Yachting FAIL - Jessica Watson

[fabian1956]

Seems there is a positive thread already...

http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f106/jessica-not-fail-31562.html

Um... not sure I would title it that way but the contents is promising.

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by fabian1956

I have attached a GRIB chart that shows the area from Southport to Sydney and the expected winds offshore as compared to inshore and over land.... Mark, as an experienced sailor I would expect you would have known better!

Fabian

I was going on the actual obs, forecasts and warnings from the bureau of meteorology not a Grib file (undated). If their observations & warnings were not correct I think you should take it up with the government.


This isn't Orwells 1984. I aint making it up. Nor is the Bureau of Meteorology, I would have thought.

Mark

[Factor]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I aint making it up. Nor is the Bureau of Meteorology, I would have thought.[/FONT][/COLOR]

Mark

Yeah??? - I mean I am not having a go at BOM, but their forecasts and even their obs are usually only vaguely what I am seeing at the same location. I find Seabreeze.com.au to have a far more accurate model, - but hey thats just my direct experience.

Short story is I rely on Seabreeze more than BOM, though I have a healthy respect for what they tell me as well.

[MarkJ]

Crikey, so not only am I pariah against this kid but the government is getting in on the act by cooking the reports by the Bureau of Meteorology?

This stuff is getting insane.

[osirissail]

We call government "cooking the reports" = "Spin" in the USA. It is a very real factor. But as far at the Met Office reports - remember they are "spot" reports at one specific geographical location and the atmosphere of this planet is a boiling mess of currents, whorls, eddies, and three-dimensional movement. What winds exist at deck level are very different that what exists at the top of your mast which is why we use different control lines to adjust sail twist and sheeting. The famous "around the bouys" races are a good example of how a minute or two or a few hundred yards difference can yield good or bad wind conditions to the racers. So everybody could be correct and nobody wrong as there are no actual reports exactly where Jessica is located - only reports from "some" distance away. Forecasts are notoriously wrong and usually by one "notch" lower than what you actually experience out on the water - at least that seems to be the case with NOAA forecast reports.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by osirissail

... So everybody could be correct and nobody wrong as there are no actual reports exactly where Jessica is located - only reports from "some" distance away...

We DO have specific, if general, reports from Jessica.
“Last night the wind got up to 33 knots but there was also a very heavy swell about four to five metres”

[fabian1956]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I was going on the actual obs, forecasts and warnings from the bureau of meteorology not a Grib file (undated). If their observations & warnings were not correct I think you should take it up with the government.Mark

My point exactly. If the observations were 10 miles off the coast they would have been relevant. As the BOM weather stations are land based in some cases not even close to the sea they are not what is being experienced by sailors some distance out trying to gain best advantage from the current. Further the GRIB image is to illustrate this point not attempting to say it was what Jessica sailed thru. It was clearly stated the image was for later in the week. I'll quote ...

"I don’t have the file for the period Jessica was sailing but this is indicative of wind patterns in this season. This image is actually for later this week"

... this clearly explains why the file was there and not suggesting this was what Jessica experienced, but note the difference in wind speed between where the BOM stations are, mostly on the coast and conditions some distance out.

I find that reading a GRIB file gives a much better account and understanding of what is likely to happen in an area over a range of time.

To sum it up... the OBS and the forecast are probably both correct as the forecast specifically states an area along the coast and a distance seaward. The forecast wind speeds and sea state are going to be somewhere in that designated area but unlikely to be at shore based weather station which in the case of Port Macquarie from memory is at the airport several kilometres from the seashore. I have experienced 35 knot winds sailing between Camden Haven and Port Macquarie only to find the observations at the airport never got over 15 knots. This happens more than you would expect along the NSW coast. Check the difference between Lake Macquarie and Nobbies head for an even better example of this.

It’s late, I’m tired so this will be my adios and last post here. Tomorrow I’ll be in search of news and good spirited discussion on that other thread where the participants are actually interested in Jessica’s adventure and progress rather than this negative guff reborn and rehashed… same old … same old

Fabian

[osirissail]

- - by actual reports I mean reports generated by automated instruments such as weather bouys or weather stations. Ship reports tend to be a little higher than actual conditions as we "perceive" the situation rather than actually measure. Wind reports depend greatly upon what quarter the wind is on. Wave reports are really much like the fisherman's report of the size of his fish. . . However 4 to 5 meter "swells" are not uncommon in the Pacific especially when you get closer to the south pole. So as I said probably everybody is correct in one fashion or another. Anyway those conditions are not particularly challenging given the geographical location on the planet.
- - Maybe with the "do-goody goody" folks leaving to the other cheering section thread, we can get back to some honest discussion of the various aspects and considerations and technical aspects of sailing solo around the world like Jessica is trying to do. I never was one for being in a cheerleader crowd. I like discussing the finer achievements and techniques sportsmen/sportswomen use to win or lose.

[surfingminniwinni]

Originally Posted by osirissail

- - by actual reports I mean reports generated by automated instruments such as weather bouys or weather stations. Ship reports tend to be a little higher than actual conditions as we "perceive" the situation rather than actually measure. Wind reports depend greatly upon what quarter the wind is on. Wave reports are really much like the fisherman's report of the size of his fish. . . However 4 to 5 meter "swells" are not uncommon in the Pacific especially when you get closer to the south pole. So as I said probably everybody is correct in one fashion or another. Anyway those conditions are not particularly challenging given the geographical location on the planet.
- - Maybe with the "do-goody goody" folks leaving to the other cheering section thread, we can get back to some honest discussion of the various aspects and considerations and technical aspects of sailing solo around the world like Jessica is trying to do. I never was one for being in a cheerleader crowd. I like discussing the finer achievements and techniques sportsmen/sportswomen use to win or lose.

Yes us do-goody folks, will try and be positive. Hahahahaha honest discussion in this thread. Yes so much honest discussion about the technical aspects of Jessica's appearance, age, parents, supporters. More like sexist comments made by old men whom feel their manhood is threatened by a talented, intelligent young women.
I was never one for following media hype, which feeds on negativity, that is why I will go off and become a do-goody type.

Cheers,

Glenn

[cat man do]

Anyone see the news report last night where she stood up to wave at the helicopter?
Boom came across and brushed, if not hit her in the head.

Lucky it was only light air.


Later on when they were filming her parked at a Marina somewhere she had a trip and stumble over some deckfittings or rope.


Sure, I've done things like this as well, but you need to be careful Jessica, there wont be any help close at hand where you are going and no one to turn the boat around to pick you up.

Oh, 2 threads now?

So does this mean that we can only post here if we want her to fail?
If so I'd best post on the other one from now on as I don't want here to fail.

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by cat man do

Oh, 2 threads now?

So does this mean that we can only post here if we want her to fail?
If so I'd best post on the other one from now on as I don't want here to fail.

I didn't see this thread as a battle between pro or con, lots of genuine concern and curiousity mixed up with even more chewing the fat

But given we now have a "Go Jessica!" thread maybe their is a call for a thread specifically for those wishing to knock Jessica's endeavour...........maybe titled "Jessica's Knockers"? .

But whatever, I am simply grateful she never chose a multihull - now, that would've got ugly

[c-kow]

you know
I think she'll be fine

because she'll have a lot of time to learn, and even if things go bad, she'll have enough people watching her back to rescue her

[Lodesman]

That sort of positivity belongs on the other thread.

[osirissail]

Originally Posted by Lodesman

That sort of positivity belongs on the other thread.

- - I will second that!
- - There will be nobody, nada, zip, out there in the roaring 40's to "watch her back and rescue her." You only need to read the stories/reports of the other young people who preceded her around the world to get a good idea of what she will be facing. They made it alive, so it is not impossible, it is just a real life challenge that will test her resolve, skills, boat, and maybe even luck.
- - The first real challenges will be after she has looped the equator and is back heading south towards Cape Horn. Even in the professional round the world races there are some who disappear there or have serious boat failures and must limp to a port. Who was that French woman, excellent sailor in the huge racing boats who tried twice and couldn't make it around? I think there was a big ruckus as an Italian refused to go back for her and another racer had to divert to rescue her.

[Hurricane Harry]

I dont think shes to young. But I think shes a little late in season./ Harry