In early December typhoon In-fa formed close to the equator and very quickly turned into a Cat 4. As big as this was, it was still not judged a super typhoon nor a Cat 5.
For recent super Cat 5 cyclones we can look at Bopha (Pablo) and Haiyan (Yolanda).
Nona formed very close to the equator as the other two, however was too close to the Philippines to build very strong. Further, it is my position that another factor is coming into play. The upper air temperatures for early development of Nona was too warm. Lack of cloud cover East of the Philippines indicates moisture is not condensing into clouds. It is mandatory for moisture to condense in order to release the latent heat of evaporation and feed the cyclone with new energy.
This btw accounts for the rapid intensification of Nona when it approached Mindoro Island and Puerta Galera. Nona met a strong cold Southern wind
coming down the West Philippine Sea. Initially this caused a giant amount of water
to condense within Nona and Nona became stronger as it crossed Mindoro.
LLCC is simply called TD Nine C. It is still below 5 degrees lat, however, has moved North despite typhoon Ula which is almost directly South.
It is not until Nine C reaches 5 degrees lat that rapid intensification should be expected.
Three factors in play will likely make Nine C a Cat 5 super typhoon
#1 Like Pablo and Yolanda, it is forming very far from the Philippines and will have many days to build before reaching it. In fact it is forming way out East of the date line and will have at least one or two more days.
#2 It is later in the season with more cooler air coming from the North. Further the tilt of the earth means the sun is less likely to warm the air preventing necessary cloud formation.
#3 Typhone Ufa almost directly South is spinning in a clockwise fashion. It will help draw winds along the equator that are traveling from West to East. The two typhoons help reinforce this flow and both will become stronger.
Only a day after first predictions for Ufa, the JTWC is already being proven wrong. Ufa has intensified stronger and faster than forecasted.
I am certainly not saying I am anywhere near being right and am admittedly an alarmist.
Bottom line, Cat 5 Super typhoon to hit Philippines in window Jan 8-11.
Do not be lulled into thinking just because it isn't forecasted to do much over next 3 days that this will not occur. Nine-C cannot do much until it rises a little more off the equator.