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Old 25-07-2016, 10:31   #76
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Re: Ugh, losing my patience

I think you will do just fine with gf. I think you are just finding your thoughts on the issue and "thinking out loud"
Just remeber life is supposed to be fun. Gfs included. You have the means...just let anything thats isnt fun go. Trust me, a lot changes emotionally and intecually in the next 10 years, establish fun as your most important goal.
You wont regret it.
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Old 25-07-2016, 11:03   #77
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Re: Ugh, losing my patience

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Originally Posted by SaltyTanned View Post
You know, I retired in 1995 and nave been living abord in the Caribbean ever since.
Damn cool!
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Old 25-07-2016, 11:28   #78
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Re: Ugh, losing my patience

Can't help you with the girlfriend or the home sale, but as far as the business you sold goes - DON'T LOOK BACK! You owe them nothing as long as all the proper disclosures were made and the new owners were aware of everything. That's no longer your problem. When you threw that in, it almost seems like you're looking for reasons not to go.
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Old 25-07-2016, 12:04   #79
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Re: Ugh, losing my patience

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Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
Way I figured, $500K at 5%, to me a realistic number, yields $25,000 per yr on interest and you never touch the principle.
$1Mil? $100K a yr


And no, I have a feeling that on average the type that has assets of 1 Mil or more, will often spend 20K+ on Marina's and Entertainment alone.
Nothing wrong with that, just what I have seen
Yes. This is also my impression. People who own big 7 digit houses are not people who cruise the West Indies in a Bristol.

Owning does not bring freedom. Quite contrary, beyond a point, the owner becomes the owned.

Getting rid of, giving away and sharing is what brings us freedom.

BTW

I think 5% is optimistic. 30 years US govts pay 2.28 today and last time they were up they only paid 4% (ages ago, 2014 maybe). This is not 1970, 80, ... very unfortunately for any hot cash owners.

http://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5Etyx?ltr=1

So with the market full of cheap money and the less risky yields being between 1% and 2%, where do you turn for 5%? Should the cheap money turn against us (as it may, with big inflation) our 2 or 5% will soon be swallowed up by our principal depreciation. ;-(

BTW

Puerto Rican and Equadorian USD denominated debt. OK. 11%. But both countries have defaulted before. They will again.

So we are on the right track. Both of us. The future may prove us both very wrong, too.

Cheers,
b.
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Old 25-07-2016, 12:14   #80
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Re: Ugh, losing my patience

Shot in the dark, I'm hoping for 5%, will get, what I get.

4% maybe?

Although I fail to understand what has been keeping inflation down, perhaps if I understood that, then I would understand better.
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Old 25-07-2016, 14:24   #81
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Re: Ugh, losing my patience

I totally concur that past performance in the markets are no guarantee of future performance but there are a few things I have found in my research that gives me comfort.

A number of blogs discuss the whole 4% rule and although I agree with the premise completely, you can't deny the math behind it...but I feel we may in a protracted period of low interest rates and low inflation. It will turn of course when nobody suspects it. Wade Pfau in his blog discusses withdraw rates and safe return expectations. At the end of the day it comes down to this...over the last 100 years there have been zero times where a withdraw rate of 3% of you assets have depleted your stash over a prolonged retirement. In fact a 4% withdraw rate works over 85% of the time.

I think about it like this...there is a greater likelihood that a black swan event occurs such as Yellowstone erupting or some whack jobs set a nuke off in Times Square than running out of money if you are smart about things. If one of these things were to happen we are all screwed anyway, so wouldn't you rather be spending you time doing something you love doing in the mean time? I made a friend here who went by Monte, I am sure many of you had conversed with him. He was helpful, friendly, knowledgeable, and an all around great person. He passed away suddenly and it was shocking to me as we had just chatted. We are assured nothing in life and we sure as hell better make the best of the days we are given. That's my plan at least.
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Old 25-07-2016, 17:24   #82
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Re: Ugh, losing my patience

Quote:
Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
Shot in the dark, I'm hoping for 5%, will get, what I get.

4% maybe?

Although I fail to understand what has been keeping inflation down, perhaps if I understood that, then I would understand better.
Depends on which 'risk free' (it is not risk free, it is just lowest available uncertainty/return ratio) you elect to buy.

If you buy now:
US GOVT 30Y = 2.2872%
US GOVT 10Y = 1.5731%

Inflation rate = 1%

So to say if you are buying 'risk free' then you are making between .57 and 1.28% p.a.

Now you sure know the problem with long term 'risk free' instruments is as inflation picks up, only buyers of new series get the margin. Very poor position, unless you are ready to shed the investment in no time and can do so at very minimal intermediary (brokerage etc.) costs. Unlikely the case of any cruiser except an ex banker.

On top of that I do not know the US tax code, so maybe the am .6 to 1.2% is actually less once tax (if any) on interest received is paid.

IMHO it does not matter WHAT has been keeping inflation this low. All we need to know is that it is low and so due to go up again one day. Then act accordingly.

BTW1 I bet at these rates the US Govt bonds pick up must be at its low.

BTW2 My wild guess is what initially got the inflation was the boom and gloom cycle of 2007/2012. However what keeps it down now is that the dollars so profusely printed by the Govt (also here in the EU) was given to the wrong people. If you want more inflation, you print and give to CONSUMERS not to the bankers. Helicopter money, child benefits, etc. Give to the ones who will walk out of the dole shop and buy cigarettes on the corner, not to those that will stash it under the mattress.

And just imagine what if. Imagine you bought US30Y back in 1996 (@ 7%) and you were lucky enough to make it till today. Pocket the 6%, buy a beer to barnakiel. ;-) Maybe even get a new sail for that boat ...

Frankly. It looks that today one must accept some risks or else forget about good gains. Own a business or buy corporate bonds. The only benefit of the latter you do not need to spend 10 hours at a desk every day.

BTW3 I would buy a rent-out'able property and rent it out.

Cheers,
b.
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Old 25-07-2016, 21:04   #83
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Re: Ugh, losing my patience

After reading a few of these posts I am wondering if you might have misgivings about posting in the first place. People giving advice on a house they have never seen plus opinions on the IQ of your girlfriend. My advice, be happy with what you have achieved in life.
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