, and remove anything of great or sentimental value.

Take a lot of "before" pictures for your insurance company. Lets hope you won't need them, but with digital photography, why not take a ton?

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by estarzinger

^^ the euro and GFS models were (finally) decently consistent this morning, which IMHO is a sign that we can start taking some confidence in the track.

this is the historical track accuracy. it is nice to see how they have improved dramatically over time. The 4 day average track error is now 150miles.

Attachment 110294

It is still a crap shoot?

[ArmyDaveNY]

Call your insurance company and make sure you have the needed coverage. Sometimes it take 24 hours before the new updated coverage takes effect. If you wait until the last minute you may not be covered.

[Hudson Force]

Nancie and I left the Chesapeake earlier this week and crossed the Albemarle Sound yesterday. We're sitting in the Pungo River trying to decide where to hide just in case Joaquin takes the more westerly track. I'll choose one of the creeks that is protected from the east and for winds backing across to the north and west. I'm waiting for tomorrow's report before stripping off the windage.

[blueboyou]

Originally Posted by brownoarsman

This is pretty poor timing, coming the weekend before the boat show.

Besides stripping the windage from the boat and checking for chafe protection, does anyone have any suggestions, experience, or expectations for weathering a hurricane on a mooring in the Severn? I understand Round Bay is already a bit of a hurricane hole, but this will be my first one. I'll be asking around the neighborhood as well to see what others are doing. Thanks!


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Sorry, Round Bay is not a hurricane hole. The Severn River has lots of options, but if the USNA moves their sailboats to their moorings in place on several creeks i.e. Saltworks Creek, the options become more limited. If you go to Round Bay, go past St. Helena Island to Maynadier Creek. The depth is only 8-10 feet and you should have plenty of room to swing with fine holding in the mud. There are other options as well farther up the Severn.

[atexasex]

we're at Cobbs Marina on the Little Creek Inlet in Norfolk. Spent yesterday afternoon getting ready - doubling lines, removing Bimini, cockpit cushions, etc. On a brand new floating dock with tall pylons. Should be pretty safe unless a neighboring boat breaks loose...