I Think I Saw MH370

[SaucySailoress]

Ok, magnetic course. The GPS corrects to true north. We never worry about that as we sail, since whether we are hand steering or auto steering, we set our compass course to whatever brings our heading onto the closest GPS course.

The differences that those few degrees would make to any sightings are quite irrelevant, tho, given that a few degrees in our course won't make much difference, plus I haven't got a clue as to WHEN I saw what I saw, and if I was heading north at the time, then my thoughts at the time about why it was heading south over the ocean are irrelevant and wrong, and it was heading towards Indonesia. That gives credence to the firefighting plane theory.

[chris_gee]

There seems to be some confusion entering into this discussion and perhaps a clarification of some of the basics may help some because most of us don’t actually use this stuff much.
Firstly UTC starts from the prime meridian where longtitude 0 is set as passing through the Royal Observatory Greenwich and the poles. Time is based at this. So at midnight there proceeding east the sun rises earlier relative to Greenwich. Because a sphere has 360 degrees and there are 24 hours in a day there is 1 hour change per 360/24 ie 15 degrees.
NZ is on 172E roughlt utc +11.5. It uses +12. Malaysia uses +8 Thailand +7 India including the Andaman Islands plus 5.5. Generally countries use whole numbers.
How the Garmin chart plotter works is unclear. It could in fact work on degrees and part degrees or in whole hours. So if the yacht’s position was N 6 37.075 E 94 26.577 it would be roughly UTC +6 hours 18 minutes.
Pattaya the destination port is 100 55’ E. However most of the country is further east so it uses time zone UST +7 while strictly it is close to +6 hrs 44 minutes.
The OP said it was set to Thailand time UST +7 and did so automatically. But it had no reason to set to this until it was well ashore in Thailand because it was in +6.
Now maybe it has settings that can be chosen to give local time at the destination or local time of the country in whose territorial waters one is. For coastal cruising one might use local time including daylight saving time. For international cruising one might use destination time, or more likely set it automatically according to longitude.
That would mean instead of adding 7 hours one added 6 hours 18 minutes which probably makes the sighting fit in with the expected times.
They also have a ship’s clock set to a different time. To check what the settings are on this plotter one would do a forensic analysis, i.e check without altering. One could check the time in the current location on the plotter and also back track to see if the time changes and how on traversing from say E 89 59 to E 90 01. I suspect it won’t change by an hour.
Some of the pilots elsewhere have said a fire may leave parts of the electrical system intact, and in any event the engines would remain running so the plane could fly itself for some hours before running out of fuel.
Once a waypoint is reached and flight continues I gather if I recall correctly that it can turn to a previous magnetic heading. If that was roughly south since the magnetic and geographical poles don’t align the true course changes quite a bit as the plane moves south. I don’t recall the exact figures but they seemed to increase the further south one went. In my location the magnetic deviation is 18 deg E. That will be familiar to most sailors but not all.
Finally the OP is clear in her mind the direction of the plane’s crossing. That may well be so but it is a recollection after some days or months.

[clownfishsydney]

If the track from the GPS is examined, the date and time especially, it will be obvious if the GPS automatically changes its time zone as it moves east. There would a time when it all of a sudden changed an hour. In addition, if the OP knows what time they arrived in Thailand, it should be possible to back track to see if the time zone was correct. In my experience, GPS units sometimes need to be manually set to the zone, but I am not sure about plotters as we have not used outside our zone.

[Jess928]

Originally Posted by mister_g

I don't disagree with your logic, but I think it mainly serves to show that there are a near infinite number of solutions to making the plane pass through the 'ping rings' at the correct time, some of which have the plane in Saucy's general area at roughly the correct time, so it is very difficult to rule a possible sighting out.

The number of solutions can be narrowed down through detailed knowledge of the plane's performance capabilities (min/max speed), fuel consumption, etc. and the doppler data (BFO) from the satellite contacts, but any flight path is speculative and only arrived at by making *ASSUMPTIONS* about what the plane did in the mean time (constant speed? constant heading? one turn? two turns? more?, etc..). No doubt the ATSB are looking at possible scenarios, and Saucy's observation may well help re-inforce other information and narrow down the current search area.

Also, if one gives credence to the early ping rings (and I have no reason to question them), then one should also give credence to subsequent ones which, several hours later, and even with the most contrived flight path, put the plane at the very least 800nm away from Saucy & Marc.

Too long, didn't read? - Speculation is pointless without the very detailed information to narrrow down the possibilities.

I agree, there are a number of assumptions I used but it was derived from the 'given' information of the flight path in green. An average was taken of the a/c in transit cruise of weight, speed, air density etc. This was then extrapolated from its last known position to follow the purple and yellow lines (possible flight paths).

The purple and yellow lines assumed the original calculational averages and transgressed the 'ping' lines at the prescribed times by Inmarsat.

If Saucy saw a flaming aircraft at approximately 15,000ft asl, then the impact point would be within 5-20 miles of her sighting. If she saw an intact aircraft aircraft with engine failure, it would be further.....

[Jess928]

Originally Posted by kayej1188

Firstly, I'd just like to say to Behoerde that "counter-clockwise" is the word you were looking for.

Jess, the assumptions about the planes course that you used to suggest that the plane may have been close to the boat at 18:55 UTC are extremely unlikely-- It's even conceivable that the track is physically impossible. I commend your ambition and thinking outside of the box, but those flight paths, as far as I'm aware, are erroneous. I think that after all the analysis done on this forum regarding the planes track and position relative to the boat at the time of the sighting (18:45 UTC), there are a few safe conclusions that can be made, and a few more that need further investigation. It's safe to say that the plane was nowhere near the boat at 19:41 UTC, hundred of miles south. The 2 most important facts to flesh out are 1) Make absolutely positive that the time correlations (UTC, local time) are 100% accurate. It seems that this has been given a lot of thought already, but it's definitely worth going back and checking on to make it absolutely certain that we are working with accurate times. 2) Make absolutely positive that the boat headings at the various times are 100% accurate. This too, is make or break. Minor variations in heading can make this sighting credible, and visa versa. I think once these 2 things are completely worked out to the best, and most accurate knowledge of those who were on the boat, it will be relatively simple to figure out whether this was feasible or not. The planes track is not something we fiddle around with, and I think it's best to go with the published most conceivable flight track released by the NTSB.

Why are the flights paths unlikely and physically impossible? If the Inmarsat data is to be believed then the aircraft flew on for several more hours granted and it is unlikely that Saucy saw MH370 in its last death throws.
I do agree though that further clinical investigation needs to be done with the GPS system on the boat as well as a finite understanding of UTC protocols. Unless the GPS has been physically corrupted (unlikely), this is the only fixed evidential constant that can be relied upon at present until another third party steps forward.
The planes flight track can be manipulated internally but has a fail safe 'fly further' system on board in case of structural compromise. This is what makes me think that why after take off, the a/c flew above its cabin pressure rating and then back down again to cruise alt for several hours using various rough waypoints/service corridors along the way.

More investigation needed on my part.

[MAP Waves]

Originally Posted by chris_gee

a sphere has 360 degrees and there are 24 hours in a day there is 1 hour change per 360/24 ie 15 degrees.
NZ is on 172E roughlt utc +11.5. It uses +12. Malaysia uses +8 Thailand +7 India including the Andaman Islands plus 5.5. Generally countries use whole numbers.
How the Garmin chart plotter works is unclear. It could in fact work on degrees and part degrees or in whole hours.

I have had no response back from Garmin to my below email of the 10th, it is only 2 days now.

"I have an issue about the time zone map and how I can see from the track the actual timestamp as opposed to the computer or computer offset timezone for the trapezoid N06 28.7 E93 45.8 , N05 53.8 E93 45.8, N06 53.2 E95 13.6 and N06 08.2 E95 13.6. There appears to be confusion as 3 time zones are possible here depending on sources??"

[Jess928]

I'm very mindful of clogging this excellent forum with unnecessary clutter but on this occasion, it's a valid map for saucy and Marc.
In my environment the terms 'out and return', out and out', 'point to point' may be similar to the sailors parlance?
Note each particular 'leg' and it's direction to a beacon on the air map I've supplied. It shows beacons that aircraft use for guidance. The red line indicates the known flight path.
Earlier I suggested that if a constant was used for the a/c using this given track together with the Inmarsat data (incorporating Doppler Effect) ping times, then MH370 could very well have passed very close to Saucy's location.

Please be mindful that I AM NOT trying to make ambiguous information fit Saucy's observance. I am mealy presenting factual and extrapolated information based on facts known.

The last known position of the a/c was heading approx 310 degrees towards VOPD where it then must veer to meet the Inmarsat 'ping'. This brings the a/c on a direct vector towards the boat before it locks onto (?) NOPEK

http://airinfodotorg.files.wordpress...0-11-55-54.png

[MAP Waves]

Originally Posted by chris_gee

There seems to be some confusion entering into this discussion and perhaps a clarification of some of the basics may help some because most of us don’t actually use this stuff much.
Firstly UTC starts from the prime meridian where longtitude 0 is set as passing through the Royal Observatory Greenwich and the poles. Time is based at this. So at midnight there proceeding east the sun rises earlier relative to Greenwich. Because a sphere has 360 degrees and there are 24 hours in a day there is 1 hour change per 360/24 ie 15 degrees.
NZ is on 172E roughlt utc +11.5. It uses +12. Malaysia uses +8 Thailand +7 India including the Andaman Islands plus 5.5. Generally countries use whole numbers.
How the Garmin chart plotter works is unclear. It could in fact work on degrees and part degrees or in whole hours. So if the yacht’s position was N 6 37.075 E 94 26.577 it would be roughly UTC +6 hours 18 minutes.
Pattaya the destination port is 100 55’ E. However most of the country is further east so it uses time zone UST +7 while strictly it is close to +6 hrs 44 minutes.
The OP said it was set to Thailand time UST +7 and did so automatically. But it had no reason to set to this until it was well ashore in Thailand because it was in +6.
Now maybe it has settings that can be chosen to give local time at the destination or local time of the country in whose territorial waters one is. For coastal cruising one might use local time including daylight saving time. For international cruising one might use destination time, or more likely set it automatically according to longitude.
That would mean instead of adding 7 hours one added 6 hours 18 minutes which probably makes the sighting fit in with the expected times.
They also have a ship’s clock set to a different time. To check what the settings are on this plotter one would do a forensic analysis, i.e check without altering. One could check the time in the current location on the plotter and also back track to see if the time changes and how on traversing from say E 89 59 to E 90 01. I suspect it won’t change by an hour.
Some of the pilots elsewhere have said a fire may leave parts of the electrical system intact, and in any event the engines would remain running so the plane could fly itself for some hours before running out of fuel.
Once a waypoint is reached and flight continues I gather if I recall correctly that it can turn to a previous magnetic heading. If that was roughly south since the magnetic and geographical poles don’t align the true course changes quite a bit as the plane moves south. I don’t recall the exact figures but they seemed to increase the further south one went. In my location the magnetic deviation is 18 deg E. That will be familiar to most sailors but not all.
Finally the OP is clear in her mind the direction of the plane’s crossing. That may well be so but it is a recollection after some days or months.

Originally Posted by MAP Waves

I have had no response back from Garmin to my below email of the 10th, it is only 2 days now.

"I have an issue about the time zone map and how I can see from the track the actual timestamp as opposed to the computer or computer offset timezone for the trapezoid N06 28.7 E93 45.8 , N05 53.8 E93 45.8, N06 53.2 E95 13.6 and N06 08.2 E95 13.6. There appears to be confusion as 3 time zones are possible here depending on sources??"

An email I have just received - NOT FROM GARMIN

Thanks for log.

I converted it with gpsbabel (GPSBabel: convert, upload, download data from GPS and Map programs) to text format with UTC date/time and can confirm that table in post #394 is correct.

Regards,
Bert

[chris_gee]

Now maybe I am confused. Reading one of the Garmin manuals it refers to choosing UST 12 or 24 hr time format. It also refers to setting a time zone and DST. Presumably that is for local cruising where local time may not strictly be UST plus a longitude correction.
It is not made explicit how time is entered in the first place. That is one might enter local time plus a time zone but that does not give always an accurate UST time. It would be easier for most to enter local time, both because the main use would be local and it would be more easily known.
Comparing times internationally across borders it is easier to stick to UST as the current time in Greenwich is the same regardless of Thai or Malaysian or even ship time.
Having gone back through the thread the original printed version of the log was in either Thai time or maybe ship time. As I understand it Saucy said both it automatically updated and was in Thai time i.e. +7. I wonder if both can be true. That is either one sets the time zone and it remains or it updates the local ie ship time with changing position, probably not by country but by longitude.
How then is the UST set in the unit? Is it set initially by the manufacturer or by the user or is it derived from the satellite signals which include it the slight differences between satellite transmission times being used to calculate position.
The later written log gives the times in UST and I accept that these match the times stored in the machine.
We still do not know the time basis for the crew to be on watch from 2-6 am. If that was Thai time then 2 am equates to 1900 UST and the issue of crossing angle and the immarsat fix remain.
I think I would prefer to check the course log for an hour before, because I suspect it may be possible to resolve the several potential sources of confusion

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by chris_gee

Now maybe I am confused. Reading one of the Garmin manuals it refers to choosing UST 12 or 24 hr time format. It also refers to setting a time zone and DST. Presumably that is for local cruising where local time may not strictly be UST plus a longitude correction.
It is not made explicit how time is entered in the first place. That is one might enter local time plus a time zone but that does not give always an accurate UST time. It would be easier for most to enter local time, both because the main use would be local and it would be more easily known.
Comparing times internationally across borders it is easier to stick to UST as the current time in Greenwich is the same regardless of Thai or Malaysian or even ship time.
Having gone back through the thread the original printed version of the log was in either Thai time or maybe ship time. As I understand it Saucy said both it automatically updated and was in Thai time i.e. +7. I wonder if both can be true. That is either one sets the time zone and it remains or it updates the local ie ship time with changing position, probably not by country but by longitude.
How then is the UST set in the unit? Is it set initially by the manufacturer or by the user or is it derived from the satellite signals which include it the slight differences between satellite transmission times being used to calculate position.
The later written log gives the times in UST and I accept that these match the times stored in the machine.
We still do not know the time basis for the crew to be on watch from 2-6 am. If that was Thai time then 2 am equates to 1900 UST and the issue of crossing angle and the immarsat fix remain.
I think I would prefer to check the course log for an hour before, because I suspect it may be possible to resolve the several potential sources of confusion

Garmin GPS engines (and all other GPS engines AFIK) get their time signal from the GPS satellite constellations. This is commonly called GPS time but for all intends and purposes, it is UTC plus / minus a couple of milliseconds.

UTC = UTS = Greenwich = Zulu = GPS time (almost).

You can enter your local time and any DST if you want and have the time shown on the screen as local (or whatever else you want).

But the GPS works in GPS time as it's standard and that comes from the satellites.

[Jess928]

This is a possible explanation for you Saucy/Marc:

1. There is a Coast Guard School at Campbell Bay on Great Nicobar Island that is used as a command centre for oil spills. As it is predominantly an Indian military island, civilian access is limited because of it's 'biosphere' status. Only the indiginious populus live there with limited outside contact. Because of this, the island's contigency plans for oil spills are varied but do include the use of aircraft from various countries including the Thai military uder an international agreement. These aircraft are used for oil dispercent purposes as part of exercise/drills/actual depending on severity of the incident (see Page 12, section 6, paragraph f. of the linked document):
http://indiancoastguard.nic.in/Indiancoastguard/NOSDCP/Contingency%20Plan/DHQ%2010.pdf

The installation at Campbell Bay (or INS Baaz) is being enhanced at present and the runway lengthened from 4,000ft which currently allows only Indian Coastguard a/c access. It is undergoing a substantial rebuild which includes lengthening of the runway to allow much larger transport aircraft such as the Hercules C130J to operate from there more effectively. Part of their oil spill and firefighting systems include a procurement of MAFF systems utilising their own C130J a/c in the near future. At the moment under the agreement with other countries, foreign aircraft such as the one from the Thai military are used to help with the issues of forest fires whilst the Indian military procure type specific aircraft.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Baaz

2. MAFFS aircraft (Modular Airborne Fire Fighting System) such as the Hercules C130J from the Thai Military's 601 Transport Squadron could have quite feasably been on a localised firefighting/oil dispersant training exercise around the time of your sighting. This link shows the US version:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modular_Airborne_FireFighting_System#mediaviewer/File:C130_MAFFS_Black-Crater-Fire.jpeg

Here are some alternate aerial fire fighting platforms:
http://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A2KLqIgJ3ZpT7jEALZl2BQx.;_ylu=X3oDMTBzN2 0xdGhuBHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDdmlkBHZ0aWQDBGdwb3MDNTE-?p=fire+fighting+aircraft+in+California&vid=2ff697 91d81b7ea2a6efe78b90d49733&l=00%3A31&turl=http%3A% 2F%2Fts2.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DVN.60805454480068 0165%26pid%3D15.1&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.co m%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DGbwR2Q6K-Uw&tit=10+Tanker+Drop+in+2011+Canyon+Fire&c=20&sig r=11aksp6ai&sigt=112uocmqm&age=0&b=31&hsimp=yhs-default&hspart=aztec&type=ds_100_476&tt=b

...and another:
http://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A2KLqIlD3ppT.BAAE2Z2BQx.;_ylu=X3oDMTB0dm E0NTUzBHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDdmlkBHZ0aWQDBGdwb3MDMTUy?p=f ire+fighting+aircraft+in+California&vid=58c84284a0 008f907699098b479e6a8a&l=1%3A45&turl=http%3A%2F%2F ts2.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DVN.608005882816168753% 26pid%3D15.1&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fw atch%3Fv%3D-ickZ1HBaPU&tit=DC-10+bombs+Little+Bear+Fire&c=1&sigr=11anucohd&sigt= 10sqjqang&age=115386385195&b=151&hsimp=yhs-default&hspart=aztec&type=ds_100_476&tt=b

Thoughts Saucy/Marc?

[probrt]

SaucySailoress wrote, there were two other planes, passing higher and moving in other direction (NW).

I checked at flightradar24.com and planes heading NW were:
UAE343, passing around 18:45 UTC
UAE405, passing around 19:05 UTC
UAE435, passing around 19:25 UTC
QTR945 and SIA346, passing around 19:45 UTC
SIA422, SIA402 and SIA306, passing around 20:10 UTC

But I don't know if fligthradar24 covers all flights.

[Jess928]

This would give credence to the 'firefighting' aircraft scenario...

Dated 11 February 2014:
Asia's second-largest pulp and paper maker (APRIL)...reported 55 fires near its plantations in the first five weeks of the year (2014).
APRIL warns of early start to Sumatra forest fire season with 55 blazes in first five weeks of 2014

Dated 13 June 2014:
'Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency is now planning to send planes in to water-bomb the area to help extinguish the flames, and is even considering the use of cloud-seeding equipment to produce clouds of rain over the fires.'
Singapore Haze: Military Planes Used to Tackle Indonesian Fires

[Jess928]

Originally Posted by probrt

SaucySailoress wrote, there were two other planes, passing higher and moving in other direction (NW).

I checked at flightradar24.com and planes heading NW were:
UAE343, passing around 18:45 UTC
UAE405, passing around 19:05 UTC
UAE435, passing around 19:25 UTC
QTR945 and SIA346, passing around 19:45 UTC
SIA422, SIA402 and SIA306, passing around 20:10 UTC

But I don't know if fligthradar24 covers all flights.

This link shows the flight routes for Saucy's particular area:
https://skyvector.com/?ll=5.51694444...art=302&zoom=3

[SaucySailoress]

Originally Posted by chris_gee

As I understand it Saucy said both it automatically updated and was in Thai time i.e. +7. I wonder if both can be true.

It updates to local time automatically. I don't recall it ever going beyond UST +7. I don't recall when it switched to UST +7, but I am pretty sure it didn't revert to Indian time (UST 5.5) at any time, even when South of Nicobars. Besides, the UCT times correlate to UST +7 at that point of the track.

Originally Posted by chris_gee

We still do not know the time basis for the crew to be on watch from 2-6 am.

We didn't have a fixed watch system. When one was tired on watch, we'd wake the next person to come up, and we have no record of who's watch was when.

Originally Posted by chris_gee

I think I would prefer to check the course log for an hour before, because I suspect it may be possible to resolve the several potential sources of confusion

If you send a PM to Marc with your email address, we can send through the entire track in its original Garmin form, we have been sharing this openly. I believe the whole log has been uploaded in excel format in UCT, but I can't remember which post number. The reason for the excel file is that we are limited as to the file types we can upload here.



About the firefighting planes, if that turns out to be what it was, then I will be relieved to hold up my hands and accept I am wrong in what I believe now, but was right in not being overly concerned at the time. But are these craft really likely to glow orange and fly without other nav lights?