The Flyin Hawaiian is gone!

[happyendings]

Too busy/lazy to search the thread, but has anyone commented on the "Mosquito Coast" nature of this whole story? I've seen cruisers doing brave, crazy and bold things that still show some sanity. This however...

[Therapy]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

I'm not going to take the time to dredge out the posts and the video from the CG, but IIRC the paramedics got her on IV hydration and some antibiotics, and she was hospitalized for a while on returning to the mainland. Also IIRC, she was not responding to the antibiotics that they had on board, so some outside intervention was required just for that.

Jim

Makes sense. Modern life simply would not be without antibiotics. In the olden days little infections killed a high percentage. Especially those under 5.

[JRM]

Originally Posted by socaldmax

That's been my point all along. If one is really prepared for a journey like that, there shouldn't be any problems when one casts off the lines. So what if you have to wait a little longer to complete repairs and wait for another or better weather window, it's better than taking unnecessary risks with your loved ones.

I find this an interesting thought pattern. And completely contrary to my life experiences. You can't possibly prepare for everything, so the level of preparation and personal comfort becomes a risk/benefit decision. It's personal. Everyone's is different. It seems to me that this thread's authors seem to be delineated based on whether Eric's level of risk acceptance was greater or lesser than their own. Some consider Eric's level of risk assumption to be unnecessary, but that doesn't make it so.

I think we can (mostly) agree that HR's risk acceptance was a wee bit on the high side of prudence. I don't think we'll ever agree on Eric's. Nor does it matter. Eric and Charlotte made an informed assessment and decision. Agree or disagree with it, or with their logic, at least they had some.

I see bad stuff regularly, and I can assure based on experiences, even a few today, that preparation is no guarantee of success. Nothing is. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. We tend to want to find fault in the actions of others to justify why "it" won't or can't happen to us. We want to believe that Eric and Charlotte lost their home because of mistakes we won't make, because admitting that there might be a giant Keno wheel of life is scary.

Just think of that fisherman that washed across the Pacific last year. HR was probably better prepared than him, yet he made it and HR didn't.

JRM



Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[JRM]

Originally Posted by JRM

I find this an interesting thought pattern. And completely contrary to my life experiences. You can't possibly prepare for everything, so the level of preparation and personal comfort becomes a risk/benefit decision. It's personal. Everyone's is different. It seems to me that this thread's authors seem to be delineated based on whether Eric's level of risk acceptance was greater or lesser than their own. Some consider Eric's level of risk assumption to be unnecessary, but that doesn't make it so.

I think we can (mostly) agree that HR's risk acceptance was a wee bit on the high side of prudence. I don't think we'll ever agree on Eric's. Nor does it matter. Eric and Charlotte made an informed assessment and decision. Agree or disagree with it, or with their logic, at least they had some.

I see bad stuff regularly, and I can assure based on experiences, even a few today, that preparation is no guarantee of success. Nothing is. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. We tend to want to find fault in the actions of others to justify why "it" won't or can't happen to us. We want to believe that Eric and Charlotte lost their home because of mistakes we won't make, because admitting that there might be a giant Keno wheel of life is scary.

Just think of that fisherman that washed across the Pacific last year. HR was probably better prepared than him, yet he made it and HR didn't.

JRM



Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

I went back to edit this because I didn't like the way it read, but it was too late. And the grammar is bad. Preparation can reduce the likelihood of problems, or their severity, but it can't eliminate them. The level of risk we are willing to assume is a personal choice.

We play a lot of board games at our house and on the boat. The boy has a new one that I think really illustrates this point. You travel the board collecting experience points, item cards, and gems. The item cards (stuff) help you earn the experience points. At the end, you tally up your experience points and gems. A 20 sided die is rolled, and if the number rolled is less than or equal to that tally, you get another gem. You can reduce the likelihood of failure by preparation, but the chance is always there.

The first few times we played, he got all caught up in collecting the stuff, and not the experience points. Then at the end, his chance of failure was much greater. It didn't take long for him to figure out the idea of odds and how to maximize his chances. The last time we played, I had managed to crib together 19, so he felt it was pointless to continue because I'd already won. Then I rolled a 20 and he won. We talked about how even though the odds were massively in my favor, it's no guarantee and he should never give up.

Even if my trip this summer ends in failure, it won't be defeat. Because the lifestyle we've adopted to pursue our dreams give us lots of moments like those family game times.

JRM

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[socaldmax]

Originally Posted by JRM

I find this an interesting thought pattern. And completely contrary to my life experiences. You can't possibly prepare for everything, so the level of preparation and personal comfort becomes a risk/benefit decision. It's personal. Everyone's is different.

I never said you could prepare for everything, but you should be prepared for most common problems. As I posted twice before, it's purely subjective. Obviously Eric felt leaving at that point was the correct choice, I would have made a different decision. Not better, just different.

It seems to me that this thread's authors seem to be delineated based on whether Eric's level of risk acceptance was greater or lesser than their own. Some consider Eric's level of risk assumption to be unnecessary, but that doesn't make it so.

Perhaps not to you, or 50% of the members here, but to me it was, and it's my opinion based on my own life experiences. In my mind, it's correct because it's based on my level of risk avoidance, not anyone else's. For example I would never single hand, yet a lot of people do it. I've stood port and stbd watches for months at a time, and I was exhausted and not mentally 100% for a good portion of the time. As an ESM operator, every time we came to periscope depth it was my responsibility to analyze all RF emissions from all contacts within seconds and make a decision if we were vulnerable to detection based on friend or foe, contact range, contact type, oparea, etc. That's a lot of responsibility and I took it seriously.There is no way for someone to stay up and sail a boat 24 hrs a day and maintain a watch and stay mentally sharp enough, IMHO. Do people do it? Yup. Do they make it? Yup. But I think they were just lucky they didn't hit something at some point while they napped, or they have an amazing ability to stay awake for days at a time.

I think we can (mostly) agree that HR's risk acceptance was a wee bit on the high side of prudence. I don't think we'll ever agree on Eric's. Nor does it matter. Eric and Charlotte made an informed assessment and decision. Agree or disagree with it, or with their logic, at least they had some.

HR was completely ignorant. Eric felt he was well prepared. I don't agree, and the fact that they left the boat with a number of issues aside from the sick child seems to point to a level of preparedness below what I'm comfortable with, coupled with a run of bad luck that is usually reserved for me. Both HR and RH abandoned their vessels about the same distance from land. Thus my desire to over prepare, if you want to look at it that way. Yes, I also have extra provisions and stuff. When wildfires swept through socal nearly every summer, we lost power for anywhere from 1 day to 5 days. Guess who had a 5KW generator and 40 gal of gas? I also provided power to 4 of my neighbors who were able to run their fridges, freezers and a TV or radio. My neighbors kept thinking we never lose power, yet there we were, stringing extension cords to their houses so they didn't lose $500 worth of groceries. Good thing someone was prepared...


I see bad stuff regularly, and I can assure based on experiences, even a few today, that preparation is no guarantee of success. Nothing is. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. We tend to want to find fault in the actions of others to justify why "it" won't or can't happen to us. We want to believe that Eric and Charlotte lost their home because of mistakes we won't make, because admitting that there might be a giant Keno wheel of life is scary.

So you're saying some giant Keno wheel determines the outcome of everything, so preparation is useless. OK. You're welcome to that opinion. I'm just going to state that it is the exact opposite from what the Navy trained me for. We did fire drills at 3am to prepare in case we actually DO have a fire. This way no matter what casualty occurs at whatever time, you're... what's that word? Oh yeah, prepared. And we did it over and over and over again until we were so well prepared that we didn't have to think about what we were doing, it was almost automatic. Event happens, you react automatically. New twist - no problem, you've practiced it before. 3 more new twists - no problem, you've practiced those too.

Even when the unimaginable happened - we dealt with it and overcame it and were actually amazed at what we accomplished by applying what we did know to a new problem. Preparation is the cornerstone of the US Navy and the reason why there are so few casualties in the sub fleet. That's what I was trained to do, be prepared. That doesn't guarantee success (man plans and God laughs) but it increases your odds of success.


Just think of that fisherman that washed across the Pacific last year. HR was probably better prepared than him, yet he made it and HR didn't.

I think you're glossing over a major factor: if the fisherman had an EPIRB, he could have pushed the button, gotten rescued just like Eric and Hot Rod, and he wouldn't have made it across the ocean. I will give him this: I think he showed a level of resourcefulness beyond what most people possess, and I still think he knows a lot more about where his crewmate ended up than he's telling anyone. I don't think he killed him, but I think he made the best of that situation, from a survival perspective.


JRM

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

Again, these are JMHO, we don't have to agree, but I always try to have some factual basis or major organization (like the Navy) to explain why I feel the way I do. My opinions are not based on emotion, but on logic, experience, or what I was taught.

Again if RH had made it to their destination, one could point to that and say, "Maybe they were prepared enough." I tend to look at the laundry list of issues with the boat at the time they bailed out and say, "Maybe not."

It's like when I was in school. If I got 100% on a test, mom would say, "You studied, see what happens? You got it from me." If I got a 98% on a test it was, "You utterly FAILED!!! You need to STUDY MORE!!! I never should have rescued you from that dumpster as a baby, what a waste of my time!!"

Things are becoming much clearer now...
no wonder I thought boot camp was a 13 week vacation. LOL

[JRM]

Originally Posted by socaldmax

Again, these are JMHO, we don't have to agree, but I always try to have some factual basis or major organization (like the Navy) to explain why I feel the way I do. My opinions are not based on emotion, but on logic, experience, or what I was taught.

Again if RH had made it to their destination, one could point to that and say, "Maybe they were prepared enough." I tend to look at the laundry list of issues with the boat at the time they bailed out and say, "Maybe not."

Since you seem adamant in your belief, I won't argue. I've replied to this several times, much longer, but deleted it every time because it's pointless. But I desire not to allow your misinterpretation of my position on fatalism to stand for others to see.

I do not believe in a giant wheel that controls the outcome. Far from it. That's just a deflection attempt to avoid dealing with reality. I've spent a chunk of time in a truly fatalistic culture, one where "it's OK if I pass on this blind curve because if it's my time there will be a truck coming the other way, and if not, there won't." They led the world in per capita traffic deaths while I was there, BTW.

However, there still exists the truth, whether convenient or not, of circumstances beyond your preparation and control. If you truly believe that proper preparation will result in positive outcome I think you should shout that from the mountaintops. Better yet, I'd like for you to go down to your local pediatric oncology ward and explain to the parents there that it was their improper preparation that led to their current situation.

Or maybe stuff just happens. That's about as philosophical as I choose to get.

The trick is to recognize it, accept it, and not dwell on it.

JRM

[socaldmax]

Originally Posted by JRM

Since you seem adamant in your belief, I won't argue. I've replied to this several times, much longer, but deleted it every time because it's pointless. But I desire not to allow your misinterpretation of my position on fatalism to stand for others to see.

I do not believe in a giant wheel that controls the outcome. Far from it. That's just a deflection attempt to avoid dealing with reality. I've spent a chunk of time in a truly fatalistic culture, one where "it's OK if I pass on this blind curve because if it's my time there will be a truck coming the other way, and if not, there won't." They led the world in per capita traffic deaths while I was there, BTW.

However, there still exists the truth, whether convenient or not, of circumstances beyond your preparation and control. If you truly believe that proper preparation will result in positive outcome I think you should shout that from the mountaintops. Better yet, I'd like for you to go down to your local pediatric oncology ward and explain to the parents there that it was their improper preparation that led to their current situation.

Or maybe stuff just happens. That's about as philosophical as I choose to get.

The trick is to recognize it, accept it, and not dwell on it.

JRM

Did you just compare preparing for a transoceanic voyage to getting pediatric cancer???

There is absolutely no comparison whatsoever. You cannot prepare yourself or anyone against a disease like that.

On the other hand, if you do not study for a test, don't be surprised if you fail it. That would be a better analogy. I know plenty of people who got lousy grades and blamed it on bad luck, the teacher hates them, anything, except lack of preparation.

I always studied and as a result, got 98-100% on every test. So I'm quite positive that preparation works in that regard, just like practicing emergency drills kept us all alive in the Navy.

Yes, there are unforeseen events that befall all of us. How we react to them, and how well we survive them are for the most part, up to us and how well prepared we are.

No one has control of the seas or the weather or the wind. All you can do is deal with them the best that you can. Checking the weather forecast, buying a parachute anchor and a series drogue would fall under preparation. Dropping sails and deploying the drogue would fall under good seamanship.

Now deciding to single hand into a storm with a sick baby, a toddler, without a drogue, (just for example) would be 3 decisions that I wouldn't make, just for the sake of prudence.

You're welcome to just hop into your boat and hope for the best, maybe it won't be your time. I prefer to try to cover all of the usual bases so if something comes up, more than likely I'll have a solution for it. I hope you don't mind if I choose to be well prepared, I promise it won't affect you at all.

[rgscpat]

At some point it might be good to get back to the Soggy Would-Be Hawaiians. For example, how much is known about the qualifications of James Lane (Hot Rod) and his crew?
Another thought: How accurately can we predict the success or failure of any given prospective voyage?
A fine point, perhaps is that the Kauffmans thought that baby Lyra was well when they departed.

[Sand crab]

It's pretty evident that Hot Rod, his son and his mom had virtually no sailing experience. At least one of the other 2 members had owned the "Bataman" themed tri but it isn't clear if it was just a liveaboard in SF or they sailed it.
I think that if any of them were more than novice sailors then they wouldn't have attempted this expedition in that boat. No engines, no keels, no daggerboards, etc.

[scotty c-m]

As the saying goes: "Chance favors the prepared mind."

On a continuum, Flying Hawaiian, Sedona, the Gunboat, and Rebel Heart go from completely unprepared to some chance of sucess. The Flying Hawaiian never had a chance from the build to the crew to the plan. The Sedona was slightly better built, but in no shape for that voyage and leaving into a storm is just not credible even for novices. The Gunboat was a well prepared vessel but they left into a storm. Figure that out. These three voyages should never have left the dock.

The Rebel Heart had at least some preparation and some skills. While they may not have had enough of either, they at least, were not so completely out of whack as the other three.

Since this is a Flyin' Why'n? thread: I wonder where they are now. I hope they are all well.

[Wrong]

Originally Posted by Therapy

I am curious. What medical help did the child obtain?

I assume that if before the times of Sat phone and EPIRBS they would not have gone at all. Because every parent knows kids get sick fast. They also get over things fast.
I would never venture out like that but it is really because I would not tolerate being cooped up with kids underfoot all the time. I don't care much for kids. Kids belong, for the most part, in the cave........with mom, the known primary care giver for small children. Some thing to do with genetics I believe.

As I always say, they should be issued a cage at birth. Right along with the potato in every pot.

[Sand crab]

We are now waiting for the full vid and other details from the CG. One of the guys at SA filed a Freedom of Information Act request and it will take a couple of weeks. Could be interesting.

[socaldmax]

Originally Posted by scotty c-m

As the saying goes: "Chance favors the prepared mind."

On a continuum, Flying Hawaiian, Sedona, the Gunboat, and Rebel Heart go from completely unprepared to some chance of sucess. The Flying Hawaiian never had a chance from the build to the crew to the plan. The Sedona was slightly better built, but in no shape for that voyage and leaving into a storm is just not credible even for novices. The Gunboat was a well prepared vessel but they left into a storm. Figure that out. These three voyages should never have left the dock.

The Rebel Heart had at least some preparation and some skills. While they may not have had enough of either, they at least, were not so completely out of whack as the other three.

Since this is a Flyin' Why'n? thread: I wonder where they are now. I hope they are all well.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Hot Rod starts selling plans and DIY catamaran kits.

[Therapy]

Originally Posted by rgscpat

At some point it might be good to get back to the Soggy Would-Be Hawaiians. For example, how much is known about the qualifications of James Lane (Hot Rod) and his crew?
Another thought: How accurately can we predict the success or failure of any given prospective voyage?
A fine point, perhaps is that the Kauffmans thought that baby Lyra was well when they departed.

A whole lot is known about Lane's lack of qualifications.

Nothing is known about the crew because no one knows who they are yet. Freedom of information forms have been submitted but there are delays because it was a rescue and some are claiming protection of identities.

[Cap Erict3]

Originally Posted by Sand crab

We are now waiting for the full vid and other details from the CG. One of the guys at SA filed a Freedom of Information Act request and it will take a couple of weeks. Could be interesting.

In my mind the interesting detail for discussion would be valuable ways that the individual that made the request could make better use of his time.

Sailing maybe?


------------------------------
Looking for another pretty place to work on the boat.