Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooling

[SailOar]

Some Whales Like Global Warming Just Fine | National Geographic

In May 2009, Ari Friedlaender, an ecologist with Oregon State University’s Marine Mammal Institute, was cruising along the Western Antarctic Peninsula when he encountered something he’d never seen. In Wilhelmina Bay, the water was so thick with humpback whales that “we couldn’t count them fast enough,” he recalls.

In the end, he and his colleagues counted 306 whales feeding on an immense aggregation of krill. It was the highest density of humpbacks ever documented in the region.

The humpback population has been recovering ever since commercial hunting was banned in 1966. But the whales are also being helped by another factor: climate change.

In the past, there wouldn’t have been any humpbacks at all in Wilhelmina Bay in May, because the sea would have been covered with ice. The whales typically departed their feeding grounds along the Western Antarctic Peninsula by April, migrating thousands of miles north to spend the winter breeding in tropical waters.

But the sea ice is now advancing nearly two months later than it did in the 1970s and retreating a month earlier. Humpbacks can now stay in the Antarctic much later in the season and follow the krill moving inshore in large aggregations. Since that 2009 expedition, Friedlaender has been hearing the whales sing late in the season, a sign that they might be starting to breed right in Antarctic waters, without waiting to migrate north. That would be a fundamental change in their life history.[...]

In the North Pacific off British Columbia, the humpback population has been growing steadily at a rate of about 7 percent per year and is now estimated at more than 21,000 animals. Two years ago the Canadian government downlisted the population from “threatened” to “species of special concern.” [...]

“Recovering populations of summer whales are taking advantage of a productive and more open Arctic,” says Sue Moore, a biological oceanographer with the Marine Ecosystems Division at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The retreat and the thinning of the sea ice, she says, has led to increased and earlier blooms of microscopic plant plankton. They in turn feed an increase in the tiny crustaceans—copepods and krill—that feed the whales.

Like their Antarctic relatives, the North Pacific humpbacks are staying late on the Arctic feeding grounds. “They might be up there still in November,” Moore says, “when people in Hawaii are starting to think that humpbacks should be coming down their way for mating.” [...]

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by SailOar

According to your graph the rate of sea level rise is increasing. I think that is a big concern to some scientists.

Yes. Of the 26 universal constants (Thanks Gord!), sea levels are not one of them. I think that is a big concern to some scientists.

[GoingWalkabout]

So yesterday was unusually warm here in Patagonia. Locals are saying the weather is not normally this warm for this time of year. Today it is cold. So we have global warming one day and global cooling the next. Go figure.

As for the rising of the sea levels. Makes a good argument to buy boat.

But you know in all seriousness I lay asleep at night because of global cooling. I really don't like the cold unless I'm hunting, fishing or skiing.

ps: laying asleep at night was an intentional twist of words to emphasize in a humorous way that I sleep soundly and that I don't lay awake at night worrying about cm's here or there. Especially when those doing the measuring have been proven to be untrustworthy.

[SV THIRD DAY]

Hint to a rising sea level....

[newhaul]

OK I'm not going to quote anyone specific the charts and graphs on sea rise I personally don't see any here over the last 40 years that I have the memory to comment on . The chart posted by reef would be more inline with my observations a rise in 140 years of about 8 to 10 inches would be reasonable . The 2+ feet in 100 years jack stated seems to not be inline with observations of the tidal gages nor inline with the satalite data.
A thought came to me last night that I will investigate further ( requires I talk with the astrophysics lab at the university of Washington . I will post my findings at a later date.)
Has to do with lunar position and tidal flow. Thereby affecting measurements.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

OK I'm not going to quote anyone specific the charts and graphs on sea rise I personally don't see any here over the last 40 years that I have the memory to comment on . The chart posted by reef would be more inline with my observations a rise in 140 years of about 8 to 10 inches would be reasonable . The 2+ feet in 100 years jack stated seems to not be inline with observations of the tidal gages nor inline with the satalite data.
A thought came to me last night that I will investigate further ( requires I talk with the astrophysics lab at the university of Washington . I will post my findings at a later date.)
Has to do with lunar position and tidal flow. Thereby affecting measurements.

I cherry picked that location, just as the WUWT poster did. It is not representative of the global mean sea level rise.

Quite frankly, I am surprised that an experienced sailor has to ask someone else about the effect of lunar position on tidal heights.

Start here: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/education.html

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

I cherry picked that location, just as the WUWT poster did. It is not representative of the global mean sea level rise.

Quite frankly, I am surprised that an experienced sailor has to ask someone else about the effect of lunar position on tidal heights.

Start here: Education - NOAA Tides & Currents

No jack I know how tides are affected on a day to day bais I'm thinking on a longer term considering the distance from the earth to the moon is increasing by approx 3.5 cm per year. There is some gravitational effect differential in a hundred years.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by Going Walkabout

OK while they are talking about climate warming caused by C02 emissions, scientists are now warning about global cooling. And wait, thats not all. They are saying its because of the change in the activity from the Sun and not because of man made "pollution".

So now we are looking at Global Cooling I am so glad to be preparing for a life aboard a sailboat. I will be able to move to wherever the climate is most favorable and not stuck in some freezing part of the world. :big grin:

"If the World does get cold all over with some places turning to ice do we need to look at Arctic sailing preparations for our sailboats. Just thinking.
A team of European researchers have unveiled a scientific model showing that the Earth is likely to experience a “mini ice age” from 2030 to 2040 as a result of decreased solar activity.

Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by 2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial melt at the poles.

Global warming 'is FAKE': Volume of ice caps is INCREASING, claims...
World will start COOLING DOWN in 2017, claims one of planet's top...

However, at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, Northumbria University professor Valentina Zharkova said fluctuations an 11-year cycle of solar activity the sun goes through would be responsible for a freeze, the like of which has not been experienced since the 1600s.

From 1645 to 1715 global temperatures dropped due to low solar activity so much that the planet experienced a 70-year ice age known as Maunder Minimum which saw the River Thames in London completely frozen."

"... However, many scientists are not convinced. Georg Feulner, the deputy chair of the Earth system analysis research domain at the Potsdam Institute on Climate Change Research, has studied the effect a solar minimum might have on Earth's climate. His research has shown that temperature drops correlated to a less intense sun would be insignificant compared with anthropogenic global warming, according to the Washington Post.

Regarding the Maunder Minimum predicted by Zharkova, Feulner said, "The expected decrease in global temperature would be 0.1 degrees Celsius at most, compared to about 1.3 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times by the year 2030," Feulner told the Post. Furthermore, this isn't the first time research has predicted waning heat from the sun, to which experts also said that man-made global warming won't be trumped."

- See more at: Is a Mini Ice Age Coming? 'Maunder Minimum' Spurs Controversy

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Amazing. Thank you. Oh. Thanks for the heads up on the not so sound figures I gleaned from the Internet. It does illustrate my biggest problem with all of this in that who can you trust on either side. It's like standing in the Senate and asking who isn't a liar here. You know if someone puts up their hand and says tis I, you know you've just found d the biggest liar of a city full of liars.

I had a birthday last December. Do you think cynicism grows exponentially with age?

Regards,
Chaya

That's a sloppy rhetorical cop-out. Once my "facts" are proved wrong, I retreat to an existential argument about the nature of facts.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

No jack I know how tides are affected on a day to day bais I'm thinking on a longer term considering the distance from the earth to the moon is increasing by approx 3.5 cm per year. There is some gravitational effect differential in a hundred years.

The tide cycle is approximately 18.5 years from lowest astronomical tide to lowest astronomical tide.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by sneuman

That's a sloppy rhetorical cop-out. Once my "facts" are proved wrong, I retreat to an existential argument about the nature of facts.

And an existential comment on the nature of facts is not warranted in respect of this discussion, I ask?

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by jackdale

The tide cycle is approximately 18.5 years from lowest astronomical tide to lowest astronomical tide.

I hear Mars is approaching the earth in its closest orbit in many lifetimes. Do your think the red planet has an affect on our sphere?

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

And an existential comment on the nature of facts is not warranted in respect of this discussion, I ask?

Well, it wouldn't pass muster in a high school debate club.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

I hear Mars is approaching the earth in its closest orbit in many lifetimes. Do your think the red planet has an affect on our sphere?

You must discussing the lifespan of mayflies. It is the closest it has been in 11 years.

Mars Is Closest to Earth in 11 Years on Monday: What to Expect

Mars is APPROXIMATELY the same mass as the Moon, but 100 times farther away so the height of the Martian water tides on the Earth ought to be about 1 million times smaller because tidal gravitational forces vary as the THIRD power of the separation between the bodies.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by jackdale

You must discussing the lifespan of mayflies. It is the closest it has been in 11 years.

Mars Is Closest to Earth in 11 Years on Monday: What to Expect

Mars is APPROXIMATELY the same mass as the Moon, but 100 times farther away so the height of the Martian water tides on the Earth ought to be about 1 million times smaller because tidal gravitational forces vary as the THIRD power of the separation between the bodies.

That's not what my astrologer said!