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Old 21-12-2015, 11:31   #181
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

I think that we are missing a very important point to the average climate change denier. To accept the premise that humans have a major influence on the planet's climate, one would have to accept that God is not in control. For theists, that is a blasphemous rejection of God's supremacy and by extension, it is a rejection of God. And we all know what happens to people who don't worship God.

So, stop arguing, we aren't going to change their minds with any logical demonstration of fact, graphs, or refutation of nonsense that the industry propagandists spew.
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Old 21-12-2015, 11:33   #182
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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The point of the article linked in the OP is getting missed by most of us in this thread. The point is that there is a huge variable that almost no climate model is taking into account. Human ingenuity is a pretty awesome thing. And to date no one has been able to predict what technology would be like in 20 or 100 years. It is naive to think that the next 20-100 years will not produce technology that seems inconceivable today. There is absolutely no reason, based on past history, to predict that the world will devolve into a "Water-World" or "Mad Max" scenario. To the contrary, human history has a many thousands year track record of improving living conditions through innovation and most importantly education. It takes a very warped view of humanity to think that will not continue whatever the climate does (or does not do).
Ah, but this brings up a very valid point. Compare this to the Y2K software "scare". The millennium came and went, and there was nary a computer crash to be seen. The mortgage industry didn't fail (instead, that didn't happen until 2008 ;-). The banking industry was still up and running on January 2, 2000. Our electric power distribution system still works.

So the big question is: was all that money spent updating our computer systems wasted?

And the big answer was a resounding NO. Why? The reason all those systems didn't fail, and our whole civilization didn't fail was precisely because we spent the resources and we fixed it. Well, I'll admit the whole civilization falling thing was a bit overblown...

And what climate change is forcing us to do is to "fix things". In more precise terms, what is being done is taking the cost of economic externalities - the consequences of today's "polluters" - and moving them back to the entities which are incurring them, rather than push that cost onto our grandchildren.

Same as what happened with tobacco, lead anti-knocking additives to gasoline, heavy-metal contamination, etc. Governments regulated those industries, forcing them to basically bear the cost of those pollutants rather than ignoring them and forcing others to bear the brunt of the health and environmental issues they caused.

Human beings are very creative. But we can be lazy. If we're not pushed to solve a problem, we'll ignore it, especially if it doesn't directly affect us. We'll let someone else deal with it because we have enough problems on our plate. What governments are doing with these carbon markets and carbon taxes is the bounce the problem back on the polluters and force them to deal with it.

Getting back to transmitterdan's point: we can't be ingenious if we don't recognize the problem. And it's kind of like saving for retirement: it's easier to address if you address it early on, and don't put off until near the end.
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Old 21-12-2015, 11:36   #183
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Originally Posted by transmitterdan View Post
The point of the article linked in the OP is getting missed by most of us in this thread. The point is that there is a huge variable that almost no climate model is taking into account. Human ingenuity is a pretty awesome thing. And to date no one has been able to predict what technology would be like in 20 or 100 years. It is naive to think that the next 20-100 years will not produce technology that seems inconceivable today. There is absolutely no reason, based on past history, to predict that the world will devolve into a "Water-World" or "Mad Max" scenario. To the contrary, human history has a many thousands year track record of improving living conditions through innovation and most importantly education. It takes a very warped view of humanity to think that will not continue whatever the climate does (or does not do).
It wouldn't take much ingenuity to just walk extremely slowly inland as the sea level rises at an inch or so per year....

I think most people... even us deniers of low intelect can handle that.

Thanks for bringing us back to my original point contained in the article.
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Old 21-12-2015, 11:36   #184
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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My Ukrainian uncle has smoked 3-4 packs a day for over 70 years and worked in a steel yard with asbestos, usually a cigarette in one hand, welding or cutting torch in the other. He's now 86 and still smoking and cancer free.

Cancer is caused by the inability of each individual's immune system to rid the body of deformed cancerous cells. When the immune system breaks down or is too weak to deal with an out of control outbreak of deformed cells... we call it cancer. He must have an epic immune system.
Or just never worries about it like my father! Cigarettes, meat & potatoes almost every day of his adult life. Probably just good genetics . . . I hope.
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Old 21-12-2015, 11:37   #185
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Me too. If you go back in history you will see that Nuclear used to be promoted by the left socially progressives. I'm beginning to see that some in these circles are returning to nuclear as a solution.

For me, the new mini reactors hold the greatest excitement for solving our energy needs. We still however need to find better solutions on waste disposal. Waste coming from nuclear is probably the lowest for any energy creation source. But it is still highly toxic. We do have two super hot sources that could effectively obliterate nuclear waste. One is the Sun the other is our molten lava bellow us. Shooting rockets full of nuclear waste into the sun would work but the energy needed for this doesn't make sense. Dropping nuclear waste directly into the earths lava could be a viable solution.

There are other nuclear waste solutions that could also be viable. We should definitely be closing down the older reactors and be building the new safe mini reactors.
I'm both in favor of and surprised that Thorium reactors aren't a more popular option. Not only are they extremely safe, they can use up waste from conventional light water reactors as fuel and the end result is waste with the normal background radiation levels close to naturally occurring thorium.

They can be built smaller, cheaper and closer to the end users than traditional reactors due to their design and safety features.
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Old 21-12-2015, 11:44   #186
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Or just never worries about it like my father! Cigarettes, meat & potatoes almost every day of his adult life. Probably just good genetics . . . I hope.
My uncle eats his potatoes dipped or slathered in bacon grease. He says it helps lubricate his system.
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Old 21-12-2015, 11:47   #187
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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So, stop arguing,
It's all Ken's fault, as usual.
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Old 21-12-2015, 11:50   #188
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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My uncle eats his potatoes dipped or slathered in bacon grease. He says it helps lubricate his system.
My father quit going to the doctor after noticing that every time one of his old fart friends go, the doctor finds something wrong with them. He says he feels fine, pass the steak.
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Old 21-12-2015, 11:57   #189
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Methane is 20x more effective as a greenhouse gas. Think about that every time you think about the hundreds of millions of cattle (and other animals worldwide) producing millions of tons of methane, naturally. Now add in natural sources from lakes and swamps, plus landfills... you start to get the picture that maybe methane might be more of a problem than CO2.

Now think about the millions of tons of ash and gasses ejected from the 1500 active volcanoes around the world. That stays in the upper atmosphere for years - we saw evidence of dust still in the upper atmosphere 3 or 4 yrs after Mt Pinatubo erupted.
Don't worry, there are already plenty of people, along with their interest groups & advocates, who are freaked out about all the farting cows & pigs and are proposing "solutions" for that one too.

Not sure if volcanoes have their opposing groups lined up yet. Maybe Big Oil is promoting more frequent eruptions as a cover for their fossil fuel emissions?
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Old 21-12-2015, 12:05   #190
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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My father quit going to the doctor after noticing that every time one of his old fart friends go, the doctor finds something wrong with them. He says he feels fine, pass the steak.

That is my health plan, based on my similar observations, and the fact that I can't afford to go to a doctor, even though I have a very good income and company group insurance.
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Old 21-12-2015, 12:14   #191
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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The science behind the link between tobacco and cancer was solid, quite early on. By denying and lobbying and fomenting dissent, the tobacco lobby successfully delayed serious consideration of this solid link... for decades, and caused many preventable deaths.

I'm pretty sure it was the people who died from smoking who were in the best position to prevent their deaths.

"The People" don't reach a consensus. Science reaches a consensus and presents it, and the battle is to have people accept or reject the scientific consensus. Science itself is not something you vote on, science is doing the research and hypothesizing and testing (lather rinse repeat) and being influenced only by the results.

You must have some access or insight into how exactly the scientific process worked in this case. Were you one of the scientists who were consulted?

It's totally the case that deniers are flying in the face of the current scientific consensus around AGW. The layperson who thinks the science is not good, or isn't settled enough to be credible... is the one labouring under a false premise.

In other words, none of them can possibly be intelligent.

If you have doubts about what to do, whether we can do anything, how much we should commit to addressing the issue... these are entirely valid concerns, and should be the subjects of ongoing discussion.

Tell that to the two "Deniers" who were threatened with criminal prosecution in NY State by their "ongoing discussion."

Indulge me in a hypothetical, please:
- your sister is a climate scientist of note, and a researcher at a prominent US university, or NOAA, say
- she and several of her scientist colleagues sit down one afternoon and patiently explain how the scientific consensus around AGW was reached, and why they think it's something we should deal with
- you trust your sister, and you are now genuinely convinced that AGW is real and requires attention.

Here comes the question: President X (who you voted for, to remove party bias here) asks her oops his advisors to present an action plan for AGW, the scientists of different disciplines meet to produce a course of action to address the threat. The costs are significant, but economically bearable and won't ruin the country.

Would you vote for or against it? Yes or No, based just on the above. (anyone can play, only rules are Yes or No)
Rules?? Obviously you don't know my sisters! Three of them to be exact, and all older. Need I say more? None of them are scientists, not even close. But that's never stopped them from being all-knowing, especially when it comes to their liberal politics and therefore the consensus program on AGW. It's not a matter of debating them for me, but rather my physical survival.
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Old 21-12-2015, 12:17   #192
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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That is my health plan, based on my similar observations, and the fact that I can't afford to go to a doctor, even though I have a very good income and company group insurance.
Lemme guess, the "Affordable Care Act?"
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Old 21-12-2015, 12:29   #193
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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You really do not know what he said - do you?

What Gore (not a climate scientist) really said:

"Last September 21 (2007), as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."
OK, 2014, and Gore was citing a USN study when he spoke. But a lot more people obviously listen to Gore than read USN research studies, especially when he makes a very well-promoted movie. But the point is that the ice is still there, and there are studies out there reporting that the Arctic Polar Bear population is actually increasing.
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Old 21-12-2015, 12:31   #194
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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Lemme guess, the "Affordable Care Act?"
I call it the "Excuse to Gap the Health Insurance Rip-off Trend Act."
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Old 21-12-2015, 12:34   #195
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Re: Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

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The point of the article linked in the OP is getting missed by most of us in this thread. The point is that there is a huge variable that almost no climate model is taking into account. Human ingenuity is a pretty awesome thing. And to date no one has been able to predict what technology would be like in 20 or 100 years. It is naive to think that the next 20-100 years will not produce technology that seems inconceivable today. There is absolutely no reason, based on past history, to predict that the world will devolve into a "Water-World" or "Mad Max" scenario. To the contrary, human history has a many thousands year track record of improving living conditions through innovation and most importantly education. It takes a very warped view of humanity to think that will not continue whatever the climate does (or does not do).
Technology may in fact save us, or at least kick the can down another bunch of decades or even centuries. Who knows... which is kinda the point. No one knows. Would you really bet your future on something that might happen in the future? It's kinda like using lottery tickets as your retirement plan.

As for the track record, the lesson to take from our history over the last 10,000 years is that civilizations do come and go. Our history is littered with collapse and devolution into dark ages. Climactic and environmental changes have been associated with many of these events. So it seems arrogant to think we are now somehow immune to these changes.

Humanity will most likely continue, but our civilization which is now a global entity, may not. That is the real issue facing humanity. We have built our global civilization in a period of unusually stable climate. Scientists (the 99% anyway) are saying that based on the best available research, this stable period is rapidly coming to an end. Most point to human civilization as a significant factor in shifting climate into this more unstable zone. Regardless, the shift is real. What we do about it is the question that faces us all.

I actually have a lot of sympathy for the perspective that puts responsibility on my shoulders. I've given up trying to change the world -- that's a young man's game -- but I can change myself. It's partly why I'm going sailing. But individual action is not enough, and using it as a rhetorical argumentative tactic is simply disingenuous. Systemic and fundamental change is needed at all levels of our societies. In broad sweeps we need to reduce population AND reduce the intensity of our resource use. Population is mostly a problem in the lesser developed world. Resource use is the rich developed world's issue. Both need to come down. Interestingly and ironically, the population part is being addressed, but we in the rich developed world show no signs of changing our ways. We keep using more and more.

So while it's great that many individuals have chosen not to have children, and are living with much smaller environmental footprints, that is simply not enough. You can bank on some unforeseen and unknowable future technology to save us, or we can all take action now. But that's the hard part. For most of us it means living with less. But the idea of less is something we cannot tolerate in our growth-at-all-cost societies.

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It's all Ken's fault, as usual.
I fully agree . He's a troublemaker .
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