I Think I Saw MH370

[Jess928]

Originally Posted by tomknack

From my house I can see the entire eastern sky with the commercial air routes up and down the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Sunrises are always amazing and surprising as the rising sun reflects on the high elevation objects, including contrails. Strategically placed clouds could completely block the light from reaching some objects while others, either higher or lower, are lit up in brilliant orange. Even earlier in the a.m., we can see the sun shining on satellites floating overhead while our sky is still completely dark. I'm thinking that this type of phenomenon is likely what Saucy saw.

I agree. I was thinking that the sun rising in the east was reflecting on a light coloured object (a/c or cloud) with a multi faceted surface giving the illusion of a reflected orange 'flicker'....

Thoughts?

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Jess928

Got to be careful how I phrase this for fear of misinterpretation....
Why would it not appear on Flight24Radar? Is it because you're thinking the ACARS and transponders were turned off? Would it be tracked by another method on Flight24Radar?....or the third ?aircraft? being a non commercial 'big boy' such as a military asset?

Yes, because the transponder was not transmitting.

To be pedantic, we don't know if the transponder was "turned off", failed, or was denied a power source etc but we do know that it wasn't transmitting . To be precise, there are two identical transponders on board but they are wired in such a way that only one can be operational at any one time. The other remains as a standby unit.

Back to flightradar24. This service gets aircraft positioning from ADS-B transmissions, MLAT and some (delayed) FAA data. In this part of the world, MLAT and FAA data is not applicable, so the only source is ADS-B. And ADS-B data can only be transmitted by the transponder which we know was not transmitting. Therefore, MH370 could not slow upon Flightradar24.

Trust this helps!

[Jess928]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Yes, because the transponder was not transmitting.

To be pedantic, we don't know if the transponder was "turned off", failed, or was denied a power source etc but we do know that it wasn't transmitting . To be precise, there are two identical transponders on board but they are wired in such a way that only one can be operational at any one time. The other remains as a standby unit.

Back to flightradar24. This service gets aircraft positioning from ADS-B transmissions, MLAT and some (delayed) FAA data. In this part of the world, MLAT and FAA data is not applicable, so the only source is ADS-B. And ADS-B data can only be transmitted by the transponder which we know was not transmitting. Therefore, MH370 could not slow upon Flightradar24.


Trust this helps!

Off topic slightly....but whoever deviated the flight path or for whatever reason the a/c deviated would suggest an intelligent input.
This would leave us with a visual sighting only for map referencing purposes such as Saucy's possible sighting. Curiouser and curiouser.

[SaucySailoress]

We have a lot of questions still... And some I don't recall answering before!

Originally Posted by rydberg

I have one question, still: was the glow constant, or was there anything in the image that night that seemed to flicker, or otherwise appear dynamic in nature? You have previously stated that the reason you thought the plane was on fire was because of the dark exhaust. Was there anything else?

Henrik

This I think I have addressed before. It was just a glow. I was looking intensely for the light source, and couldn't see one. I don't recall any flickering. I don't recall seeing any light from any windows, one reason I thought it might be a military/cargo plane.

Originally Posted by Jess928

Saucy,
ANY idea how long you observed this orange object for...seconds, ten minutes, an hour? Regardless of the boat's position, how long where you able to observe the other two aircraft further away?

Minutes. And, if I am correct in my current belief that I first saw the orange right after our accidental gybe and last saw it after I had put the engine on, then that would be a total time of 5 to ten minutes, and that feels about right.

The two higher aircraft I only observed for a few minutes... They were heading away when I first saw them and the orange plane. Plus they weren't interesting.

Originally Posted by probrt

This are two different flights.

They could be the ones then.

Originally Posted by Jess928

With reference to 3,5 &6; could the sunrise be reflecting off the smoke as it drifts in the inversion layer?

Saucy, did you have a commercial radio to listen to music on during the trip?

Thoughts

I don't think it was near sunrise. But perhaps it is possible that there was some light I wasn't aware of either from distant islands or those bright lights we passed, which I noted in a post describing some of the other unusual things we saw.

Radio, no. We don't allow the watchman to use any music or other devices on deck during night watch (much to our crew's consternation).

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Jess928

Off topic slightly....but whoever deviated the flight path or for whatever reason the a/c deviated would suggest an intelligent input.
This would leave us with a visual sighting only for map referencing purposes such as Saucy's possible sighting. Curiouser and curiouser.

While this is not the correct forum to discuss the reasons for the MH370 mystery, I will add the following as it somewhat pertains to Saucy's observations.

The only real facts are that MH370 deviated radically from it's standard flight path, the transponder(s) stopped transmitting and all voice comms ceased (all about the same time). The new flight path was tracked by primary radar for some time until the aircraft was out of primary radar coverage.

Now every possible explanation that fits the above facts are highly improbable.

The possibility that Saucy actually saw MH370 is also highly improbable but the important thing for this thread is that her potential sighting is no more improbable then the other improbable (but unknown) events that must have occurred.

Therefore all investigative work to verify (or not) what Saucy saw is very worthwhile - IMHO.

[Jess928]

Originally Posted by SaucySailoress

This is a flight path I created from what I saw, which I superimposed, in green, over a projected flight path from an anonymous source, according to last known radar positions and Inmarsat's first alleged ping. Clearly what I believe I saw can only be correct if the Inmarsat timings are out, since my believed track is from the perspective of the boat at that time. It would only fit if my sighting was around an hour later.

11.41: Edited to add in clarification of which is my track, and source of data for projection.

Saucy,
from what I understand now, each of the 'ping rings' a graduated in frequency much like a radio wave or a sea wave. Imagine a road with a pavement each side and a white line down the middle. The white line is the 'presented time' but it doesn't consider the time from the pavement to the white line and to the pavement on the other side. This can be 100 miles or more!

[Jess928]

Found an interesting piece of information about the ISS for you Saucy (International Space Station).
Have a look at #7 Urwumpe 08-16-2011 06:02pm
How does the ISS look like (naked eye from Earth) ? - Orbiter-Forum

Now take a look at this link which shows it's orbit over Great Nicobar. For it to fit, the ISS's orbit would need to be roughly Columbo to the south of Australia. It's the orbital track that's important here NOT the time shown in the image. The red circle denotes 10 degrees above horizon. Obviously the timed track denotes the ISS direction for approximately 6 minutes viewing time and the centre of the circle titled 'Great Nicobar' denotes directly above the head:
ISSTracker ~ Real-Time Location Tracking of the International Space Station

Thoughts?

[LCH77]

As covered in detail on Duncan Steel’s website (Passages of the International Space Station over MH370: Update 2 | Duncan Steel), the ISS’s orbit number 87562 began (equator around 90° East) at 07 March 2014 at 23:04:25 UTC (around dawn sailboat time probably making it visible) with its sub-orbital track pretty much following the sailboat’s track but was over Thailand 5 minutes later. The next orbit began (equator and 65°East) at around 00:37 UTC and flew over India. There are great maps showing a few of these orbits on Duncan Steel’s website.

All of this means is that people on the sailboat could have seen the ISS (weather permitting) but this passing was more than 5 hours after MH370 was estimated to be in that same area.

Also, I rather doubt that whatever Saucy saw was a reflection of anything from the sun as MH370 was on radar near MEKAR at about 1:20 AM sailboat time and the quarter moon had set just about the same time MH370 took-off so the moon couldn’t have contributed to any reflections either.

My hunch is Saucy saw MH370 but the GPS log is off by one hour.

[stewball5]

I believe it is time for me to share with this group the initial results of an analysis I have been doing on not only the entire MH370 flight profile, but also Saucy's sighting. I believe that she really did see MH370 and it was on fire caused by an engine failure.

I use several tools like Google Earth and MS Excel, but I also use an excellent simulation of the Boeing 777-200ER by X-Plane. I use the simulation to validate the flight profile time and distance calculations against aircraft performance. The simulation has excellent twin-engine performance very closely matching the real aircraft performance. When I fly the simulator, I have to fly it in real time and do not fly it manually. I fly it using the Flight Management Computer, the autopilot, and the auto throttles.

I have attached three figures for now. These figures are still work-in-progress. The first figure is an overview of the flight profile being use so far based on what I know and aircraft performance as validated on the simulator. Ignore the flight path south of the SELSU waypoint.

The second figure is the geometry of Saucy's observation. The figure shows MH370 going north to south from SAMAK and making a slight right turn at NOPEK. The timing is such that the plane begins passing the Aazu Dana at 1920 UTC. The white triangles represent the observation times along the plane's track as it passes from port to starboard across the stern. There is a one minute time period between observation times when Saucy went down below. The southern observation time period and geometry is such that to the eye, the plane seems to stay stationary in the horizontal, but changes elevation angles in the vertical. This figure will slightly change because the plane could not fly at 240 Knots True Airspeed (KTAS) as assumed, but with flaps up had to fly at least 270 KTAS.

Finally, I thought I'd share with you what a B777-200ER looks like just prior to takeoff at night at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. The plane is on the departure end of F runway 32R from which MH370 departed.

Cheers,
Stew

[Jess928]

Originally Posted by stewball5

I believe it is time for me to share with this group the initial results of an analysis I have been doing on not only the entire MH370 flight profile, but also Saucy's sighting. I believe that she really did see MH370 and it was on fire caused by an engine failure.

I use several tools like Google Earth and MS Excel, but I also use an excellent simulation of the Boeing 777-200ER by X-Plane. I use the simulation to validate the flight profile time and distance calculations against aircraft performance. The simulation has excellent twin-engine performance very closely matching the real aircraft performance. When I fly the simulator, I have to fly it in real time and do not fly it manually. I fly it using the Flight Management Computer, the autopilot, and the auto throttles.

I have attached three figures for now. These figures are still work-in-progress. The first figure is an overview of the flight profile being use so far based on what I know and aircraft performance as validated on the simulator. Ignore the flight path south of the SELSU waypoint.

The second figure is the geometry of Saucy's observation. The figure shows MH370 going north to south from SAMAK and making a slight right turn at NOPEK. The timing is such that the plane begins passing the Aazu Dana at 1920 UTC. The white triangles represent the observation times along the plane's track as it passes from port to starboard across the stern. There is a one minute time period between observation times when Saucy went down below. The southern observation time period and geometry is such that to the eye, the plane seems to stay stationary in the horizontal, but changes elevation angles in the vertical. This figure will slightly change because the plane could not fly at 240 Knots True Airspeed (KTAS) as assumed, but with flaps up had to fly at least 270 KTAS.

Finally, I thought I'd share with you what a B777-200ER looks like just prior to takeoff at night at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. The plane is on the departure end of F runway 32R from which MH370 departed.

Cheers,
Stew

Stew,
On your magic computer, plug in a Dornier DO228 flight from INZ Baaz on Great Nicobar to Pulau We on Sumatra and nearby localised airfields on that vector. Use the associated corridor and FL to gain info. Get back to me with flight durations, speeds, heights etc if you can.
Thanks

[Flight]

Stew, that's a lovely map and easier to understand for the less technically minded among us (myself)

I just wondered if it is worth assuming, for argument's sake, that Saucy did see MAS370.

And that the orange glow was caused by fire of some sort.

Could we extrapolate anything at all from this?

I think it's been discussed widely that a fire serious enough to cause a loss of communications instruments and so on would also, probably, be too serious for an aircraft to survive in terms of staying aloft for the subsequent 6 or 7 hours that we are led to believe MAS370 did.

However, there may be those who have their theories regarding this and I would be interested to hear them.

(Given that no windows were observed, is it reasonable to say that the orange glow was noticed around the plane, or was it more that the whole thing appeared orange, all over?)

[stewball5]

Originally Posted by Jess928

Stew,
On your magic computer, plug in a Dornier DO228 flight from INZ Baaz on Great Nicobar to Pulau We on Sumatra and nearby localised airfields on that vector. Use the associated corridor and FL to gain info. Get back to me with flight durations, speeds, heights etc if you can.
Thanks

Jess928, sorry I don't have a Dornier DO228. Besides, all my efforts are geared toward trying to find MH370.

Regards,
Stew

[kayej1188]

Maybe something like this is what Saucy saw..(Check the picture, the story itself is a year old but its conceivable something of this sort was occurring at the time?)
U.S., Russian and European Crew Completes Express Soyuz Flight to the International Space Station | On Space

[Jess928]

Originally Posted by stewball5

Jess928, sorry I don't have a Dornier DO228. Besides, all my efforts are geared toward trying to find MH370.

Regards,
Stew

I appreciate that Stew. I know Dornier 228's operate from INZ Baaz and was wondering if it fitted Saucy's observation NOT the MH370 flight profile. It looks like it could fit the same flight time, vector and height as Saucy's orange sighting? Is the route east of Great Nicobar FL90?

[probrt]

Originally Posted by SaucySailoress

They could be the ones then.

I doubt - at that time (19:45) MH370 was already beyond 19:41 Inmarsat arc.

I think seeing at 20:10-20:20 is more likely: there were at least 2 planes heading NW at that time.
MH370 would have to flew to Andaman islands, hit the 19:41 arc there, and then turn south for this scenario.

Inmarsat in early stage of investigation stated, that MH370 flew over Andaman Islands and then went south:

INMARSAT Official MH370 Flew Over Andaman Islands Then Went South - YouTube