Running From Weather

[SV Windrush II]

To get back on track, i think other posters and myself on this thread are refferig to someone who is already on or near their boat and it is in sailing condition.
Aparently there was many skippers who made the decision to get out of the way because the AIS was lit up like a christmass tree. So we are not the only people who share the opinion to leave early.
And sailing blind?? Who does that anymore? I definately do not. Especially during typhoon season. Good thing someone invented iridium Go, Delorme, weatherfax and many other products to check weather offshore.

[Taichungman]

Originally Posted by Catalysis

Yep, Graham is a thoughtful Skipper....

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yep Catalysis, thoughtful but also a responsible delivery Skipper. Main thing is to keep the crew and boat safe to intended destination. He did and does year after year.

This post has been off course as much as Irma has. I think the OP wanted to know if it was better to run or stay put with a Cat 5 bearing down on you. There is not a definitive answer for this as it depends on certain conditions to be met.

I still believe if and I say IF.....you have been keeping track of the weather conditions ( have 48hrs head start) , you are on your boat, your boat and you are ready to sail......then it's best to pick some place South of your destination and sail or motor sail if need be. If you have 48 hours head start and can make 6kts sail/power/both, then you should be able to get to a safer position.

Being prepared should be a skipper's job 24 hrs a day. Graham carries a Sat phone and keeps in touch with a land based weather observer, who notifies him of any noteworthy weather condition in his path or one sneaking up behind. The SF50 we were delivering did not carry any weather gathering devices.

Is it taking a chance? Maybe, but I think better than being a bulls eye for a CAT5.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

Nope, you have misread my post, Ken. I'm saying that your dodging a 40-50 knot storm is quite different in potential risk than dodging Irma. Failure to avoid your storm at sea means a day or two of discomfort in conditions that we have all endured at some time. Failure to avoid Irma at sea means near certain death. I see these choices as categorically different.

As for us, we've been caught a couple of times by out of season cyclones here in the SP. One at Raul Island in the Kermadecs... that one traveled several hundred miles south of its predicted path, causing our supposedly safe anchorage to become a lee shore when the eye went over us. Not nice, but it was only a Cat 1, and we survived at sea with little difficulty once we escaped the anchorage. This was in May... season ends officially in April.

The other was in Vanuatu, and it popped up nearby with no advance warning, early in October (season begins in November, usually no activity until December). The forecast track was right over our location. We beat some 80 miles to windward to get to a cyclone anchorage. Then the storm deviated from predictions and went elsewhere.

Oh... there was another one as well. In New Caledonia around the first week of November. A small cyclone was predicted to pass between NC and Vanuatu. We chose to depart from Noumea (on the west coast of NC) and head back to Australia, directly away from the likely path and with a decent head start. Had a good passage with strong trades. Never came close, that one

So no, we don't chose to be deer in the headlights when there is a viable alternative. We also choose to depart from cyclone areas before the season begins. And we do not trust the predictions for paths. Dunno about the Atlantic hurricanes, but the SP cyclones often deviate wildly from expectations. This would strongly affect my reaction to an impending Cat 5 storm.

Jim

Then it sounds as if you do exactly what we do with a proactive approach. Stay away from hurricane and typhoon zones during the season, and get out of the way of oncoming storms.

We have no disagreement on this subject. If others choose to stand in the way like deer in the headlights.... their choice, their problem.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Part of it is a whole lot of us, once we get very far offshore at all, we hear no news. Your flying blind, you get no new info.

SSB, SAT phones, cellphones, SIM card internet. Plus, I'm refering to island hopping and coastal cruising.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by SecondBase

The brisk walking pace is real for monohulls. We had to make a decision on Tuesday to run from Miami. The run only succeeded with effort, some risk, and a lot of timely information provided by forum members.

We ran to a safer location.

No surge (~ 14 feet up)
No fetch (7 feet from shore)
No current
Wind blocked
Limited risk of damage from other boats despite the pictures you see of island harbors.
Supportive community around us.
We've been offered a house to use.

98 people have been amazing to us during this journey and I'll always remember them while I try to forget the 2 who weren't.

Satisfied with the choices so far but we'll have to see how they appear in hindsight.

Miami just got a tornado warning. Glad I'm not there.

Congratulations on a job well-done! And good luck with the storm.

[SV Windrush II]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

SSB, SAT phones, cellphones, SIM card internet. Plus, I'm refering to island hopping and coastal cruising.

Exactly!

[Kenomac]

Glad we moved and now safely anchored here in Uvala Soline for two days.

I think people like us who live on the hook much of the year are more aware of the weather, what it can do and the consequences of sitting around on one's arse and doing nothing. It's not rocket science.

[SV Windrush II]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Glad we moved and now safely anchored here in Uvala Soline for two days.

I think people like us who live on the hook much of the year are more aware of the weather, what it can do and the consequences of sitting around on one's arse and doing nothing. It's not rocket science.

Good job Ken! And my sentiments exactly

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Glad we moved and now safely anchored here in Uvala Soline for two days.

I think people like us who live on the hook much of the year are more aware of the weather, what it can do and the consequences of sitting around on one's arse and doing nothing. It's not rocket science.

Be at ground zero when a cat5 storm arrives, or be a couple of hundred miles away?

Well you'd think it wouldn't be rocket science....

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by SV Windrush II

Im with the OP on this s one. Especially now with all the periction systems available and satellite internet available and this particular storm path, the likelyhood of it turning south across the islands was prettymuch a zero % chance.
Typhoons in general are very predictable if you understand what they need for fuel.

But hen there is alot of factors involved in running from a storm that would include the confidence of the captain, how the boat is equiped, and how important the boat is to the owner. For example, a liveaboard owner is going to try to protect his or her home much more seriously than a boat that is used for charter or vacation boat that is not needed for living in.

Forecasts are quite good these days, but they often have at least some variation for hurricanes. Then you have storms like Mitch...who didnt read the forecast (read about the loss of the Phantom). Even IRMA in this case has made a significant change in her forecast landfall. And see the tragically foolish case of the Bounty.

My perspective, is that playing dodge ball with a hurricane is very risky business and not a game Im willing to play to try and save a boat. My hurricane strategy is simple:

1. Confirm Insurance is Current
2. Secure boat as best I can
3. Board Flight Outta Dodge!


Better yet, dont hang out in hurricane alley for hurricane season to start with (written from the Chiriqui Highlands Panamá[emoji41] ).

[SV Windrush II]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

Forecasts are quite good these days, but they often have at least some variation for hurricanes. Then you have storms like Mitch...who didnt read the forecast (read about the loss of the Phantom). Even IRMA in this case has made a significant change in her forecast landfall. And see the tragically foolish case of the Bounty.

My perspective, is that playing dodge ball with a hurricane is very risky business and not a game Im willing to play to try and save a boat. My hurricane strategy is simple:

1. Confirm Insurance is Current
2. Secure boat as best I can
3. Board Flight Outta Dodge!


Better yet, dont hang out in hurricane alley for hurricane season to start with (written from the Chiriqui Highlands Panamá[emoji41] ).

Yes bro, better to not be here at all during hurricane season but....

I have been tracking Irma since it birthed in eastern Atlantic. At that time (aproximately 7-8 days ago) it was forcasted to hit BVI and Florida and low and behold, that is exactly what it did. Yes it altered course a tad, west florida coast instead of east florida coast. But if i was in BVI, the last direction i would ever think about escaping to would be anywhere near florida.

And 7 days sailing i could have almost been to Panama by now, not that i would have headed for Panama, i think a more southern passage would be better this time of year

By the way i am on a mooring near typhoon ally here in the Philippines but a 2 day sail to a typhoon free area so no probs for me

But stayig out of BVI during hurricane season is even better

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by SV Windrush II

Yes bro, better to not be here at all during hurricane season but....

I have been tracking Irma since it birthed in eastern Atlantic. At that time (aproximately 7-8 days ago) it was forcasted to hit BVI and Florida and low and behold, that is exactly what it did. Yes it altered course a tad, west florida coast instead of east florida coast. But if i was in BVI, the last direction i would ever think about escaping to would be anywhere near florida.

And 7 days sailing i could have almost been to Panama by now, not that i would have headed for Panama, i think a more southern passage would be better this time of year

By the way i am on a mooring near typhoon ally here in the Philippines but a 2 day sail to a typhoon free area so no probs for me

But stayig out of BVI during hurricane season is even better

Agree that IF I chose to run from IRMA it would be to the S...and WAY early.

I think making your move VERY early is critical. You just never know what last minute issues you may encounter. In Belize for example, its best to run for the Rio Dulce at least a few days ahead. I know folks who have cut it closer and not made it...they didnt die, but they were certainly in life threating circumastances.

I have made this run ahead of tropical weather many times, but always WAY early...early enough that its not really playing "dodge ball" with a hurricane, but days in advance where even a major track change would not create a threat. Anything closer and the boat is not leaving the dock w me on it.

As a result, Ive run boats to the Rio and had it prove to be unecessary, but better safe than sorry.

A key difference in the E Carib is that if it does change track to intercept you...there is really nowhere to hide.

[a64pilot]

If you were in Miami or the Keys is on thing, however me being in Brunswick Ga, where is my escape route?
Until recently this thing was supposed to run up the East coast and I would be running from a well protected Marina into the unknown.
Now if I know then what is known now, I would have headed for Charleston or maybe further North.
However when it's predicted path changed to the West coast of Fl, it seemed the thing to do would be to hunker down.
In my case it's not just my life I would be playing with if I tried to run,but my Wife's as well.

What you may be doing is gambling your life to save a boat. Now my boat is my home, and I finally after three years have her just about the way I want her, and she is irreplaceable.
I doubt that if Irma takes her, I will try again.

However bad I'm going to feel if we lose our home, it is nothing to how I would feel losing my Wife

[SV Windrush II]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

If you were in Miami or the Keys is on thing, however me being in Brunswick Ga, where is my escape route?
Until recently this thing was supposed to run up the East coast and I would be running from a well protected Marina into the unknown.
Now if I know then what is known now, I would have headed for Charleston or maybe further North.
However when it's predicted path changed to the West coast of Fl, it seemed the thing to do would be to hunker down.
In my case it's not just my life I would be playing with if I tried to run,but my Wife's as well.

What you may be doing is gambling your life to save a boat. Now my boat is my home, and I finally after three years have her just about the way I want her, and she is irreplaceable.
I doubt that if Irma takes her, I will try again.

However bad I'm going to feel if we lose our home, it is nothing to how I would feel losing my Wife

Yes in your case there is nothing you can do but keep yourself and your family safe. Hopefully Irma will poof out before it gets to you
Running away from storms is very dependant on a good escape route

[SecondBase]

Originally Posted by mikedefieslife

I've always wonder when people say oh there's a storm coming, I'd better go this way or that way to get away from it.



A sailboat travels at a brisk walking pace. Seldom do I hear people in the street say, oh it's starting to snow if I walk in this direction I can get away from it into milder weather.



[emoji106]

I'm quite pleased with the walkabout that took the boat out of Miami and behind surge-protecting locks mid-Florida even though it moved us closer to the eventual eye. Let's see if I'm singing the same tune tomorrow morning !

To your point, achieving that "at a brisk walking pace" required both awareness and a decision back on Tuesday. If we had made the decision on Wednesday it would've been too late.

The major risk, lack of trip planning, was mitigated by the knowledge and suggestions of the forum - Belize Sailor, a64, Matt, The Sky, Ann and many others providing raw data & skilled analysis. We only achieved proper planning, event-by-event, as we moved along because of the help of others we didn't know but learned to trust and respect deeply.