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Mr B · 06-10-2016, 23:56

Personally, If I couldnt get far up a river or creek to tie off too in the middle of the river or creek,
It would be in very solid Mangrove swamps, Where you get coverage from the winds,
The wind goes over the top of the mangroves, Protecting you in the river,

Then as soon as the cyclone or Hurricane in the northern hemisphere passes, I would get out of the river as quickly as possible,
As the floods coming down the river in the days after the Cyclone passes can sink your boat,
The floods are full of trees and other debris that will smash your boat,
If your on anchor in these floods, The crap piling up on your anchor chain will pull your boat under, Thats a fact,
Many boats in the Burnett river, Bundaberg were pulled under with just the Hyacinth floating down,
The river will rise to unheard of heights and flood the whole area out, Leaving your boat parked in the tree tops,
140 boats were lost in the Burnett river due to flooding, in 2011, sank at moorings and parked in tree tops,

I would put to sea and get far away from land as possible, Heading down wind all the time,
Heading into the wind and waves is very slow and bashes the boat about tremendously,
You dont want a broken boat when your out running a storm of any kind,

7 knots on the motor will put you 160 miles out to sea per day,
A cyclone is about 300 miles wide on average, but can be 500 miles wide,
So three days of sailing can put you well out of harms way,

There are variables, But that depends on the storm itself, which way its heading, Etc Etc,

Just make sure you have plenty of open sea to sail in, Well clear of any Islands or land,
Cyclones are round, so the hiding spot with three sides you have sheltered in,
Will be fully open to the cyclone when the eye passes over and it comes from the other direction,

I have been thru quite a few cyclones in my time, The best was standing in the eye of one,
From 200 KPH wind to nothing in minutes, Standing in full sunshine, Dead calm with no wind, Was quite an experience,
Maryborough in Qld, 1973,

Then twenty minutes later it hit from the other direction, That was when the roofs exploded and the air was full of sheets of iron from roofs, and branches and any thing else that wasnt bolted down,

The first side of a cyclone loosens every thing up, The other side going the other way, Destroys every thing,
I rode my bike thru a rain depression from a cyclone, No wind, But 10 inches of rain for 10 hours straight wasnt fun,

**JPA Cate** · 07-10-2016, 00:33

GoingWalkabout, et al,

There are times and places when going to sea 5 days in advance would be a good idea, and times and places when it would be terrible. It depends on which hemisphere you're in, whether you'll have the likelihood of getting into more trouble or less. In the case of Port Vila, mentioned by No Ties, most of the cyclones that come to Vanuatu bear off to the SE. So, it would be doable to pop out into the Pacific, and beat feet to Gladstone, Bundaberg, or Brisbane, all entry ports and all south of 22 S, so insurance will most likely cover the boats..

From the Bahamas, possibly the safest course would have been to head south, towards the equator, and away from the breeding ground of the lows. Of course, there's always the question of what do you do when you get there...... And, it's a bloody long way, in a 6 or 7 knot sailboat from the Bahamas to the Mississippi or Houston! That's why there is boat carnage.

Also, imho, there isn't enough space in the mangrove creeks for 10,000 boats, let alone 24,000. The chap who wrote in from North Queensland, sees lots of boats in Cairns, but the boat population drops off rapidly from there, and Australia is blessed with many mangrove creeks, as well as low boat population density. Not so, the US. There are a couple of cyclone holes in Fiji, and, generally, if you get there before the commercial boats, and go far enough the mangrove creeks, you'll be okay, but again, low boat population relative to need for protection.

I, personally, who have seen only 60 plus, at sea, during a fast moving cyclone, would not really want to be anywhere at all near a Cat 5 cyclone at sea. At some point, both the wind and the seas become boat breakers.

Ann

On edit: I guess people's definitions of "accuracy" vary considerably. To me, when the 4 and 5 day out nhc predictions admit they may be out 160 and 240 n. mi., to me that is inaccurate. Remember when one of the predicted tracks showed it tailing off near Nova Scotia? Well, now , it's different. The sad truth is that the best accuracy is today, tmw, and the next day. So, I think it is misleading to say that the track prediction was "accurate". It was only accurate in the sense it went between Cuba and Jamaica, and headed for Florida. That is a common track. Now the long term prediction shows it taking a loop. Well, it may, but that's a number of days out. And, still, Niclole will have some part to play. The water's warm enough to support cyclones.

Furthermore, the great majority of people have to stay near where they are employed, so an escape to Brazil, say, would not be on, except for retirees and foreigners. People who must be on the South Eastern Seaboard of the US are among the sitting ducks for hurricanes. Very sad, but boat carnage is likely.

A.

**weavis** · 07-10-2016, 00:54

I have no faith in hurricane tracking and predicting. Its fine when its close enough to what is happening, and when things change the comment is: "it was impossible to predict that happening".

There is only one question to ask self.. "Do I want be out on the seas with a hurricane around me?"

That is one of the reasons people dont rush out to sea to escape a storm simply because its not going to be pleasant out there if things go wrong. It doesnt take long for a Storm cell to change direction 180 degrees or a variant of..

Lets not forget the water spouts that come with the storm...

jbinbi · 07-10-2016, 01:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stumble

Hmm, I wonder what happens when hurricanes collide... there looks like a 200nm wide strip of safe water between the two storms right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

A week ago Matthew was far enough south that if you headed out from say Melbourne or points northwards you would have had a pleasant sail. You would easily get more than 200 miles in 2 days. Then shoot south east to an island out of reach of Mathew and away from the other low formed in the Atlantic.

You are supposing leaving in the winds. I am saying with this slow moving huricane there was plenty of opportunity to get out of Dodge before things turned nasty.

A week ago the storms path could have as easily been up the west side of Florida.

So every boater in Florida should take the next 2 weeks off. Hey boss, I am using up all my vacation days in a row. The guy in Tampa looks like a fool. So probably does the guy in Miami, where just a day ago looks like it was a direct hit and in the evacuation zone, and now hopefully just gets a Gale. Still not great, but considering the population density, hopefully it is spared significant damage.

A course track change of 50 mi makes all the difference,and that info is only good within a day or 2.

Sent from my KFTBWI using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

**neilpride** · 07-10-2016, 01:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoTies

Seriously, has nobody heard of Buys Ballot law or know how to use it? It takes into account any change in storm direction and if used in plenty of time is bullet proof. Pure, basic, simple seamanship that seems to be missing from so many cruisers nowadays.

Yeah, i know that law from long time ago, the point is i dont have those balls of steel to put in practique the funy law with my own boat , now could be a good idea if by bad luck you are in a hot spot with a monster cane buzzing around and make a departure to see if the Buys Bullets law work , and please comeback with the results to this forum, im excited....

NoTies · 07-10-2016, 02:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbinbi

A week ago the storms path could have as easily been up the west side of Florida.

So every boater in Florida should take the next 2 weeks off. Hey boss, I am using up all my vacation days in a row. The guy in Tampa looks like a fool. So probably does the guy in Miami, where just a day ago looks like it was a direct hit and in the evacuation zone, and now hopefully just gets a Gale. Still not great, but considering the population density, hopefully it is spared significant damage.

A course track change of 50 mi makes all the difference,and that info is only good within a day or 2.

Sent from my KFTBWI using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

The difference between cruisers and landlubbers

NoTies · 07-10-2016, 02:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by neilpride

Yeah, i know that law from long time ago, the point is i dont have those balls of steel to put in practique the funy law with my own boat , now could be a good idea if by bad luck you are in a hot spot with a monster cane buzzing around and make a departure to see if the Buys Bullets law work , and please comeback with the results to this forum, im excited....

Yep, let's forget about all the principles of seamanship and cower behind our insurance policies. If people acted like that for Cyclone Pam, oh wait, they did. You should see how that panned out. Had they gone on the port tack early on they would have survived quite comfortably and been able to return to help the islanders with aid. But, I guess they didn't want to get out of internet range and away from their comfort zones.

**neilpride** · 07-10-2016, 02:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoTies

Yep, let's forget about all the principles of seamanship and cower behind our insurance policies. If people acted like that for Cyclone Pam, oh wait, they did. You should see how that panned out. Had they gone on the port tack early on they would have survived quite comfortably and been able to return to help the islanders with aid. But, I guess they didn't want to get out of internet range and away from their comfort zones.

Yes Sr, If if if, i think the ´´If´´ is to expensive ...

NoTies · 07-10-2016, 02:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by neilpride

Yes Sr, If if if, i think the ´´If´´ is to expensive ...

OK, Vanuatu has no navigable river systems, no mangrove areas big enough to shelter a boat, no decent haulout facility capable of hauling a number of boats quickly. We're not all in comfy America with travel lifts dotted everywhere. We have to rely on ourselves and our seamanship, not an insurance policy and some conveniently placed infrastructure. I guess that's why only the intrepid sailors generally come here.

**neilpride** · 07-10-2016, 03:20

Well, first of all,, be in a hurricane area in hurricane season is the first step in taking some risk, ok you get some % risk, and now come the part when you leave ahead of a Cane and fill the rest of the % risk . Congratulations someone win the 100%... i guess is probably smarter to be out of the box in the season if you dont have insurance and let me tell you something, 80 or 90 % of the fleets in hurricane areas in hurricane season dont have coverage,, apart from Charter companys...So with the fact that some folks are risking their boats in hurricane season i cant see a good reason to risk the life to.. im bombed with question in the yard each season , where? how? and i answer always the same, get out of here mate.... so the navigable circle and dangerous quadrant work in fact ,, but who have the nuts to make a try... huuu

**neilpride** · 07-10-2016, 03:32

This is a truly sad history.
https://www.google.es/url?sa=t&rct=j...7LskH-OIIyk61Q

beiland · 07-10-2016, 04:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

I agree. But this hurricane track was predicted 4 to 5 days ago. Also not thinking of outrunning it by going north. Rather going straight east to get out of its path including its outer bands.

At 11 p.m. EDT (0300 GMT), Matthew was centered about 125 miles (205 kilometers) south-southeast of Nassau in the central Bahamas. It was heading northwest at 10 mph (17 kph).

Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 45 miles (75 kilometers) from the center, meaning Matthew could wreak havoc along the East Coast even if it did not actually come ashore.

45 miles for the hurricane and then add double this for storm effect you still had enough time in most vessels with decent motors to get out of harms way. Especially if you left a few days ago.

I have long been an advocate of escaping to sea. MANY vessels in shallow water, dockside locales just get hammered by big storms.

I long ago read aq small book that documented many personal experiences of skippers that survived serious offshore storms. Parachute anchors had a lot of advocates. I created a subject thread on the matter here:
Parachute Anchors, Para-Anchor, Sea Anchor - Boat Design Forums

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian eiland

Parachute Anchors, Para-Anchor, Sea Anchor

I have been for a long time an advocate for the parachute type sea anchor, deployed from the bow of the vessel, for use as the ultimate survivability tool in really extreme sea conditions:
....from my website…
“Storm survivability should be considered at the design stage for any vessel making offshore passages. It's generally acknowledged that this is best accomplished by facing into a truly strong storm (a big headsea). As mechanical things go, its not hard to imagine some lost of power at a most inopportune time during an extended storm. This could put the solely powered vessel in a perilous position in short order. The motor/sailer and in particular one with our ketch style rig would have several sail configurations which would hold her into the wind. However, I would strongly recommend installing a dedicated sea anchor system that not only takes care of you in those extreme heavy weather situations, but can be utilized in a variety of other less threatening conditions. With a backup sea anchor system aboard, I would ride out a hurricane in this vessel.”

This conclusion on my part was reached was as a result of 3 occasions of actual experiences at sea in storms, but never with a sea anchor onboard. It was following these experiences, and upon reading of others’ experiences with heavy weather tactics that I ran across one of the original books dedicated to the subject, “The Parachute Anchoring System” by John & Joan Casanova, Victor Shane, Daniel Shewmon. I also reviewed Victor’s original “Drag Device Data Base”. These books, and others on heavy weather sailing, combined with my previous practical experiences convinced me that in the ultimate situation the ‘anchor-at-sea’ approach was the best approach as long as it could be attained.

To quote Victor Shane;
“Every form of warfare involves a defense as well as an offense. There are times when the mariner can fight the elements and, with good seamanship, prevail. But there are also times when he must, in all wisdom, cease all offense and place his vessel in a defensive mode. Going with Mother Nature, and trying to keep up with Mother Nature are two different things!”

In a similar vein I wrote about a fight with the sea, “Heavy boats carry their momentum into each trough and crest in a battle with the sea, while relatively lt-weight boats with slender hulls slice through with less battering. "You can out-think the ocean, but you can't out-slug the ocean," quoting a sign posted at the U.S. Naval Academy.

A recent incident (Jan 06) involving a multihull designer Richard Woods, who had to abandon his vessel in a bad storm in the infamous Gulf of Tehuantepec, has prompted me to revisit my thoughts on the subject of parachute sea anchors. Richard deployed a parachute anchor for a period of time, but experienced problems with it, and ultimately expressed dissatisfaction with this survival tool, at least initially. I’m going to post here his initial report as was posted on another multihull forum.

I am hoping that once Richard gets a bit more settled (and hopefully recovers his vessel), that we can attempt to evaluate what failures in system or usage led to his less-than-successful deployment of this survival tool. It should be a learning experience, and a time to more fully explore this very important subject.

That book cover:

beiland · 07-10-2016, 04:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigpuff

it takes balls to head out and lay ahull in 120 kts.

Yes but if you are in deep water where the waves are longer and not as steep, and you can remain pointed into the wind without suffering significant drift, your vessel will likely survive far better than anywhere on shore.

Look up some of the actual RECORDED survival stories of folks that have done it.

beiland · 07-10-2016, 05:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by capngeo

Anyone who says they will head out to sea to avoid a hurricane in anything less than a large ship or perhaps one of the steel fishing boats from Deadliest Catch is a pure fool who has never experienced a hurricane.

Actually the larger the vessel, more problems can arise. Just depends on the size vessel you (and the parachute anchor) can handle.