Escaping a Huricane by heading out to ocean

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by neilpride

Assumption?? who know where or when is going to make the turn and who know how good or bad the fleet along the coast is well or bad secured....

I was in FL Ft, Lauderdale area when Floyd a CAT 5 monster decide to make a sharp turn to the north just when everybody claim is going to be another Andrew ......still to early to know what is going to happen...

I'm sorry to disagree. The tracking of hurricanes today is far more precise then even just 10 years ago. If you took all the predictive tracks for Matthew they only differed by approximately 20 miles east or west. All tracks had Mathew travelling in exactly the northern pathe it is going.

Computer modeling is tremendously accurate now. Yes surprises can kick in. It can weaken, start to fall apart or strengthen. My money is after a small weakening as it passes over the Bahamas it will strengthen as it draws further energy from the relative warmer waters of the gulf stream.

What could be unexpected is a more southerly twist and turn that will cause a direct hit from Miami to Fort Lauderdale. Presently it is on track to make a direct hit north of Palm Beach. The outer wind strength will impact Fort Lauderdale badly but in all propability spare Miami. Still Miami from South Beach northwards could experience significant ocean swells. Ocean swells are being predicted from 9 feet to over 12 feet. These large swells can cause significant damage to vessels in Marinas.

This is not looking pretty. Prays for all.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

I understand. If you have a sail boat 45 and above you usually have some grunt power on board. A 50' benny usually come with big engines. Cats 45' or larger are also well powered with the added advantage of having 2 big motors.

I can see the issue of smaller vessels being able to get out far enough in time.

By the way. Some have recalled how the navy would muster far off shore to escape a huricane. Then they said the navy has teams upon teams of storm plotters able to give direction and then sometimes still get it wrong. Like the Admiral who twice in 1944 and 1945 sent the 3rd fleet into cyclones in the Pacific.

The weather forecasting and hurricane tracking today available to anyone with a smartphone or computer is way and above the tracking even the navy had of yesteryear.

Still haven't heard a good reason why, if you had a good sized motor you couldn't have moved far offshore out of range of Matthew. Expecially since it was tracking days ago to run up the south east coast.

The crew of the Bounty had plenty of "grunt power" on board and look what happened to them. Most reasonable people don't want to end up dead trying to save a leisure boat... It's really just that simple.

[GoingWalkabout]

Tropical winds extending out to 160 miles. If you left even in a slower boat 3 days ago you would be safe and clear.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 78.4 West. The hurricane is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north-
northwest tonight or early Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Matthew should be near or over Freeport in the Bahamas in the next
few hours, and move close to or over the east coast of the Florida
peninsula through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible,
and Matthew should remain a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches
the Florida coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas reported 97 mph (156 km/h)
sustained winds earlier today when the northern eyewall moved over
that island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).

[GoingWalkabout]

WTNT34 KNHC 061737
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW RELENTLESSLY POUNDING THE BAHAMAS...
...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 78.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

This is not looking pretty. Prays for all.

And after beating the coast up to Cape Lookout takes a wide turn back to Florida five days from now, hopefully allready weakened.

[neilpride]

Leave to 3 days ago ? to where??

[GoingWalkabout]

Looking at the latest imaging it could very easily hit further south than predicated.




http://static.cbslocal.com/station/wfor/files/weather/WEB_tracking_IR.gif

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

And after beating the coast up to Cape Lookout takes a wide turn back to Florida five days from now, hopefully allready weakened.

Double whammy

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by neilpride

Leave to 3 days ago ? to where??

Due east into the deep Atlantic. When 200 miles out head south east for an Island safe hole. If course you will need to watch other storm patterns and act accordingly. In a week it would be safe to come back to port.

[neilpride]

OK so I guess you mean in the small gap between Matthew and Nicole, where 10 to 15 ft seas against you work well, also I cant imagine the guts of any skipper in such situation, I don't found any safe spot right now in Bahamas , even with 3 days in advance, I don't see how this can work well for me or others without add a huge% risk of loosing my life for a piece of fiberglass not worth my life... I try to respect some opinions in this forum very often but this one sounds a bad suggestion near to a crazy one...

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by neilpride

OK so I guess you mean in the small gap between Matthew and Nicole, where 10 to 15 ft seas against you work well, also I cant imagine the guts of any skipper in such situation, I don't found any safe spot right now in Bahamas , even with 3 days in advance, I don't see how this can work well for me or others without add a huge% risk of loosing my life for a piece of fiberglass not worth my life... I try to respect some opinions in this forum very often but this one sounds a bad suggestion near to a crazy one...

Well below 10 ft between M and N but what's wrong with 15 ft? A bit bumby so might spill some coffee and keep the best china in the dishrack..

[neilpride]

Carnival cruise ships and others reported adrift between Marathon and north tip of cuba, lot of traffic right now there , guess waiting for where to run?
http://www.marinetra...ntery:24/zoom:8

[TeddyDiver]

Waiting the storm to run..

[NoTies]

Hard to believe there are 5 pages on this topic by supposedly experienced sailors and most seem to think you need to sail faster than the storm. Has nobody heard of Buys Ballot Law? Last year, if the yachts in Port Vila had put to sea on the port tack before Cyclone Pam they would have avoided the carnage that ensued in the harbour.

[senormechanico]

Imho, the only boat safe in a hurricane is a submarine.